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http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/US/story?id=5281043&page=1
Pentagon Official Warns of Israeli Attack on Iran
U.S. Offical Sees Two 'Red Lines' That Could Prompt Strike
BY JONATHAN KARL
WASHINGTON, June 30, 2008
Yeah, the US Special Forces are there in Iran just playing Tiddly Winks and the US has nothing to do with it.
Plausible deniability.
I prefer to call it treason.
Cheers
It's interesting that we are getting so many reports of resistance by key officers in the Pentagon to a US attack on Iran, and now we have a leak from the Pentagon warning of an attack on Iran by Israel. Makes one wonder if the Cheney led Neocon faction has given up on getting Bush to authorize a US attack on Iran, because of massive resistance from the Pentagon. I have frequently cited retired three star General Greg Newbold's essay in Time Magazine, from April, 2006, on why the invasion of Iraq was a mistake (he resigned in protest over the invasion). Following is a key excerpt (emphasis added):
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1181629,00.html
Unfortunately, an Israeli attack on Iran is probably even more inflammatory than a US attack on Iran. In any case, I wonder how much of this is related to getting McCain elected in November, because Obama is a mortal threat to the Neocon's plans to stay in Iraa for a 100 years plus. A few days ago, the former head of the Mossad basically said that if Obama is elected, that event in and of itself could trigger an Israeli attack. In other words, a vote for Obama is a vote for World War Three.
Friedman thinks this won't matter come November.
All the more reason to start another war that will help hide the underlying disaster.
Cheers
Just finished reading "Reinventing Collapse" (by D. Orlov).
To wit; "It is still quite possible that the USA will choose to engage in some futile new conflict, for instance with Iran. Such a move would be in keeping with the political dictum 'If you can't solve a problem, enlarge it,' It would also provide political cover for a variety of domestic measures......."(p. 103)
They are starting to hit the panic button pretty hard there in W.D.C. I guess it's the prospect of all those layoffs soon to come as more companies report bad results.
The only thing Friedman should be doing now is issuing
a handwritten note saying, "I'm sorry, sorry, sorry, for my cheerleading the US into the Invasion of Iraq."
He has no creds left.
That was said in relation to Kosovo; a decade ago.
The entire New York Times enterprise has reduced itself to toilet paper. It makes me physically ill to read anything from them -- and our local paper (often castigated for being "too liberal") runs NYT columns-- which I no longer read.
This is beyond politics -- the blinders are off a naked grab for empire. Congress is bent on continuing business as usual, defined as USA the sole world superpower.
History has not been kind to empires. I weep for what might have been.
Too bad, no time for self-pity.
Just to bash the NYT a little more.
In trying to read the tea leaves on Iran, it is useful to look for articles by Michael Gordon in the NYT. He has taken Judith Miller's place for Cheney on the issue of Iran.
Gordies doing a hecka of a job lately. He has been very active.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/washington/20iran.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/world/middleeast/05iran.html?_r=1&oref...
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/world/middleeast/10weapons.html
Cry me a river! ;-) The whole American experiment went off track long before you and I were born. We are a shadow of the potential we once had. Indeed, by the time we decided that we would give our "gift" of exceptionalism to the world, we were already generations removed from anything that made us unique.
We were off track before we even got started. The original contradictions (slavery and the treatment of the Indians) were quickly compounded by a war of agression against Mexico. Soon after extending the empire to the West coast, we fell to fighting among ourselves (the Civil War), which was followed all too soon by a war of agression against Spain, the annexation of Hawaii, and the gunboat capitalism documented by Smedley Butler.
The US faced a choice from the get-go: to extend the idealism of the original Republic to all people of all races, or to become an empire. For a while, the issue was in doubt, but the issue was settled long ago, by the dawn of the 20th century at the latest.
Agreed. Though I'd probably push the date to the dawn of the 19th century, but I'd have to push the proviso that we could have recaptured it perhaps as late as the lecture tours of Mr. Emerson.
Even from the start, there was a strong "banker" contingent that pushed for the global economic power, led by Alexander Hamilton. Is appointment as Secretary of the Treasury under Washington was probably the start of the fall.
Don't overlook Thomas Jefferson. Master of deceit. Claimed he was interested in family farms and local democracy -- in real life, a slave-holding believer in a global American Empire. (See Gary Wills on this point.)
The last chance we had to do more good than harm was in 1945. Eleanor Roosevelt's Human Rights Declaration began the discussion of trans-national standards of liberty. The Bretton Woods system we strongarmed the world into led to the best quarter century that poor people have known. The IMF and World Bank did some good things before the Reagan movement transformed them. Our occupations of Germany and Japan, and especially letting them retain control over their own capital, was a rebuke to the idea of liebensraum and eat or be eaten militarism - but now the US itself has destroyed international law in that realm. If only we had followed through with the 1946 Baruch Plan and given up our nuclear weapons. But the odds against successful UN control of nukes were fantastic.
Mostly, the evils of America's post-war vision were based on the belief that all-out, unimpeded growth would solve the grievances of poverty. Was it sincere? Instead the population explosion and attendant pollution and energy crises have left the US with no positive vision for the world besides neo-Victorian hypocrisy.
Actually, it was Carter that started the transformation of the IMF and World Bank, with Robert McNamera the tool:
Also see Profit Over People by Chomsky.
You history guys all need to read The Shock Doctrine, Naomi Klein.
Got it. It's in the queue. I've read lots of excerpts. Why do we as "history guys" need to read it?
Somehow, it doesn't surprise me much that you have it in queue...it has a nice account of the shameful history of the US overthrowing governments that didn't follow the economic party line. Perhaps "need" was a bit too emphatic; just a strong recommendation. It takes a lot for a book to get my jaded attention, these days.
Thank you George, for a true insight! Rest in peace.
True enough. I didn't say when things went astray. Interestingly enough, even though the truth has been hidden in plain sight since the beginning of the Republic, it is only recently that it has started to be easily visible, even to the true believers.
When I try to get past the problem of the policies of particular eras, I encounter the strange sensation that there was something wrong with the American definition of liberty from the very start, but it's hard to define the problem.
But one clue is the belief of early Southern elites that true liberty required involvement in politics, which required slaves to perform all drudgery. This was a ripoff of the story of Athens. But what if there's something to it? What if only the existence of slaves or energy slaves makes it possible for citizens to govern themselves - the Greek root of the word "autonomy"? Don't we think of autonomy as liberty?
I think you're close as Athens, Spatra and Rome were all modeled. Plato's Republic was and is very influencal. You also need to look at Hume, Locke, and Hobbes, and at those that influenced them (Trace those footnotes). Baylin's The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution and Wood's Radicalsim of the American Revolution are very revealing, as are their footnotes/sources.
As I mention elsewhere in this thread, one needs time to learn what must be learned. And learning from books or other sources of information pays very poorly. Thus the rationale for the hypothesis that only the well to do have the time to learn what must be learned in order to govern or vote for those who will govern properly. Amazingly enough, Protestantism is the root cause of this rationale's undoing, as its prime postulate is that everyone know what the Bible says so that s/he may be closer to God. That of course meant learning to read, the basis of learning and self government.
For Silicon Valley's technologies to flourish where? In government surveillance software? In smart bombs plowing into a wedding party? The technology that has flourished in the non-American world since the war started is cell phones, dominated by Europe and Asia, and weird little cars, which America doesn't make. The most successful American technologies: airliners, subsidized by Boeing's defense contracts and now headed down the tubes, and the realm of financial technology, the rigging of exotic derivatives. Linux has done well, but then that's a net loss for Microsoft and the US.
Our military-industrial complex doesn't want the world to be safe; otherwise there'd be no market for its products. But it's nice to see confirmation from the ass' mouth for what I've been saying (paraphrased from the old KGB slogan): America is the sword and shield of capitalism.
With all the resistance the administration pretty much needs an excuse to bomb Iran. They either need to get Iran to do something stupid, or they need Israel to start it so we can join up.
