Many renewable advocates make this argument for energy efficiency. Often, completely incorrectly, implying that it is sort of a 'better option' than nuclear power.

Energy efficiency is on the demand side. Creating government programs to get people to retrofit their insulation will make zilch - squat of a difference. There is one way to get people to make their homes and businesses more efficient and only one way; increase electricity prices.

The very fact that we don't currently see demand destruction in the electricity sector shows that we need more nuclear and renewable power. However, another way to view it is that the highly regulated energy market hasn't been able to increase prices in light of the increased cost of new generation, which obviously come from increasing commodities cost and the push for (more expensive) carbon neutral and more sustainable sources.

So allow the government to increase prices to what it would be for the expensive new nuclear builds and wind power. Demand will fall and you won't have to build but half as many as you planned anyway, and then China builds a new fleet of coal plants and more manufacturing is outsourced there. Problem solved. (?)

Theanphibian,

You mention expensive new nuclear builds and wind power.

Nuclear power plants are expensive partly because of ridiculously demanding safety requirements --- a response to anti-nuclear hysteria.

. In “The Nuclear Energy Option”, Bernard L. Cohen calculates that ever-escalating safety restrictions increase the cost of nuclear power plants by as much as four or five times…

More here:

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2006/10/a-nuclear-reactor...

and here:

http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/~blc/book/index.html

I'm not anti-nuke, but I am anti-poorly sited/built/maintained nukes. They are not something to mess around with, they absolutely, positively MUST be done right the first time. No exceptions, no excuses. If doing things right makes things more costly and takes longer than doing things wrong, IMHO that is a price worth paying. The ultimate cost of doing things wrong can be a hell of a price to pay.

I believe the problem is that a lot of the measures are mostly bureaucratic paper-filling, and often have a vast impact on cost, but little on safety.

mostly bureaucratic paper-filling

I won't comment directly on whether the paper work is useful or not because I don't have direct experience with it.

But it strikes me that complex technologies with extreme consequences should they fail probably require checks and rechecks then checks on the checks. Equipment must be within tolerances, backup systems must be equal to the job they will take over if the main systems fail, security must be tight, personnel training must be excellent, etc., etc.

I think people like to blame the "bureaucrats" or "the system" and fail to look at the root cause: nuclear energy is, as currently implemented, a complex, high-risk endeavor with catastrophic consequence if the system fails.

Very far from implementing a row of wind turbines, say.

-André

Even with the extra costs nuclear remains several times less expensive than off-shore wind.
The case is different in the US, where good resources on land make wind a good option.
There is no one 'right answer', and as long as appropriate safety concerns are answered but no useless padding included to pander to those who are in any case entirely ideologically opposed to nuclear energy and whom no conceivable safety measures would satisfy then a variety of resources should be employed.
In the West the safety record of the nuclear industry is second to none, and way better than the coal industry which has been the real beneficiary of opposition to nuclear power - that is where Germany in reality gets most of its energy, renewables so far have added greatly to bills without providing a very large contribution.

DaveMart, do you have a source for your assertion re: offshore wind vs. nuclear? I'm suspicious because Buffet walked away from building a nuclear plant despite $18B in government loan guarantees and extra perks because his people could not find a way to make it economically viable.

-André

The DOE in 2006 estimated the costs of wind power as around $1 million MW installed on land and $2 million for offshore:
http://www.renewables-advisory-board.org.uk/vBulletin/attachment.php?s=0...

Unfortunately since then costs of many inputs have risen drastically, with steel being notable.
Here are the latest estimates I have seen:
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSL1483748320080514?fee...

These still do not take account of the latest round of steel price increases AFAIK

From the Government paper it can be seen that the estimated capacity factor for off-shore wind in the UK is around 0.30, so you get a cost per MW of average hourly power generation of around $20million, or £10 million MW.

This does not include many of the costs involved in connecting up the turbines, or back-up capacity.

You can get a very generalised corroboration of these figures from the £100bn bandied around in the press as the estimated cost of the renewables commitment, which is overwhelmingly wind, although it does not include the full projected 33GW installed capacity for off-shore as much of that would not happen until after the time horizon, but does include a lot on cheaper on-shore wind.

