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72 comments on The devil is in the production details of Saudi Arabia

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rainman on June 23, 2008 - 4:32am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Hello.

I read about the IPSA line yesterday (Iraq-SA). It's a intersting theory, and could of course be used to mask the SA decline (politics).

From: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4200
>
>Nate Hagens on June 22, 2008 - 7:38pm
>
>How easy would it be for some hundreds of thousands of barrels that originally are
>pumped from Iraq to end up counted as 'a production increase' from KSA? I know
>there was a conspiracy as such a year or so ago, given that much of the exported
>oil from both countries flows through the same pipelines, though I don't have the >source.
>
>Great story, Paul Chefurka-
> http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Iraq%20and%20Saudi%20Arabia.html
>
>
>"In Locked Down Iraq, Oil Still Flows Unmetered While Questions Run in Circles"
> http://www.innercitypress.com/icg022406.html

>From today's post:
>"Saudi Arabia will increase production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day of >oil by the end of next year and could add a further 2.5 million barrels a day if >needed, from some new giant fields, Naimi said.

2.5 million barrels if needed, from some "new" giant fields...

Well, the IPSA line was originally designed for 1,65 MBD but it could have been upgraded to about 2,7 MBD using DRA (Drag Reducing Agent) and new higher hp pumps so maybe, just maybe, the 2.5MBD from some "new" fields, could come from some "old" giant fields in Iraq...

See p20, in the report from Baker Energy Forum:
http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/TrendsinMiddleEast_Alternat...

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nrgyman2000 on June 23, 2008 - 4:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If this is the case, could some production be counted twice?

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Pitt the Elder on June 23, 2008 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

> How easy would it be for some hundreds of thousands of barrels that originally are
> pumped from Iraq to end up counted as 'a production increase' from KSA?

Very difficult, not to mention head-scratchingly improbable.

Of the recent 2Mb/d exported, about 0.5Mb/d goes from the north to Turkey and 1.5Mb/d of the remainder is taken out of Basra by tanker. Those tankers are tracked (there were 29 in May, according to Platts), meaning it would be very difficult to secretly send that oil elsewhere.

Occam's Razor - the idea that explanations with fewer assumptions tend to be better - is a useful heuristic to apply in cases like these. In this case, the simplest explanation is probably that the Iraqi and Saudi oil numbers are, boringly enough, just what they say they are.

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Bellistner on June 25, 2008 - 6:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Apparently you'd be able to tell the difference between Iraqi Oil and KSA Oil when you did a lab analysis on it (if anyone was indeed looking).

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72 comments on The devil is in the production details of Saudi Arabia

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