As an aside, did you ever think that your export land model might apply to Iraq, except in reverse? To wit, not only does the U.S. need Iraqi oil to keep our lifestyle, but they also would prefer that Iraqi internal consumption be minimized so that most of their production goes into exports. It would explain why nobody seems too concerned about the wrecked Iraqi economy. It would be a feature, not a bug.
That is an almost exact description of Naomi Kleine's
Shock Doctrine.
You only left out "the introduction of Friedman Capitalist Doctrine"
into the "vacuum".
When ever nation in question needs another "lift", the most developed oil
exporter in line gets the treatment.
See PNAC for details.
I was wondering how long until Hezbollah would be accused of training Shiite freedom fighters. This AP itemof Black Propaganda tries again to tie Iran to US casualties. It's being given Yahoo! mainpage space to play. It's just a matter of time before it gets similar treatment elsewhere.
Elsewhere, a poll shows a majority of American against "Free Trade." The Bush years and outsourcing have made their mark.
Hezbollah is the least corrupt, most competent ruler in the Middle East. A lot of ordinary Arabs recognize that, despite their anti-Shia prejudices. It should be training community organizers, construction teams, and yes, armies from Egypt to Iran itself, spending far less money in the effort than Mubarak in Egypt steals from US taxpayers. It is very telling that America considers its greatest enemies to be those who endeavor to act as a proper government for the poor, and its greatest allies to be those who act as jailers for the poor.
We have nothing to offer these people but sweatshops.
Yeah, perplexing, isn't it? Socialism for the Commonman was declared the enemy of the US Elite way before Lenin's Revolution. Corporate Socialism is The American System, however. What started with a turnpike and a canal led to Clay's and JQ Adam's program named above. Another work you'll find thought provoking is WA Williams's Empire as a Way of Life, along with the rest of his work about the US Empire.
Of course, if the U.S./Israel axis bombs Iran, Iran will bomb, rocket, and generally blast the hell out of Iraq's oil facilities. THEN what would Cheney do for more oil? Invade Mexico? Or, perhaps Chevez is right...
They are going to hit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, possibly Qatar and Oman. Why attack Iraq? The Shiites in Iraq will just turn a few valves and shut off oil exports. No need to bring out the artillary.
Yes, absolutely. I read that the US is going to form a sort of union with Mexico and Canada with a new currency called the Amero. This will be a sort of cure for the dollar doldrums. Also Canada's and Mexico's energy will go to propping up the US Govt for as long as possible. They in Washington will need that energy to keep the military running. They are not playing games, I think, they are pretty serious about grabbing what they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.
Neither Canada nor Mexico are particularly interested in forming a joint currency with the US. It would mean that we would have to take on part of the US' 9 trillion dollar deficit and all the reckless borrowing and spending policies that has brought the US to the brink of financial collapse as it is. The Canadian government has been running huge budget surpluses for 7 years (last year over $28 billion at both the federal and provincial level) and using that paying down our debt. We currently have the 2nd lowest national debt burden in the OECD. That is the reason our currency has gone from .62 cents to the US dollar to parity over the past 5 years.
Canadians are increasingly worried about the fact that 85% of our trade is with the US and more effort is being made to unhinge the Canadian economy from the US and diversify it so that your coughs don't become our colds.
Perhaps some kind of coup d'etat or military action could occur that would force both countries to stay in bed with the US but that would costly.
"In other words, a vote for Obama is a vote for World War Three."
Unfortunately it looks like so is a vote for McCain.
Just to clarify, I think that is the implied message that the ex-Mossad guy is delivering. I plan to vote for Obama, although I feel sorry for the "winner."
Two outlooks for a post-peak world:
Matt Savinar: Looking for a place to live upwind from probable fallout zones.
Alan Drake: Making a go of it in New Orleans, while pushing for Electrification Of Transportation.
I hope Alan is right, but I am afraid that Matt might be right.
You feel "sorry" for Obama if he wins?
I think he understands the program, and has willingly signed on. I doubt that this is a deliberate self-sacrifice.
But I could be wrong -- often I am.
If Matt Savinar is right, wouldn't you be better off living like there is no tomorrow?
Where you gonna go? Hawaii? Fiji? Well above the Arctic cirle? I personally think the nuclear fallout scenario is too terrible to think about.
Feynman became so depressed after creating the bomb that he didn't see the point in building bridges, roads - that it was just pointless - with the assumption that they would be used again, and again. I can't find the specific quote (in "Surely, You're Joking Mr. Feynman").
Even if you aren't irradiated the EMP will certainly send you back the the dark ages (note http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime - only 1.4 Megatons). It's really bizarre to see all the Savinar folk talking about EMP proofing laptops and things...
I sooner not live in this kind of fear ... it's more sheer terror.
Relevant quote:
Then again, Darwinian sounds kind of similar with regard to peak oil. Note the last line.
A nuclear winter sure looks like a good way to cure global warming,and overpopulation,and the energy crisis and on ad nauseum. 100% cure in a bomb - bravo.
Feynman might still be right.
If that slogan starts to take hold, I hope I won't be alone in reminding people that the rush to this war is already 3/4 over the waterfall. It was the last two presidential elections which were the ones voting to head us towards a WW3.
I think it's just what I said. You added a bit, but I don't think BuCheney are out of sync. I think they just want to be able to make excuses for what they have pre-arranged. By getting Israel to act first (or getting Iran to act defensively first - either will do), they have deniability... and a free hand to act while claiming they are defending (oil) security and abiding by their treaties.
As for the presidential politics... I just don't care anymore. I can't even remember what it was, but something today made me realize just how much Obama represents BAU. Don't count on him getting us out of anywhere.
Cheers
To the extent that there is a US ground move on Iran, I think that it will be to seize the key producing areas along the border with Iraq and presumably their offshore fields. That is the most that strained US ground force could do, if they can do that, and the producing areas are what the Neocons want anyway. The presumed justification would be to provide a buffer zone against Iranian attacks on Iraq and to deprive the Iranian regime of the cash flow they need to build nuclear weapons.
The question then would be if Bush/Cheney would face a revolt by key officers--sort of a reverse "Seven Days in May" scenario.
One can only dream that a patriot will eventually be found. These treasonous bastards have left us hanging high...
Cheers
Perhaps Fallon is rallying the "flag officers" right now!!! One can only hope.
...and just to reply to myself, if Fallon does read TOD I wanted to send this message to him.
SAVE US...SAVE US NOW!!! If you have an ounce of decency sir, please save us from the evil NEOCONS.
OK, nuff said....really...save us.
Uh, yeah... we're all gonna die. That's why God invented beer.
Well, I dimly recall that Saddam Hussein had a fantasy along these lines back in 1980 - that didn't work out too well for him. In the end, the bulk of the Iran-Iraq war was fought on Iraqi soil.
These days, between the regular military, the IRGC, the Basij and other security services, the Iranians can probably count on in excess of 150k "military" and "security" personnel in the region that you're talking about; and unlike Iraq in 1991/2003, these guys are very well-equipped, can bank on popular nationalist sentiment to back them up, will have the bulk of global opinion behind them ( ie there's no possibility of a UNSC resolution mandating the US to steal their oil fields ) and will definitely fight. They also have the advantage of already having proxy forces and personnel behind US lines in Iraq, which makes tactical surprise impossible, and renders everything triply awkward. I'm pretty sure that the US simply has no troops available to do this, let alone sustain an occupation for any length of time.
Even without the twin millstones of Iraq and Afghanistan hanging around the Pentagon's collective necks, the force requirements for this would far exceed the invasion of Iraq ( you're looking at Desert Storm type numbers, only without any allies this time around ), and the Iranians would still retain the ability to complicate things further elsewhere - especially along the entire Persian Gulf littoral and in the Straits of Hormuz.