Wind is a better resource than is indicated here as it is strongest in the winter when most needed by a factor of two, which helps a lot.
Unfortunately though you can get cold, windless snaps in the winter for several days, which means that additional back-up or transmission is needed, and also relies on natural gas for this, supplies of which are increasingly problematic.

For nuclear costs the highest estimate I have been able to find to date is from EON, who give a figure of up to £4.8 bn for an Areva reactor of 1.6GW:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/utilitie...
Nuclear reactors will cost twice estimate, says E.ON chief - Times Online

At a capacity figure of 90%, around current US practise that gives you average hourly output of just over 1.4GW (France gets lower capacity factors, but does not run its reactors for maximum output, as not all of it is always required) you come out with a maximum figure of under $7million MW average hourly production.

This would not include all connection figures, as the larger reactors would mean that that would need upgrading, but since they will be sited on existing sites that is by no means as challenging as connections for wind power..
No allowance is made either for cost reductions due to series build.

It is clear then that off-shore wind is around three times as expensive to build as nuclear.

Costings are very different for on-shore wind in the States, which has excellent wind resources, and things like speed of build and ease of finance help bridge any small gap in costings.
That gap is just too big in the case of off-shore wind in the UK for it to be bridged.

It would not be so bad if we were likely to retain our present earnings and ability to finance expensive projects.
As Euan has made clear with his articles, neither is likely to remain true, so in my view the projected build will simply not happen.

Does anyone have any info on how in(?)vulnerable nuke stations are to terrorist attacks of various sorts? One could imagine planes being flied into them like 9-11, or Jihadists getting critical jobs (due to need to avoid discrimination against Muslims), and thereby getting to do just about anything from inside.

We've only had one Chernobyl so far, and that was disastrous enough for Ukraine which was fortunately a rather spacious country. How about if six Chernobyls were simultaneously unleashed by anti-Western suicide terrorists? At an already power-critical moment of course.

This issue has been extensively discussed in the comments to this article on a grand solar plan for the US.
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan&page=1

It boils down to nuclear reactors being quite tough targets, and heavily protected.
The containment vessel at Three Mile Island for instance, did its job and prevented major releases - even with terrorist control, which would not last long as members of the special forces would be told to take the kid gloves off, it would be fairly difficult to breach the vessel.

Bowing up a natural gas tanker or poisoning a water supply is by comparison trivially easy, as would pathogen release.

Imagine the world's government's going onto War time footing to combat Peak Oil -- and going in the wrong direction!

The EU is already destroying rainforests and sucking up the cooking oil supplies from the world to power their transport; and the US is doing the same to grain crops.

Why should we imagine that governments will make intelligent choices? From the evidence, it would appear that they are far more likely to increase the damage, than to alleviate shortages.

Energy efficiency is on the demand side. Creating government programs to get people to retrofit their insulation will make zilch - squat of a difference. There is one way to get people to make their homes and businesses more efficient and only one way; increase electricity prices.

I disagree. A government mandated and subsidized program for upgrading insulation in houses makes perfect sense to me. It could be done along with a rise in energy prices. Simply allowing the market to raise prices will just mean that millions more people will 'freeze in the dark' because, with a collapsing economy, they will simply not be able to afford the upgrades.

Oh, yeah. This is called 'demand destruction' isn't it?

This is exactly the beef I have with those who proudly stick out their chests and proclaim energy efficiency. If you listen to industry, it's more often referred to as "demand side management" (ie maybe we don't have to build those plants after all).

These are depressing concepts. Even if we insulate homes better, then we accelerate rent and housing costs of low-income people who just suffered a subprime mortgage meltdown. It would be nice to have a beautiful democratic solution where the government pays for insulation in the exact amount needed to offset the corresponding rise in electricity prices. Now the middle class gets hit from both sides of the equation, but the likely reality is even worse. Such programs will get paid for by deficit spending, which I maintain (often against passionate rebuttals) is the most severe government redistribution of the wealth (but from the poor to the rich) in our society.

Not to mention that government involvement will in principle lead to less efficient allocation of resources. In fact, look no further than the government for an organization that already doesn't use energy efficiently. It's not a problem to leave lights on in all sorts of places at all hours of the night if done under a 'security' pretense. The fact is, the most effective form of demand destruction is done by calculated changes to lifestyle and ways of business - which is the exact thing government SUCKS at doing.

