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45 comments on What you can do about Peak Oil and Petrol Prices
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45 comments on What you can do about Peak Oil and Petrol Prices
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GAIA Host Collective
"Conservation is a good thing, we all agree. But it will not save us from the impending Peak Oil catastrophe."
It buys us time, saves us money and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
"The problem is that as soon as oil production begins to decline (this year or 2 at most), conservation will not cut demand enough to reduce the rate of oil extraction, and depletion scenarios will be much the same."
I think you're underestimating just how much we can conserve. Eventually, yes, production declines to below even frugal use. But that would be some decades away, and there are plenty of non fossil fuel using alternatives, as noted in James Ward's article and my own.
"Not too far in the future (10 or 20 years??), oil depletion means that highways and power grids cannot be maintained. When they go out, it's back to the stone age."
You are perhaps unaware that between the Stone Age and our modern age, there were the Bronze Age, Iron Age, Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. We are certainly dependent on oil, but we need not be. It would be a work of some decades to remove the dependence, and involve much creativity and effort, and definitely lead to a different society and economy, but would be the end of society and economy.
"That is what people should focus on -- what do you do when nothing comes in on the highways -- food, goods, medicine."
You are apparently unaware that in the days before the internal combustion engine, we had not only interstate but international trade. It was trade of considerably lower volume than today, and imported goods cost a lot more, but necessities and luxuries both were brought to and from people across the world.
A sense of urgency is helpful. A sense of DOOOOOOM!! is not.
Unfortunately, we can't control our own behavior to conserve, and we can't get the other 3/4ths of the world to conserve. Thus, depletion will occur at the same rate and not buy much if any time.
We have wasted the easiest resources for farming, mining, and industry. And when there is no transportation (it nearly all runs on oil), we are back in the stone age. Read this: http://www.countercurrents.org/po-norman181006.htm
We don't have any trains that run or coal or wood, and both will be difficult to get without oil. No trucks, no wagons, no chainsaws.
We don't have, nor are we manufacturing anything for a post oil economy. We have few horses and wagons, and it would take decades to get that in place (it is hard to mass produce horses and mules). It is time for peak oil contingency and risk management planning.
Speak for yourself.
We haven't tried.
Unsurprisingly, if you never try to do something, then you won't succeed.
But plenty of trains run on electricity, and you can create that using all sorts of ways that don't require oil.
And you can always produce liquid fuels using coal if you must (although I don't recommend it) - enough to keep the trains running even if the car fleet is forced to become much more efficient or get used less.
Actually we do still have steam trains (saw one pull in to my station the other day). Building new steam powered locomotives is going to be easier and cheaper than trying to electrify distant inter city rail lines, although highly unlikely. I think that CNG running a gas turbines is much more likely for a large train than it is for a car.
Termoil
I not sure where you get this information from.
From an engineering perspective electrified rail has a lot of advantages over steam locomotives or in fact CNG power for this application:
- the technology currently exists
- the efficiency in power generation will be considerably higher for a centralised power station compared to small local power generation.
- electrified rail provides a seamless transition into transport that is fully powered by renewables.
- electrification provides for regenerative braking which is difficult for a stand alone locomotive.
Europe has an entire network of electrified rail. I appreciate the issues associated with population density but it is not unreasonable that in australia we at least have electrification on the main trafic routes between capital cities.
Phoenix,
I was simply pointing out that we do still have older technolgy which is still running today that can run directly on coal and wood. Trains really are one of the most versatile forms of land transport when it comes to diversification of fuel and electricity is proabably the top of the pile. But electrification needs density and regular services to make both the installation and maintenance of it worthwhile.
I have spoken with Tim Fischer about electrification and it just doesn't make sense at the moment until we have a thoroughly thought out integrated rail freight management plan. Tims focus is on achieveing the 15 key hubs that we need in Australia to distribute freight and first get the tracks up to standard.
Just by re-aligning the track betweeen Sydney and Melbourne you can shave a whopping 100Km off the current distance but it will cost an enormous amount of money. Throw electrification on top and you are looking at potentially a multi billion dollar project just for one line that may have at best half a dozen freight trains a day on it.