All of that is why the US is likely thinking of using tactical nukes. Israeli starts the barrage with air raids and the US follows with a wave of tactical nukes on Iranian military targets. Then ground forces move in and take the oilfields adjacent to the Iraqi border. The devastation would be enormous, but the MSM would never report it.
Could they ask Poland for help? Don't forget about Poland....
*Thank you all for the essential work you do here.
If we try to do this one, a lot of people around the world will be thinking about Poland and September 1, 1939.
Absolutely that. No question the centerpiece of the plan. But I think also a buffer zone along the Straits of Hormuz.
Neither of these would be easy to hold, except maybe that island in the strait(can't think of name off top of head). Our forces are stretched very thin.
I doubt very seriously they are planning to occupy anything. They will be more than happy to bomb the shit out of the country and leave it at that. Hell, if they don't invade they can claim, when Russia makes moves towards joining in, that they never invaded, just bombed a bunch of nuclear facilities and some terrorists (Those Guards, whatever they're called...).
Cheers
If the U.S./Israel axis bombs Iran, Iran will react militarily, even if the reaction leads to tactical nukes. I think pride of race, history, and nation will win out; they will look at anything less as cowardice, and who can blame them? Other nations have decided to go down fighting; the aforementioned Poland comes to mind. WWIII won't start immediately, but the resulting resource wars will lead to it eventually. Personally, I think I'll just stay upwind.
Consulting my handy-dandy map of Persian Gulf targets...
Qeshm Island
Lesser Tunb Island
Kish Island
Sirri Island
Thanks. I was thinking Qeshm and Lesser Tunb. I think with the latter there's a dispute with Oman anyway, which will provide flimsy rationale for occupation.
Kish would seem pretty likely to be a target given that the recently opened Iranian Oil Bourse is situated there. Attacking Iran is at least partly about defending dollar hegemony, removing a competing petroleum exchange seems to follow that logic.
but something today made me realize just how much Obama represents BAU. Don't count on him getting us out of anywhere
FWIW, if you have a tinfoil hat( :-))
Barack O’Bilderberg: Picking the President
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20080609...
Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.....
Just got fooled again...
Obama to expand Bush's faith based programs
This and his stated energy policies have me thinking there is no one I can vote for....
Why the US is one helluva country, complete with an alternative slate down toward the end of the article to make you smile in times of awakening or distress.
Ah! That's the little nugget that had me thinking Obama is just more of the machine. Before I figured he was somewhat in the machine, but perhaps a little bit of a maverick. (I found it odd that the one touting hope was the one of th final two for the dems who was offering the LEAST change... and, no, I am not a fan of Hillary.) But this crap shows he's just as deep in it as anyone else. Clinton's health care plan is better, they are a wash on energy, and her Iraq plan is better.
Americans are dumber than yeast.
Cheers
The first two of the four indictable offenses at Nuremberg were:
1. Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of crime against peace
2. Planning, initiating and waging wars of aggression and other crimes against peace
Unlike our civilian "leaders", most of our military officers are probably actually aware of this fact.
Yes, and this man is an example of how to properly and morally respond in such a situation. And if morals aren't enough for some of you soldiers and "contractors" out there, just consider that you might be charged and thrown in jail or even executed somewhere down the line. If fear of consequences, rather than good morals, ends up preventing a war, I'll take it.
When I try to look through a neocon's eyes at the consequences of an attack on Iran, I believe that they might conclude that an American attack is much riskier than an Israeli attack.
The challenge here (as it is in so many ways for American authority) is to maintain the greater status quo. They want to derail growing Iranian power and influence, but maintain the status quo as it relates to the American military position in the Gulf and relationship to the Gulf states. An American attack is much riskier from this standpoint. A very real danger of an American attack is that that position will become untenable.
Why does a North American nation have such a dominant military presence in the region? Is the US a catalyst for stability and development in the region or the cause of conflict? These are the questions the Iranians want the other Gulf states to deal with. The Iranian goal is to expel the US from the region, no less.
An israeli attack is less risky to the American position. It doesn't change the status quo as obviously. Israel is already in existental conflict with much of the region. An Israeli attack would no doubt be followed by a volley of missiles from Iran, but it is not so clear that it would broaden in the way that would threaten the US. How would Iran justify closing the straight of Hormuz if the were attacked by Israel and not the US? I don't think they could effectively link the attack to the greater US military presense.
For this reason I believe the hawkish contingent in the administration is turning towards support for an Israeli attack. Well, actually that's no the only reason. I also think there is a lot of opposition to an attack from within the administration (Rice, Gates) and they don't have much choice but to contract it out to the Israelis.
Like the Israeli attack on Lebanon, any attack on Iran must have US okay. There may not be a formal mutual defense treaty between the US and Israel, but there is a de facto one that is well established, which was justification for the attack on the USS Cole and other US assets, and is a very important fact most of the propagandized people in the West fail to appreciate. Consider, most everything the Israelis would use is US made, and they would have to fly over occupied Iraqi airspace, thus any Israeli attack has Made in America stamped all over it.
Since Iran is now a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, all it need do is have its GCC Ambasador submit a tersly worded note saying that, while sorry to do so, GCC country's oil facilities would be targeted in retaliation for any attack on Iran. This may incense the leaders of the GCC countries, but they would have to admit to Iran's POV. IMO, that would be close to the ultimate "oil card" play. Clearly, it's in any GCC country's interests to not have any attack on Iran, so perhaps a threatened Embargo of the West to get the West to stop its fuelisn insanity?
I have always wondered about the Shia workforce at Ras Tunara, the GOSPs at Ghawar, et al, the electrical power plants, etc.
I do not wonder about the senior leadership of the Shia Iraqi Army (there is a separate Kurdish Iraqi Army). Many of them fought with the Iranian Army (as auxiliaries, Badr Brigade) in the Iran-Iraq War.
Iranian Intelligence is reported to be VERY good, almost the equal of Mossad.
The US Army supply lines to Kuwait are unlikely to survive 6 hours after an Israeli attack on Iran. Supply convoys may be politely turned back at checkpoints or ...
The US Army does not have the ability to take & hold those supply lines.
Alan
Thanks for the sane reply Alan. I often wonder if any of our "Imminent War Prognosticators" served in the military, specificly the Army, or have an historical understanding of how "Interests" move geopolitics. I have been there and study that. Someone referred to Iraq as the US "Stalingrad in the Sand," which well describes the tactical and strategic problem facing the US military.
The overall equation goes like this: The US military can inflict damage upon Iran, but the retaliation for such an attack by Iran will wreck for all time the current Golden Goose Globalized Economic Paradigm. Iranian behavior shows that they know this equation. Other players also show they know too. I would submit that the short-selling futures traders know this too, which is why they continue to bet short. Most important as I point out in the thread below, Little Oil would gain zero but rather lose it all along with everyone else if Iran is attacked. Personally, I would view an attack on Iran as an attack on my person and respond in an appropriate manner, and I know many folks who feel the same.
The US Empire has reached its zenith; all it can do now is crumble slowly or collapse spectacularly.
'an attack by Iran will wreck for all time the current Golden Goose Globalized Economic Paradigm.'
i hate to see the markets fail ,as they are now doing. imo bau is what has held war back;bau failing increases the probability exponentially.
Karlof1:
You speak as if America tells Israel what to do
LOL
Israel has never listened to or done anything the
USA asked or told it to do.
America has ALWAYS done everything that Israel
wanted done.
Read Noam Chomsky or Norman Finklestein or Steven
Walt or John Mershiemer or Jimmy Carter or...well
I dont want to load you up with home work the 4th of
July is comming and all.
Every USA intell agengy says Iran ISNT building a bomb
YET ISRAEL SAYS IRAN IS MONTHS AWAY...hahahahahah
The chutzpah is laughable if the nuclear fallout
isnt.
shalom!
Oh please dear Nephilim, where do I "speak as if America tells Israel what to do?" And careful, you are guilty of using the fallacy of absolutes here: "America has ALWAYS done everything that Israel wanted done."
