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"Now, imagine in your mind that instead of reversing those very very steep declines, the declines continue. There is a pretty good reason to think that the declines will continue as there are no particular projects going on that would reverse the declines. You will pretty clearly see that in both the cases of natural gas and crude, by the time the outer shelf production comes online, it is *not* a 7% difference, it's a *100%* difference. Simply put, it'll be the only oil and natural gas we make. I'd call that pretty bleeding significant."
Which is why the focus should not be on drilling at all. But on producing a meaningful supply of alternative energies by 2030.
If alternatives worth mentioning existed then I would be inclined to agree with you. As they don't however, the flat spot on the decline curve that opening up for drilling now would make 10 years out just may be the breathing room the makes the difference between life and death.
It isn't like we have anything better to do with the drill rigs.
It isn't like we have anything better to do with the drill rigs.
Other than working over the existing well stock, and drilling sidetracks or infills in existing patterns. Otherwise you'd be looking at an extra 5-10% decline per year.
Fear not! My 11 year old son is working on a nuclear-powered car battery that will hold a charge for one hundred years... And if that fails (he's a little short on the plutonium to run some tests), there's always the Big Fella in the sky to save the day!
Regards, Matt B
Smiling though gritted teeth.
Actually, there is such a thing as a nuclear-powered battery:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_battery
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7843868
Unfortunately, there's not much chance of buying one at your local Wal-Mart just yet.
"any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant."
That is incredibly short-sighted thinking. It completely misses the reality that the more dear oil becomes, the more important each additional marginal barrel of oil becomes.
This is like saying, "we don't have enough food now, so we won't try to grow anymore becasue it won't completely solve the problem of hunger." Or, "If we can't save everybody, then we shouldn't save anybody."
Its insane, really.
actually this is more like them saying "this isn't really going to save anybody, so let's not waste our resources on it, let's use our resorces on something that will save at least a few of us: Renewable Energy"
By your logic we should stop using any oil immediately because this would bring 100% focus on alteratives and solve the problem faster.
Meanwhile, are you going to eat your children?
pretty sure that's not what he said... he said we should stop drilling, not stop using oil... literacy has it's perks, look into it...