My point is that there are other options than just large scale expensive projects where the cost/benefit analysis would, I am guessing, be questionable. A gas turbine CNG fueled Hybrid locomotive with a pantograph attached for when it does get into a city would blow the doors of full electrification on a whole range of measures and would be far more doable in your five year timeframe.
cjwirth,
I'm right there with ya, believe me, when it comes to "we're all gonna die!" doomer days, I have had some doozies.
I agree with your sentiment, if handled poorly, PO + climate change could kick our collective asses.
Stop reading the Kunstler and LATOC for a while (they will still be there for you when you get back), read some Heinberg and Archdruid Report instead.
Don't worry about the 3/4 of the people on the planet who are doing the wrong thing, you can't change that. Don't worry about the other 7 Bil and counting, for that matter. Focus on what you can do. I wasted a precious year trying to convince my family that PO was not a whacko consiracy theory, all I did was piss 'em off. It finally occurred to me that the only thing I could do was prepare, on my own, as much as I was able, in the narrow window of time that is still available to me. Buy a couple cases of beans and a couple big bags of rice. I did, it made me feel better. I have about 6 months of food now, all stuff that we eat anyway, and all bought when it was on sale. If you have skills that will be useful post-peak, that's great. If you don't, now is the time to learn. Ditto with whatever you think will be important in terms of preparation.
The people who are close to you will be going through their own personal "oh shit" moments just like we all did. Focus on spending your time now preparing to be there for them when they are in need. You will feel better, I promise.
I find sometimes I need to freak myself out a bit with the doomer perspective on things just as a motivational jolt. But I try not to let it run my life.
We are living at the height of this civilization, judging from the fact that you are posting to this site with your computer and can string together a coherent sentence I am assuming that you are a middle to upper class westerner. In other words, compared to every single one of your ancestors, from cave dwelling days to present you are incredibly, unimaginably, obscenely wealthy. Take advantage of your wealth while you still have it and prepare. I don't mean get into debt (unless you think hyperinflation will magically whisk your bills away, but don't count on it), I mean use your brains to figure out what you think will be important and do it.
So you think the world in a few years' time will be short horses and mules? Take up animal husbandry and you have a safe and secure post-peak job, for example. I won't tell you what to do, you need to figure it out for yourself. But you get my point.
Also, take care not to accelerate the timeline. We are well into the beginning of the plateau now, is there rioting in the streets yet? -OK bad question, there is, but the pain will hit us last and less severely, like economic downturns always do. By all means, plan for the worst case scenario, but judging from the experts' reports, things look more like the midline right now.
Un homme averti en vaut deux.
-Old French folk wisdom
"A forewarned man is worth two."
Hi Mash, Thanks for the comments. I don't read those things, but rather do my own research, and these studies reveal peak oil impacts that are quite dire. We are running out of cheap oil and there are no real alternatives. Google or Yahoo search: peak oil impacts, and you will find my 50 page study. Others comment that it is the best explanation of peak oil impacts. You might try the report on your family, it is hard to deny.
It took 1.5 years to convince my family that Peak Oil is real. The next step is to convince them that they need to prepare, like find a new location, as they will die where they are.
I am not worried, as I moved to a most pleasant and very sustainable area of the world, bought 5 hectares (12 acres) of rich land on a river, am working with the local population so that people here are Peak Oil impact ready. This is working out better than I ever imagined. I inform other people and family members, but don't worry about them.
Anyone want to retire here? Get in touch. clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com
You did better than me.
Despite the increasing cost of good, despite the fact my step-father has raised his prices twice this year to cope with rising Diesel prices, despite the fact my mother is quitting her job, despite the fact we're in debt for tens of thousands of dollars, despite the fact we have hundreds of thousands of dollars in machinery sitting in the yard going unused, Mum and the SF are going to look at a campervan this weekend...
I barely managed to talk them out of buying one of those freaking houses on wheels (but that may have been fuel cost alone).
"A sense of doom is not".I agree,Kiashu.However,a sense of reality is a hell of a lot more than helpful,it is essential.My sense of reality tells me a lot - in brief -
There is a plethora of actions,either individual or collective,which are effective.
The most effective actions are those which need leadership which is currently lacking.
The current cultural climate is putting very little,if any,pressure on the leadership to actually lead.
At the moment I don't see any way out of this dilemma.That doesn't make me a doomer,just a realist.