Ah, I see it. Yes, they would need just that, just as they needed it before their 2006 Lebanon Campaign. If you were watching closely, you would have seen how it was all orchestrated with BushCo as bandleader.
It looks to me like the neocons will have Israel launch the attack. The US will then intercede to prevent Iran from retaliating in any meaningful way, like blocking the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran does anyway, the US could interpret that as an attack on the US, and our hands would be free to attack Iran.
This would even make sense if Israel attacked Iran without US approval or against US wishes. However, everyone (including Iran) will know that the US will have granted authorization and provided material support, if not actually egged Israel on. But, as far as evil schemes go, it might well provide the US with a "hands clean" way of attacking Iran.
On the other hand, the Iranians are pretty savvy. So I suspect direct Iranian retaliation (if there is any) will be directed only against Israel. Iran will retaliate through its proxies (Shiites in KSA and Iraq, Hezbullah and Hamas nearer Israel). That way Iran retains some form of plausible deniability, and the US would lose its "clean hands" opportunity to attack. That doesn't mean the US won't attack of course.
In short, a war seems pretty much inevitable. And escalation of that war seems inevitable as well.
It is not inconceivable that the Russians will not intercede, due to their oil production, but that says nothing about the Chinese, who of course have stepped in to help the Iranians financially, in part due to our blockage of investment resources from the West for the Iranians. Of course, the Chinese nukes will kill us just as dead as the Russian nukes, so I don't think that is any consolation.
Photo without comment:
Interesting how the Admiral is saluting with his left arm. Too bad the last 7 years aren't the joke this photo intimates.
I doubt that's a coincidence. Saluting left-handed is the military equivalent of flipping someone the bird.
Yep, I know that. I was sort-of musing in print about just how photo-shopped the pic is.
http://www.tpub.com/content/advancement/12018/css/12018_303.htm
Or maybe Putin is secretly hoping it will go down. Nothing like having your Golden Goose exports immediately triple in price, at the same time as your geopolitical competitors are screwed. Their best move is to enjoy the spoils at a distance.
If he trusts those missiles he sold Iran, he may believe the Israeli-American attack will fail. That would shake the balance of power and the balance of foreign arms sales in his favor. A loss of US warships in the Gulf to Russian/Chinese missiles might have even bigger effects.
US Navy losses to Iranian missiles is a given, unless all US Navy assets are pulled from the Persian Gulf. If not, I have given some thought as to what might happen if the past can be used as a guide: Nothing. Evidence: Vietnam was supplied with Russian and Chinese weapons and very little protesst was made. True, now a different group of Crazies are on the button, but I believe MAD works, so I can sleep at night.
"In short, a war seems pretty much inevitable. And escalation of that war seems inevitable as well."
There is a thin thread of hope to hold onto. Given that the military understands how easily their troops can be encircled in Iran but also in Kuwait and Iraq, the military planners understand that an attack on Iran could lead to nuclear weapons being used. This is something that the military abhors.
As these articles show, the military is one of the main reasons that nuclear weapons have not been used in the past.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/17/060417fa_fact
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2601286?&Search=yes&term=taboo&term=nuclear&...
Also, the military brass unlike the neocons have sons and daughters in Iraq. Most of the military brass are patriotic and don't want to be responsible for the possible deaths of hundreds of troops that are under their command. Bombing Iran also means a draft and a return of the Vietnam style draftee Army.
That is why Fallon, Pace, the NIE folks and other military people have stopped an attack of Iran in the past and hopefully the military will stop this last campaign for war too.
Will they be able to stop Israel? My fear is having Israel attack is the end run around US opposition, inside the millitary and outsdie.
I have no idea. This sucks watching these assholes play out their grand apocalyptic chess game as the American public watches American Idol and shops at Wallmart.
Lighten up dood. That's why God gave us beer and fireworks.
And misssing fingers after the combination of the two!
Here's something might affect the military's effectiveness:
Friggin' idiots... This is what happens when a bunch of arrogant, draft dodging hawks get in control... their egos can't accept they don't know WTF they're doing...
And, surprise, surprise, it's another violation of the law and abrogation of their duties. History will not judge kindly our failure to throw out, try and punish these whack jobs.
Cheers
And the MSM says Obama is weak on National Security. What kind of mind-altering drugs is the governing class of America on?
Sure would like to get my prescriptions filled. Sure beats trying to handle reality.
I agree that history will judge Americans harshly.
Americans should never have allowed AIPAC (American
Israel Political Affairs Committee) To take over
domestic and geo political power of America.
Americans shouldnt have allowed GWB to be coronated
for a second term.
Americans shouldnt have sat passively while Bush
fininshed his second term.
Excuses like...."We didnt want to ruin the cherry
blossoms on the cherry trees with neocon fruit
swinging from the branches the spring of 2008"
Wont suffice.
I also cant believe our military hasnt performed a coup with all the damage thats been done.
Thats why I dont hold much hope for rectifying peak
oil in America.
The strangle hold of American finacial systems, media
political strong holds is to all encompassing by these
many chosen few, too allow for mankinds natural
gift of invention and resourcefulness.
These leaches arent smart enough to realise that a
symbiotic relationship is their only hope.
That mans symbiotic relationship with the earth is
mankinds only chance.
These bloodsucking shysters are gonna be the obstacle
too humankinds pulling off that Hail Mary pass the
world needs right about now.
Jeff Vail's comment on the story, with more stuff to follow:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4184#comment-372013
Has anyone here got enough military knowledge to place this in some kind of context?
Clearly bases in Iraq and Afghanistan outflank Iran, and if some kind of oil grab is planned then they might hope to also take some of the ex-USSR resources in proximity.
Is the hope, if this is the intention, to shut out China because they would not have enough oil to fight a war?
It seems clear that some of the 'forces behind the throne' are peak oil aware, and as TSHTF may be planning some sort of coralling of resources.
Leaving morality aside, as it is plain that that is already the case, what might be the strategy and the game plan?
Hi Dave--Remember Sir Halford MacKinder? He forumlated the term/concept of Geopolitics in a paper, "The Geographical Pivot of History," and published a book after WW1, Democratic Ideals and Reality, which can be read online in PDF. These two works should be required Freshman reading for anyone majoring in International Relations, or related subjects like History. They are the places to start understanding.
Regarding your thesis, such a plan, such as it is, could be aimed at either Russia or China, and is built on old Cold War ideas and methods. Although his embacing abiotic oil and speculators as the main reason behind oil price rise has discredited him somewhat, Engdahl's geopolitical analysis, IMO, is quite good and should be read here and here.
The problem facing US policy makers is that while some of the steps in the game were quite easy--extending NATO to Russia's doorstep along with its unworkable missile defense shield, debilitating the "Slav Beachead" Serbia and establishing a huge base in Kosovo, invading Afghanistan [for which plans were well advanced during the Clinton admin well before 911] and escalating the war being waged against Iraq through direct invasion--other steps were rebuffed--especially the attempt to establish bases in the FSU Central Asian countries. Further, the US Army is too small to do anymore than it has; even the NATO forces in Afghanistan are too small and their nationals are clamoring for their withdrawl. Add into the mix the increasingly visible fact that the rising oil price is destabilizing the global economy, even rich EU countries, and is a result of US Imperial actions, and the whole of the NATO alliance is threatened, and revolt against the US Empire is gaining momentum globally, and very importantly in South America. Last, the asymmetric tools its foes have at their disposal as Engdahl points out are formidible given the US Empire's very visible weaknesses. IMO, the biggest failure of US planners was not instituting the Draft after 911 because the main problem is the lack of soldiers to hold territory and launch further invasions requiring the capture and securing of more territory. Thus, the seemingly good flanking positions in Iraq and Afghanistan amount to zero militarily.
It would seem to me that no-one would be very interested in capturing Osama Bin Laden, as it would reduce the perceived threat and stretch the utterly threadbare justifications for the various invasions and occupations even more.
