218 comments on The Ultimate Fight?: The Singularity v. Resource Depletion and the Limits to Growth
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218 comments on The Ultimate Fight?: The Singularity v. Resource Depletion and the Limits to Growth
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A capitalist economy will use up whatever energy is cheaply accessible.
But, the essential point is that energy has become a smaller part of GDP than it was 30 years ago, and that means increased efficiency has indeed occurred.
Increased efficiency doesn't lead to less energy use, it leads to greater wealth for the same energy use. You know the old saying, waste not want not.
The market is not going to reduce energy use until it's forced to by supply and demand imbalances.
If you want efficiency increases to result in actual lower energy use, you'll need government intervention.
This old economist's saw seems true over time, but in the short-term (the next critical 5 - 10 years) increased efficiency will likely be used to keep energy expenditures down, since the question isn't saving money because of efficiency/conservation, but rather losing less money because of rising energy/resource prices. So the consumer's goal is to lose less. This is an important psychological difference (which I might have explained in an unclear way). As energy & resource prices rise many activities don't make economic sense like they once did. Demand destruction occurs, corrects the market increase until a later day when it comes back... But demand destruction isn't happening in China because of the subsidies there, or in the Middle East for the same reasons.
"Supply and demand imbalances" aren't per se the reason for demand destruction is, as we see in the case of subsidies. It's price, especially price's cumulative effects over time, which destroy demand. Again the difference is important when you consider subsidies.