Hillary Clinton and her daughter on the campaign trail talked at length about reducing energy use of government. YES! This is what we need, the fact of the matter is that the government sector is one of the stiffest demand responses out there to energy prices and the rest of us pay dearly for that. Local governments can almost never afford to lessen air conditioning a degree or cut routes of a service, as simple complaints will set democracy in action to keep the status quo as the books fall further into the red, advancing the trends that got us into this situation. Look no further than Washington DC for an area with a nearly fixed energy usage weather it be at $4 or $10 per gallon.

Directly subsidizing insulation refitting means that those most guilty of a crime demand that everyone else fix it, while the guilty party breathes down our necks and makes the very act of efficientizing less efficient.

Discussion of the concrete meaning of 'wartime mobilization' is long overdue, and personally, I think that something of the sort is the only plausible alternative to real disaster. I've skimmed my way only a short way into the comments thus far, but let me just say that I am skeptical of your seeming belief that any kind of price mechanism would trigger the kinds of responses that are needed, whether in the form of subsidies for insulation which you think are a bad idea, or letting the market set the price. What wartime mobilization means, to my understanding, is deciding which activities are essential, and allocating resources to those activities. If one thinks of all the industries and individuals that depend on activities which are by any rational measure unsustainable (the great majority of us, I'm afraid), should we wish to see them all pursue these activities just as far as possible, up to the moment when they are attritioned - i.e. forced from the market? Let them all tread water as we gradually increase the weights around their ankles, and let the best 'unsustainable swimmers' stay in the cesspool the longest. And then what happens to those who are forced out? Do they all wake up the next day with Priuses in their driveways? In so far as the system does keep going, that would be good in comparison with an outright collapse, for those dwindling numbers who manage to stay attached to it. However, it seems to me that it would be far preferable - indeed much more efficient - to simply decide that activities X, Y and Z have no future. The only choice involves the path to their elimination. Rather than let them each just go on to their slow, painful demises, or worse, try to maintain them far past the stage where they are viable, why not stop them tomorrow? Give the people who lose those jobs a modest ration of basic goods (and the ability to provide those basic goods will depend on the ability to direct resources to activities that truly are essential) and tell them to stay home and propagate useful perennials and otherwise transform the places where they live into something much more sustainable - because they are patriotic, because they are excited about doing something truly important, and because they care about the survival of their grandkids, not to mention their own. Stopping the activities in which they were previously engaged, together with all the associated commuting to work, will save a lot of energy that is therefore left available for some essential purpose.

Similarly, activities P,Q, and R would be gradually phased out or reduced in scale, according to a deliberate schedule - because those activities provide goods which really are essential in the short-term, and which have no immediately available substitutes. Aspects of the currently unsustainable food production and distribution come to mind, as one example in this category.

Finally, activities A,B,C,D,E and F - the kind of skills, tools and infrastructure that will be needed if society is to be sustained, say, for another 500 years or so - will be ramped up with all deliberate speed. Much of the needed infrastructure and manufacturing will necessarily be of smaller scale than that connected with New Deal employment programs and the WWII mobilization. Government efforts to sustain demand will be counterproductive for similar reasons. Though absolute levels of energy available will be greater that what was available during WWII and the New Deal in the case of the U.S. - even assuming that supplies are quickly reduced to what can be obtained domestically - we will be rather limited in terms of what we can do on the large scales of the earlier programs, for two basic reasons: (1) at our current level of complexity, activities of type P,Q and R, will be consuming a great amount of the available energy, and (2) the mobilization activities of those earlier time periods were aimed at creating infrastructure for a civilization of increasing scale and complexity, whereas we will be aiming in the very opposite direction.

These things being said, there may indeed be a place for a few projects on a larger scale - whether these be functioning rail systems, or the F.H. King Canal Project in the southeastern U.S., modeled on the Grand Canal of China.

Finally, while there may be something to the economists' conception which links preferences to efficiency, that is now rather irrelevant to the predicament we face. One way of describing that predicament is that our preferences are those of Hydrocarbon Man. Regardless of our preferences, they have got to change.

Great points Steve about those ABC-XYZs. Can we get governments to apply them?

The price of power gives almost no signal to the rental sector to encourage better insulation.
Your proposals amount to allowing the poor to freeze.