I doubt that the worry for the Zionists and associated neo-con loonies and evangelicals about a Democrat victory is well-founded, as Obama was considerably more convincing in his pledge of unswerving and undying loyalty to Israel than he ever has been about his support for America - this must be the first time a pledge of allegiance has been required from a prospective head of state to a foreign power.
How foreign it is is of course subject to debate, since it's adherents are installed at every level of political and economic power in America, and they certainly conspire quite openly together, however frowned upon the term may be.
That a psychopath like Albright comfortably resided in the Clinton administration after describing the death of 500,000 Iraqi children as a price worth paying should perhaps show how little grounds for concern they should have.
However, if it is desired to bring matters to a head you have outlined very well the needed steps.
A crisis is needed, to make America submit to the draft and mobilise fully.
Presumably the burning of the Reichstag is being studied extensively.
A 'provocation' would be very handy.
The military plans don't necessarily need to be that coherent or sensible - this bunch of jokers tend to commit, then leave it to the military brass to sort it out.
German war plans in 1914 were also deeply flawed.
Those who are expecting the rapture shortly are comparable to the Seigfried obsession in the Reich, and prepared to court disaster.
This seems the most dangerous time since the Cuban missile crisis.
I'm going to try to respond to some of this type of comment again.
I would like people to just take a second and think of the double-standard that we impose on Israel vs. the rest of the world. We have defended, not just by words but actually stationing troops in Germany and South Korea for the last several decades. Why didn't I hear calls for us to abandon Germany and Europe to the Soviet Union in the 80's? We made it very clear that an attack by the Soviets on our allies would not be tolerated. How is this any different from defending Israel from it's neighbors?
We still have troops defending South Korea. Should we make it clear to North Korea that we would do nothing if they were attacked? How about defending Japan from China? We have pretty much guaranteed Japan that would defend it, and the Chinese would not risk an attack.
No, it seems to people on this board that Israel doesn't merit the same level of security that we provide to European and Asian countries. As for having pro-Israel people in Government, we do. There are also a lot of pro-UK people in goverment, but that doesn't seem to get people pissed. Do you think a president could get elected who said that an attack on the UK would be tolerated and that we had no loyalty towards them?
True enough. But I think what "we" are defending in Europe, Japan, etc. are business arrangements, not democracy. And I don't think that Germany has independent control of a tactical nuclear force.
Maybe not now, but I could see it coming. (Remember Rummy dissing "old Europe"?)
It all comes down to common interests. We've been trying to get Japan to take responsibility for their own defense, and I could see it going that way with other countries, too.
Our interests and Israel's are increasingly diverging, and I think this is going to be a problem in the future.
In the long run, Israel is unsustainable. Even without peak oil, they cannot go on as they are, with a minority ruling over an ever larger and more oppressed majority. With peak oil...forget it. I think this is a big reason so many here want to wash their hands of the whole thing. It's a lost cause. The same cannot be said for Korea, or Germany, or Japan, or the UK.
Oh please.
There is indeed a double standard - in the US it's uncritically in favor of Israel.
Your analogies to Germany and Korea are ridiculous and irrelevant.
Here's how it's different - Israel is occupying land that doesn't belong to them, building out settlements in de facto annexation, turning Gaza into a pressure cooker, has 200 nukes and the most powerful military in the area, etc. etc.
Leanan, can you pull the plug on this pro/anti Israel/Jew/Zionist/Armageddonist crap? It is becoming quite absurd.
If you don't see a double standard in Israel's treatment of Palestinians, I don't know what would do the trick for you.
The present outcry about terrorism is done without a sense of irony, as many of the founders and heroes of Israel were members of terrorist organisations.
Many religious Jews rejected the notion of Zionism, as they felt that human intervention would not be appropriate in awaiting God's will.
You can't nick a country, and rule it in a way which is democratic only because it kicked half the inhabitants out, and claim that it is all OK really as you have an old book that says it is.
The State of Israel is as much a product of Western, formerly British and lately American, power politics as the Crusader fortresses were.
Personally, although my relations fought their way across Europe, and in so doing allowed many Jewish people to survive, I was less than thrilled when those same people resorted to bombing British troops, or content with the fact that British troop movements were often known to the people living there before they had received their orders.
Madelaine Albrights cheery dismissal of around 500,000 deaths of Iraqi children as a price worth paying, and the fact that she herself had been taken in as a child with her family to save her form Nazi Germany, but felt no obligation to show humanity herself perhaps illustrates the degree of special pleading and double standards prevalent in the notion of the Zionist state.
She still remained a member of the Clinton administration after revealing her pathological tendencies.
There is a fatal disconnect between the demand for equal treatment in a host country, to the extent of forming a greater portion of the ruling class than any other ethnic group, and giving primary loyalty to a foreign power.
I would emphasise that this by no means applies to all Jewish people.
The Israelis though can fight their own battles, and preferably be joined by all the other Zionists in so doing.
They should not have a single dollar to help them do so, nor a single soldier from elsewhere.
I have no wish to take 'my share of the bombs' on Israel's behalf, nor any interest in supporting it.
The tragedy of the Jewish people is the Zionist state, which became that which it arose in opposition to, a racialist imperialist imposition.
These things do not go on forever.
The interests of the US are being subverted in the service of a foreign power.
EDIT: Re-reading, I should emphasise tht I am referring to Zionists, not Jewish people, and even Zionists I have some sympathy for, as the pressures which gave rise to it were extreme.
The sympathy however does not extend to having any more of my kin blown up on their behalf, or to OK'ing undue influence or activity contrary to the interests of my own country.
I'm not going to keep arguing this, but I don't approve of Israel's treatment of the Palestinians, especially in Gaza. I think it is not right to cut off fuel and aid to Gaza, and I think we should heavily pressure the Israeli government to stop it's policies there.
My point is just that there is a double standard. Maybe the Israeli's shouldn't be where they are, but they are. What the last part of the twentieth century taught us is that it is not OK for innocent populations to pay the price for what their leaders or ancestors did. White people shouldn't be in Argentina, but that doesn't mean we should allow them to be attacked. We can not go back and put everyone where they "belong", we have to defend people's rights to safety and security where they are. We should not allow black Sudanese to be killed, or Sunni Iraqi's to be killed, or any kind of Israeli, Arab or Jew.
You make a very good case for armed intervention on behalf of the Palestinians.
As for the rest of it, if Israel wants to fight its neighbours that's fine by me, providing they do the fighting and don't expect help.
They could pay for it too, instead of helping the neo-cons bankrupt America.
The sympathy ploy is worn out, and there has been quite enough special pleading.
I don't know about armed intervention, but I think we should offer humanitarian aid to the Gazans, as with anywhere, most of those whom are suffering are innocent, and are paying the price for the few who are causing trouble. It would also be nice if some of the oil-rich countries in the region (UAE and Kuwait) would help out with this.
My personal opinion is that most of the anger against Israel amongst the Arabs and Iranians is due to their leaders needing a scapegoat. It is a lot easier for the Saudi or Iranian leadership to tell their people that the US and Israel are to blame for their problems, so they don't look to their own crappy leadership for answers. Same thing we are doing in this country, blaming "speculators", "terrorists" and "evironmentalists" for our current economic and energy problems, so we don't focus on our own incompetent "rulers".
You seem to be able to pass by the fact that we are apparently once more teetering on the brink of war, at least partly due to the unsavoury and undemocratic garrison-state of Israel, which has the gall to quiz presidential aspirants to vet them for their support for its illegal occupations.
You ignore the massive influence that Zionist sympathisers have had in committing America to a disastrous course, and the huge, probably fatal costs of that.
You are also a fellow traveller rather than someone who is committed to Israel, and it is not your body on the line.
I have news for you, this is not some passing fancy of an Arab regime, this is their line in the sand, and Israel will not stand.
So if you wish to support Israel, do it from within, and don't try appealing to non-existent sympathy for that regime.
