131 comments on Saudi Arabia Announces They Will Produce More Oil
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131 comments on Saudi Arabia Announces They Will Produce More Oil
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Exactly. As others have pointed out, the Saudi's less than a month ago announced a production increase of 300K barrels to 9.5M. It seems that no matter how often the Saudis claim to increase production, the amount being produced never seems to actually top 9.5M barrels.
Here's my latest graphic of mothly KSA production through April 2008 (note that their first peak occurred in November 1980);
The HL for KSA from annual data looks as follows (the 2005 arrow shifted a little in converting from Excel to jpg):
and on a monthly basis:
Funny looking Hubbert Curve. Are you sure the final shape won't be a slowly-declining plateau to a cliff?
That is, just keep burning 'til it runs out?
Regards, Matt B
Would not be the first time there would be a cliff. But if the trend continues, then the pronouncements of the Kingdom are fairly meaningless. AND to flatten the curve requires considerable growth of not "capacity" (the US has a "capacity" of 20 million barrels per day, it's just unable to pump that much from the existing "capacity"), but real production making the cliff even more probable.
Matt, it's not the normal Hubbert curve but a "linearization" of a Hubbert curve. It's a mathematical technique to estimate the total oil reserve from the oil production so far.
Maybe an HL expert can explain further.
Thanks, Bob. I get a little overwhelmed by all these charts; and for that matter, the nitty gritty. No doubt I should be seeking more mainstream answers to my simple "What The?" questions (though many of you do dumb it down for me; thanks!), but of course easy answers are hard to find.
Regards, Matt B