218 comments on The Ultimate Fight?: The Singularity v. Resource Depletion and the Limits to Growth
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218 comments on The Ultimate Fight?: The Singularity v. Resource Depletion and the Limits to Growth
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Couple of other things. First, above I meant "Things are not happening as quickly as he envisions." This is especially striking if you read some of his earlier books.
The other thing is that Kurzweil keeps claiming that due to all of his medical monitoring and the supplements he takes, he has the body of a 40-year old. You have to wonder then why he looks like a 60-year old.
Finally, the thing that struck me as absurd in the book was that he was implying that our energy demands were going down due to increased efficiencies, when the observation is just the opposite: Demand for energy is climbing.
A capitalist economy will use up whatever energy is cheaply accessible.
But, the essential point is that energy has become a smaller part of GDP than it was 30 years ago, and that means increased efficiency has indeed occurred.
Increased efficiency doesn't lead to less energy use, it leads to greater wealth for the same energy use. You know the old saying, waste not want not.
The market is not going to reduce energy use until it's forced to by supply and demand imbalances.
If you want efficiency increases to result in actual lower energy use, you'll need government intervention.
This old economist's saw seems true over time, but in the short-term (the next critical 5 - 10 years) increased efficiency will likely be used to keep energy expenditures down, since the question isn't saving money because of efficiency/conservation, but rather losing less money because of rising energy/resource prices. So the consumer's goal is to lose less. This is an important psychological difference (which I might have explained in an unclear way). As energy & resource prices rise many activities don't make economic sense like they once did. Demand destruction occurs, corrects the market increase until a later day when it comes back... But demand destruction isn't happening in China because of the subsidies there, or in the Middle East for the same reasons.
"Supply and demand imbalances" aren't per se the reason for demand destruction is, as we see in the case of subsidies. It's price, especially price's cumulative effects over time, which destroy demand. Again the difference is important when you consider subsidies.
Robert,
To be fair, though things are not happening as fast as Kurzweil said and as you pointed out energy is his blind spot, we are now for the first time in history able to build infrastructure that is capable of powering our civilization from renewables.
That we haven't done so (yet) and that since the members of our civilization are not all rowing in the same direction we may not is a different question.
Also: OK so he does look 60 (though I'd have said more like 50) he looks like he's in great shape for his age. Looking at the office where I'm currently working, there are plenty of people in their late 40s in worse shape than Ray.
It's no more a different question than the "above-ground" factors are a different question from the geology. We won't do it because we are not capable as a species. It will, however, indeed happen - that "we" power civilization from renewables. Whatever civilization it is, though, it won't be "ours" and "we" will be a different fork of the ape tree. The other side of this singularity we will become a different species.
I'm concerned that even that expresses too much unfounded hope.
cfm in Gray, ME, parking cars at the End of the Universe.