Yes, people will suffer, but at the moment the Israelis are well aware that they are squatting on someone else's land, and spending someone else's money to sustain that injustice, so what is coming to them is their affair.
If you support Israel, go and man up and commit to them.
I reserve my sympathy for the British soldiers who died at Zionist hands in their terror attacks, and for the many since who have been dragged in to conflict due to their racialist state.
"at least partly due..." - agreed, but it takes two to tango. Israeli settlements in the West Bank need not be cause for for war with Iran, but that fault lies as much with the Iranian anti-Israel lobby as with the US pro-Israel lobby.
"If you support Israel, go and man up and commit to them." - No thanks, I'm happy in Minnesota.
"I reserve my sympathy for the British soldiers who died at Zionist hands in their terror attacks" - I reserve my sympathy to people dying in attacks everywhere, from all perpetrators.
You neatly manage to avoid real responsibility, both corporate and personally.
We are living in the real world here, not Mary Poppins land, and support for Israel, which is what you are asking for, means oppression for the Palestinians, and the ones who have been rendered stateless not reclaiming from the burglers you are supporting.
You then compound the evasion of responsibility, by pleading that is not your fault if some of them are nasty, as you want sweetness and light for everyone.
What's more, you wish to do so from a position of safety, hiding behind the skirts of the America you are effectively helping to bankrupt.
I much prefer the real, loony racist Israeli settler, thanks - at least they stand for what they believe.
Presumably if you are ever held to account by your fellow Americans for your subversion, it will be all due to racist mistreatment, and you will still, in your eyes, be pure as the driven snow.
No wonder you are happy in Minnesota - you are happy anywhere you can evade real commitment or taking responsibility.
That may not work forever.
So I am living in Mary Poppins land, and you are living in the real world?
Are you? Or are you sitting at a computer in the UK, typing on a blog, just as I am? Have you gone to Gaza, to take up arms for the Palestinian cause?
Methinks the pot is calling the kettle black.
I think the phrase 'rootless cosmopolitan' must have been invented with you in mind.
Where I am is in my own country, the UK, which is being swept to disaster partly in the service of a foreign country to which we have no obligations whatsoever.
If you wish to continue to defend the indefensible in the fascist state that you apparently give primary loyalty to, perhaps you could likewise actually go there, instead of remaining in comfort whilst attempting to subvert the interests and pick the pockets of your fellow citizens in your place of domicile.
I am living in the country to which I give my loyalty, against the interests of any other state.
Where do you live?
Except that history proves the USA IS responsible for Iran's problems.
Can't agree. Maybe the US threw a log or two on the fire, but it goes much deeper than that.
If you're going to argue with "history," you must come up with some sort of valid argument.
Do you have no clue whose money has allowed Israel to build their aresnal? Whose technology? Whose uncritical, unbending support even in the face of masive war crimes?
WHAT double standard?
Cheers
Google "Jabotinsky". He's the Zionist pioneer who stated that the goal of Jewish colonists was to do to the native Arabs what the United States of America did to the Indians.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Yes...let's get rid of the natives that have learned to adapt to their local environment and live sustainable, happy lives. Why that is anti-growth and anti-West and anti-Capitalism and is therefore savage and evil!! They are wasting their resources for the "greater good".
We do not have a formal treaty of alliance with Israel.
And in my opinion, our treaty of alliance with the UK, Germany and the rest of Europe terminated the day the USSR fell. NATO could only be justified by the Soviet threat to dominate the world by conquering a continent that held much of its wealth and technological power. There is no justification for it now. There is no justification for US troops in Germany and Japan and for crying out loud one hundred and twenty other countries.
Israel has 150 to 200 nukes to deter a strategic attack. Case closed. Let's knock 400 billion off our $750 billion in annual military spending and put it to work saving our society from collapse.
Consumer - I agree with your general drift.At bottom I think that a large part of the problem people have with Israel is that anti-semitism is still alive and thriving,especially in Europe although it occurs here in Australia as well,sometimes in the most unlikely places.Note - I am not Jewish.
That said,Israel has brought a lot of problems on their own heads by being stubborn about the West Bank settlements.The extreme religious right is a threat in Judaism as well as Christianity and Islam.
From what I have read in TOD and elsewhere I doubt if Israel will carry out a first strike on Iran.I know that they did this in Iraq but the present situation is totally different.
There is a hell of a lot of posturing(read bluff)going on in Iran,Israel and the US.Let us just hope none of the protagonists begins to believe their own propaganda.
Oh bullshit. It is not antisemitism.
Arabs, being Semites, could easily be pictured as victims of Jewish Anti-Semitism, as I have often and successfully argued.
That's odd then. I'm Jewish ( and so's my wife ) but I'm opposed to the state of Israel's establishment and subsequent treatment of its Palestinian 'subjects'.
Does that mean I'm anti-semitic ? Or a self-hater ? Or maybe I'm just confused ?
Yes, I said the same in some writing I did last week. I know I've posted this link here once before, Operation Northwoods Plan, but the big difference between the Northwoods's Plan and 911 is the Draft was already in place and deemed "normal" by the Cold War propagandized society of the times, and Neocon dogma insists that one big reason for losing Vietnam was the Draft "democratized" the military too much. Thus, there was no call for a Draft after 911.
This item by Jim Lobe wasn't posted here until now AFAIK and contins some intersting poll results and assessments from a center-right source, The Nixon Center, which agrees with my assessment, ""I think one of the things that makes [an attack] a lot less likely is what it will actually do to the oil price," said the Nixon Center's Saunders." The poll numbers clearly indicate the American people are pissed-off, and can easily see the cause and effect relationship between BushCo and Israeli Wartalk and the rises in oil and gasoline price. Thus the new Black Propaganda piece I posted upthread that indicates the desperation of the bloody warhawks, which includes the Democrat Party leaders as the Iran targeted covert operations financing proves. As I have said before, US Imperial policy is bipartisan; far too much history proves it so.
Some general once said: All war plans immediately become worthless as soon as the first shot's fired, referring to unanticipated events and unplanned consequences. Fischer's War Aims I've cited before shows the Kaiser wanted war with Russia to rid Europe of the Slav, but the only War Plan called for attacking France first, although the Kaiser had no desire to make war with France, or the UK for that matter, as he viewed both France and UK as fellow Teutons. So yes, the Kaiser like Hitler wanted lebbenschram at the expense of the Slavs. His last gasp attempt at victory was to send that day's eqivalent of Bin-Laden, Lenin, to Russia. His gambit won, but instead of moving his armies to the West, he tried to fulfill his initial ambition in Russia, and lost the war because of the Americans, as Hindinberg admitted when interviewed by Geore Seldes in 1918 detailed in Chapter 2, which is an amazing story.
So we can see the Neocons have much historical precedent, and IMO the world is fortunate they are no better tacticians than the Kaiser and believe in their own Mythos as much as Hitler. But it is very unfortunate that Western leaders haven't awoken to the peril they are placing themselves and their countyfolk in by allying themselves with the US Empire's exploits, particularly since the 2003 escalation of the Iraqi Holocaust. That there have been no public attempts by Western leaders demanding BushCo back down from their wartalk is alarming, and I wonder why that is, or perhaps I have missed some published in non-English sources.
What he said. I wish I could click the green arrow thingie about 4 or 5 times.
It's all very interesting, eh?
I have a feeling one of the main reasons for the Afghanistan adventure was to establish a blocking force more than anything. Directly on the land route from China into the Mideast. Sure, grossly outnumbered by Chinese land forces, but any loss of U.S. service forces there due to Chinese action would be 'justification' to unleash tactical nukes.
I have to keep telling myself that these people in power have access to data that I don't. They also have acres of super computers gaming this situation full time. I doubt that there are options that they have not gamed to death...
Which of course makes one wonder- what are the BAD choices? (sigh)
Do I fit into their plans for the future? Time will tell.
