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146 comments on Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

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byron calkins on June 26, 2008 - 4:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi everyone. New member as of tonight(early morning). Just thought I would say that this is a really cool place to tune into.

6 months ago I was wondering why the price of gas kept going up and up.....!!. Did some Googling(sp) and stumbled across this great little community, "Boy was I educated". This is my real name, I'm a student @ NMSU in Las Cruces NM. Seems like everyone goes by some sort of screen name around here; but for me, I'll keep it real. Anyway I don't have much to add to the fray, but I would like ask this:

If we open up(drill) all of our "off limit/closed areas" in the US and used those windfall profits/taxes to support food stamps and programs like Wic, would we be able to buy time for the less fortunate folks here in the USA by exporting this new "high dollar" crude source to fund our poor? I have a feeling after reading this TOD website we might all need a little help in the near future.

Thanks everyone, this is good reading.

P.S Sorry my first post is off topic as Gail E. Tverberg has put together some very compelling and easy to understand info. Lots of hard work. Thanks for the tutorial.

One last question to Gail. Why does peak oil interest you?

~byron calkins

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noutram on June 26, 2008 - 6:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Welcome to the fray -what are you studying?

I've been lurking here for about two and a half years and it has opened my eyes on many areas -not just Energy but financial and biological stuff too. Have a read of Nate Hagens 'Hyperbolic Discount Function' post -classic stuff!
(Also here: HyperBolic Discount Function)

Last summer I decided to summarise all I had learnt -here's my take in a nutshell: "Peak Oil Joining The Dots" -by Nick Outram

...and a nice little -updated- timeline, assuming we hit some sort of PO 'crisis event'/mass recognition around 2012:
Peak Oil Speculative Timeline ~2012 'Event'

Enjoy.

Nick Outram [Telecommunications Consultant and 'PO enthusiast'...]

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PaulusP on June 26, 2008 - 6:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello byron,

"would we be able to buy time for the less fortunate folks here in the USA by exporting this new "high dollar" crude source to fund our poor?"

As the US currently imports almost 2/3 of its oil needs, exporting it does not do any good. After all, the US will have to import just that amount more than if it is not exported. So it will be a waste of energy and money.

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netfind on June 26, 2008 - 2:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Opening up Alaska and the U.S. coastal regions for drilling at this juncture probably would have nil effect on the timing of global peak production. It would not change the shape of the global Hubbert curve since Hubbert's method assumes that all the significant remaining oil fields would be searched for, discovered, and used in the normal pattern, and that we wouldn't be so stupid as to ban promising areas from drilling just to keep from disturbing the habitat of the yellow speckled squirrel. If we were to proceed with the normal search and exploit pattern now, it would just try to catch us up a tiny fraction to the theoretical Hubbert projected peak, which we're passing already.

Economist types often fault Hubbert's method for projecting the global peak just because it was so accurate in predicting the U.S. peak. The global peak, they have long said, will involve such a price climb that, as in all commodity cycles, the higher price will bring a rush of new supply on the market. This makes some sense if you consider the basic geologic fact that about half the oil in a field is left there because it becomes uneconomic to recover. That's a huge amount of oil just waiting for the right economics. But I would direct their attention to the real world example of the U.S. peak in 1970. The price of oil climbed some 900% over the 10 years following this peak. This astonishing price climb did not bring the left behind oil rushing to market and did not alter the close following of U.S. production to Hubbert's curve.

Another big factor missed by economists with all the left behind oil, as well as shale, oil sands, and all unconventional oil, is flow rate. We have been used to conventional production where oil under high natural pressure comes spewing out of the ground already made up for us and ready to put into a pipeline. This is a vastly different type of flow rate than having to grind up, heat up, lift up, and manufacture oil using vast amounts of energy in the process. They don't understand ELM (the Export Land Model) or net energy. High flow rate net exported net energy is what sets oil prices.

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Nick on June 26, 2008 - 5:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

" The price of oil climbed some 900% over the 10 years following this peak. This astonishing price climb did not bring the left behind oil rushing to market"

What about US price controls? Didn't they greatly diminish the price signal?

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Gail the Actuary on June 26, 2008 - 9:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for your first post. It is great to have you on board.

I am working on a post on why I think we should drill offshore, which perhaps will be up in the next few days. My view on this is probably different from that a lot of peak oil folks on the subject.

I am interested in Peak Oil because it seems like it is the most important subject to the world today. As an actuary, I have been in the business of making forecasts about what insurance rates need to be in the future, and what claim payouts will be (and a whole lot of other forecasts). I became aware early on that Peak Oil would have a huge impact on the insurance industry, and would make most of the projections that actuaries are making invalid. These are links to a couple of my first articles, in insurance / actuarial publications:

Oil Shortages: The Next Katrina?
Our Finite World: Implications for Actuaries

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SwordsOfDamocles on June 26, 2008 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=768919717

The EIA assessments on ANWR and releasing new land for drilling have pretty much said, it's going to take a long time and it's going to do next to nothing for oil prices.

If we open up(drill) all of our "off limit/closed areas" in the US and used those windfall profits/taxes to support food stamps and programs like Wic, would we be able to buy time for the less fortunate folks here in the USA by exporting this new "high dollar" crude source to fund our poor?

Well, first of all there is nowhere near enough crude oil in these areas to allow us to become an exporter of oil, if thats what you are saying, and taxing oil companies is not going to increase production any, doing this sort of welfare thing would do nothing but rob peter to pay paul, not really any sort of solution.

Byron Calkins,

Glad to see another college student here on theoildrum, its frustrating how little people our age understand much less care about these issues. I've been on theoildrum for almost a year now( I have another name too), It's definitely a process and believe me when I say what you may be experiencing now is just the beginning, you have alot more to learn.

Good Luck,
Crews at the University of Oklahoma

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SwordsOfDamocles on June 26, 2008 - 4:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

. sorry it double posted

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bmcnett on June 26, 2008 - 11:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Byron. In response to your question about America's offshore oil, I offer you a handy device:

1 million barrels of oil = one hour U.S. consumption
1 billion barrels of oil = one month U.S. consumption
1 trillion barrels of oil = one human lifetime ...

With this device, one can quickly make sense of the scale of an oil resource. A billion barrels sounds like a lot, but it's only one month.

The ANWR field in Alaska, for example, has about 20 billion barrels, or 20 months of supply for the U.S.

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Gail the Actuary on June 27, 2008 - 11:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks. I hadn't seen that before.

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146 comments on Peak Oil Overview - June 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

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