This has been niggling at my brain for weeks... maybe evena couple months: is a limited collapse possible? Is the ill will the current administration has sown (and our silence in the face of it) of such great extent the international community might choose to, and be able to, isolate and cut off the US? This might be termed The Gangrene Solution.
I've not got a handle on the idea. It has not grown in my head past the concept stage stated above. But the feeling that it might be one of the possible futures we face has slowly, uneasily grown in my thoughts.
Cheers
Well, you live in one of our occupied countries where a multitude of protests, different, but with a common denominator, have been happening almost constantly for several months; a country that had one of its citizens commit suicide at Cancun in protest of US-backed WTO trade-policies. Who do you think the South Koreans hate more: US troops or their ertswhile cousins, the North Koreans? Have you read the recent revelations of mass killings by the South government under US auspicies--even promoted by the US--during 1950, when it looked like the South and US might lose?
"Is a limited collapse possible?" Yes. I argue for the necessity of a self-imposed rollback/collapse of the Empire's overseas assets to save the Metropole, and a wholesale redesign of the Metropole's governmental structure. To your second question, a Containment policy imposed against the US Empire to force its rollback is possible, and from many POVs desirable, but at the current time would take some heroic action--EU rejection of NATO, for example. If US/Israel attack Iran, such action becomes quite probable.
The future is going to be ugly no matter what. It's the degree of ugliness that's yet to be defermined and is something we have some amount of control over.
Your first paragraph is a bit of a non-sequitur. My question wasn't about public sentiment about the US. To address Korean public sentiment in this simplistic manner indicates a very simplistic, black-and-white take on Korean-US relations. It's not worth going into, but the points raised in by you aren't very germane. Not that public sentiment wouldn't play a role in the scenario I suggested...
I've said, I've not got my head around this issue, but whether it's possible might better be asked in terms of what is probable. Your response though, has finally caused a bit of a jiggling in my brain resulting in the following thought: It would take a great deal, as you say, to get the world to act. It would, in effect, require the vast majority of nations - and virtually all the powerful ones - to act in concert and to be willing to risk a great deal of harm to themselves either economically or militarily.
Given the yet huge resource base of the US and its military might, I don't see anything less than a global backlash being able to accomplish isolating the US. Also, it seems relatively obvious that as soon as a more benign regime was in power they'd invite the US back into the fold.
Then again, the BuCheney regime is driving the world to the very brink of disaster (past it in already some respects.) How long can the world allow this to go on?
Cheers
I very much suspect that as soon as the US dares to unleash a tactical nuke, there would be a flurry of countries breaking diplomatic relations and treaties in protest, and lots more countries recalling their ambassadors. Most US embassies around the world would be mobbed and burned, and any US national the angry locals could get their hands on would be severely beaten or killed. McDonalds, Starbucks - any business establishment with an obvious US tie would be wrecked. Many or even maybe most of those 120 countries hosting US bases would demand that we pack up and get out immediately. Some countries would freeze US assets, and there would be a great dumping of US dollars on the global currency markets. Numerous countries would impose a trade embargo on the US, unilaterally or in concert.
I wouldn't recommend overseas travel for the next six months at least.
Well, the "world" has "allowed" US aggresion to "go on" since the end of WW2 and the contrivance of the Cold War. The USSR's collapse and ending of the Cold War unmasked US intentions as it never changed its prior behavior pattern. Both Bush I and Clinton gropped for enemies to continue the Cold War's campaign of fear, with Bush II handed 911 on a silver platter--just what the Empire ordered, which is not to say that the Empire did the act itself, although it has planned that intent in the past (see the Operation Northwoods Plans linked elsewhere on this thread).
If you understand how "soft" Empire works through controlled Compradore governments, you can see how that arrangement might unravel--see South America for current examples. Arguably, much of the rise in oil price can be attributed to US Empire war and war threats, which has seriously destabilized many of its Compradore allied governments, whose publics are not fooled at one of the primary reasons for their immiseration (even the US public is understanding this finally). Further, overt US behavior in its War of Terror has revealed what it did secretly during the Cold War, and displays itself as no better than any totalitarian government that was the supposed enemy during the Cold War. This has served to marginalize its infuence in many international forums, in some cases even its expulsion. Simply changing the guard and installing a new smiley face, perhaps one of color, will do nothing to change this marginalization; only overt changes in behavior over an extended period of time will suffice. But we still have 6 1/2 months of BushCo to go with the economy in a death spiral for more damage to be inflicted.
That the US economy is in a death spiral is the best, strongest deterent for any further war making by BushCo, and the US military's overextended position serves to second that deterent. Virtually the whole think tank political spectrum save the utlra-right Neocon shares this assessment. They well know just how threatened the Golden Goose Globalized Economy (GGGE) is to being shattered. Compradore governments's interests would also share this POV. Suffice to say there is a lot of domestic and international push-back against BushCo, but we aren't allowed to see anymore than its iceberg-like tip.
Yesterday, and on days before that, I asked Qui Bono? The most obvious answer to me is Formerly Big Oil, the last bastion of BushCo's base, as the MIC has already gotten their pound of flesh. If the Democrats really wanted to, they could reign in BushCo. IMO, they are walking a knife's edge by not doing so. Why? Because a matrix of interests have BushCo bottled up enough so they won't kill the GGGE. Oh, we'll still get Black Propaganda like yesterday's attempt to tie Hezbollah to the Iraqi insugency, and more talk from Neocon sources in Israel and US about the need to attack Iran. Otherwise, BushCo has shot their wad.
westexas -
I think Israel has got to learn that it is not the only one who can make credible threats.
It is incredibly nervy and highly insulting to the American people for Israel to threaten an attack on Iran if Obama is elected. Who the hell do they think they are?
If I were Obama and won the election, the very first statement out of my mouth on election night would be that if Israel attacks Iran at anytime between then and the inauguration, then i) it can permanently kiss goodbye the $3 billion+ in annual US aid, and ii) it can forget about the US coming to its aid if Iran and/or others retaliate in response to Israel's attack. Of course, this would make Obama an instant target of the powerful pro-Israel lobby, but someone has got to draw a line somewhere.
Israel, a country about the size of New Jersey, has a highly exaggerated sense of its own importance and has got to learn its proper place in the overall scheme of things.
Speaking of Obama, the paranoid corner of my mind says that he should pick a very well qualified VP running mate. The fact that he is part black makes for a ready-made pretext for an assasination attempt ('Yup, must have been some of those redneck racists' who done it').
Israel may be a small country - approx 5.5 million. However, there are an estimated 13.3 million Jews worldwide. There are actually more Jews in the US than in Israel. Add that to their political clout in the US and their strategic importance in the Middle East and you have a small country with greater influence and importance than mere size or numbers would otherwise dictate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population
Not all Jewish people are in sync with the government of Israel. Supposedly, Israel is a democracy, not a theocracy.
If there is any real cohesion among people of that faith, they should make it clear they oppose the outrages of Israel the government. In reality, most Jews are probably like most Presbyterians. "Jewishness" is not a useful category.
Throughout the Iraq War, Jewish-American voters have ranked right up there with African-Americans in their overwhelming opposition to the war, a great compliment to both groups. They knew it would be bad long before the white Christians did.
However, the power cliques who moved freely between the Likud Party and the GOP (Cheney's got a ton of them working for him) have long since learned how to intimidate liberals into silence in both countries by using fear. Fear seems to cause a person to hesitate in turning his principles into an actual vote for an actual ruler. Fear seems to make a person willing to support the parties that exist but not form new parties that will express his integrity. Israel has several major political parties, but all of them support the destruction of the Palestinians by one means or another. As for America, look at the Democrats and their eternal fear of being labeled "soft" on damn near everything.
So liberal Jewish-Americans, who once organized many fine institutions to stand up for their values, could not prevent those organizations from being captured or silenced by this new crew. Worse, in Israel, piece by piece laws are being passed that call for the suppression of anyone who points out that the system can not continue as it has. Specifically, it is now a crime to question the "Jewish democracy" of Israel, when it is known by everyone that one day Jews will be a minority in Israel and cannot retain control by democratic means. Elected Arab parliamentarians who discuss this might now be threatened with expulsion from their offices. That will create an all-Jewish apartheid Knesset, which will make many things possible indeed.
I agree. I was simply pointing out that size does not always matter. :-)
Ireland is a small country, but there are a lot of Irish-Americans in the U.S. Does that mean Ireland has too much influence? There are plenty of Italian-Americans. Do we question their loyalty? Why the double standard?
Please just go cash your AIPAC check - you've earned it.
Last I knew, Ireland wasn't occupying anybody, cutting them off from fuel and water, strangling their economy, and then invading them at will because the people there are desperate.
Double standard my ass.
Show me the Irish equivalent of AIPAC. Tell me how many times we've egged Ireland on to invade another country? For that matter, show me leftist Israelis that have any influence in the US.
Did any presidential candidate go in front of a right-wing Korean-American lobbying group and make the kind of statements Obama & Clinton made to AIPAC? A right-wing German-American lobbying group? A Mexican-American one? When you can point to them, I'll believe there is a double standard.
The right wing in Israel has a disproportionate influence on US policy. I think the reasons for that are complex, but to deny it seems perverse.
In fact, some Irish-Americans did create an IRA terrorist lobby. It was well-known that contributions raised for Ireland were helping the IRA. In Boston you could not do anything to stop it.
But the Irish war was so tiny that there was no need to conspire to hijack an entire American political party to affect its outcome. JFK had a good relationship with the UK. Nor was it reasonable for Irish-Americans to think that they could so demonize the British as to get America to launch wars against them.
Perhaps the founders of AIPAC observed all this and decided to be more ambitious.
Well ,
800 000 Irish just fooked the European Consitution by voting no...
God bless all here...
Now the Poles have said that there is no point in signing up, next the Czechs.
Funny that, smaller the nation, more finely tuned to loss of sovereignty.
Looks like the Bilderburgs will have to book another hotel.
Yes, Irish-Americans's loyalty was indeed questioned. Some Italian-Americans ended up in the same concentration camps as the Japanese. German-Americans would have been put in camps during WW1 had there been any due to massive British and US propaganda. Slavs were automaticly seen as subversive socialists. And I can provide more. Unvarnished US history is UGLY, which is why so little of its ugliness gets taught at any level--Post-grad included. One must actively want to learn REAL US history and World history, too. That means lots of time spent--time very few people can afford to take, and the indoctrination system knows it. And no, I don't know it all. I uncover hideous things from time-to-time that lead to others. A good place to start is The National Security Archives as most everything there is an eyeopener.
"Yes, Irish-Americans's loyalty was indeed questioned."
Was, not is. That's my point. Just about every immigrant group was discriminated against when they got to this country, and was suspect as to their loyalties. After two or three generations, this should not be the case anymore.
How f**king obtuse can you get! None of those immigrant groups is involved in inflaming CURRENT events in a very crucial part of the world! On OUR dime.
You are a flaming troll. And yes, I am guilty of feeding the troll, but I cannot let this arrant nonsense just slide by.
Or maybe you're just an idiot.
I'm not a troll, I'm Dick Cheney.
Seriously, I think we've taken this discussion as far as we can, nobody is going to change anyone else's mind. I'd like to get back to discussing peak oil myself. BTW I thought trolls had to post the original off-topic discussion, I have only replied to others.
"I'm not a troll, I'm Dick Cheney. "
Ah, that explains everything.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled PO program...
Any Jew born in America is automatically a citizen of Israel. As far as I know Ireland and Italy have not adopted such a policy. It's irrelevant because the problem is those Likudniks who have organized to take over the GOP under the Neoconservative movement after already having a great power base in the Democratic Party. How many other pressure groups do you know which have power over both the Republican and Democratic Parties?
The oil companies.
Wall Street.
Defense contractors.
And what do the neocons do? They plot the conquest of oil states, using the weapons of defense contractors, which profits Wall Street.
Now that's what I call gaming the system. There is simply nowhere you can go in our political system where you can oppose them.
I agree, as that's been an argument of mine since 1992, when I voted Perot. It's an argument that's hard to wage because of the high level of individual's ignorance, stubbornness; the obfuscation and conflation generated by the Propaganda System; and the Machiavellian wedge political methodology waged by both parties against the American public. But the polls are encouraging; the onset of Hard Times has a way of waking up people.
The sad truth is that the US political system is terminally dysfunctional, and its days are numbered. One of the symptoms is its incapacity to raise up truly wise and effective statesmen. It isn't just that Obama and McCain are bad choices - all of the clowns that were running were bad choices. It has been a very long time since we've had any good choices. I do not expect to see any good choices put forward as long as we remain with the present system.
This a repost, it was originally posted way down the DB thread late on 6/27, I worry about the influence of Christian fundamentalists on US foreign policy
I heard an interesting take on the US hostility to Iran's nuclear program on recent a US TV talk show, from the Commonwealth Club, syndicated to ABC2 here in Oz.
Israel has a huge nuclear arsenal (200+ warheads) and 2nd strike capacity from submarines, so attacking Israel would be mass suicide for the Iranians.
However the nuclear threat would likely deter some of the Jewish diaspora from returning to Israel and may frighten some Israelis into leaving their country.
Although the program did not mention it, it seems to me that this would be anathema to the Christian fundamentalists who think that the second coming, as per the book of revelation, must necessarily be preceded by the return of all Jews to the holy land. So Iran's nuclear program stands in the way of the Jesus and it must be stopped at all costs.
Are there enough religious loonies in the Republican party/US military for an idea like this this to take hold?
Yes.
Absolutely.
Already done.
The Air Force is full of them. So are the state GOPs in the Sunbelt.
Well, I for one and staying put in Blighty. If I can single handedly feck up the 2nd coming then all is good.
George Washington was a real commander and a war hero. After becoming President, he advised the republic not to keep standing armies, since this would lead to unnecessary conflicts.
Dwight Eisenhower was Supreme Allied Commander in WW2 Europe. And he warned the nation against the dangers of the "Military Industrial Complex" when stepping down in 1961.
If the US had men of this calibre in the White House there would be absolutely no problem at all - Ike would have settled the whole matter with a five minute phone call to Jeruselem.
Unfortunately, it's amateur hour in DC. After trashing the Constitution and wrecking the economy, what can these guys do for an encore.
"Hey, let's start another war!!!"
Yeah, that should solve everything. Bunch of Twits.
Eisenhower authorized the Operation Ajax to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Iran, Mohammed Mosaddeq.
Ike also waged an undeclared, semi-covert war against Indonesia in 1958. Prior to that he reneged on the Paris agreement to hold elections in 1954 that would have united Vietnam. There's more. The lesson is too few Americans know what they need to know about their country's past.
Amen. I highly suggest Overthrow:America's Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq by Steven Kinzer to anyone that wants to learn more about the history of American interventionist policies in the 20th century. He was also interviewed on Democracy Now!.
I concur. Kinzer's book is one of many in my library.
In fairness to the last decent GOP president, Ike underwent a change of attitude about the Cold War while in office. He didn't even announce he was a Republican until 1952, so he had to accept GOP hawks like Nixon and the maniacal Dulles brothers to run his first term of office. After 1956 there were a lot of changes. The death of Stalin also changed perceptions of the Soviet threat.
However, the non-white Chinese were inflated as the Communist Threat Mark II, explaining our activities in Indonesia which culminated in the 1965-66 genocide.
The main tenet of Ike's policy was that he didn't like big government. His embrace of Massive Retaliation let him neglect the US Army and keep down the number of troops drafted. Nukes were comparatively cheap. Seven of his eight federal budgets were balanced. I'm afraid that all those dirty wars in the 3rd World may also have looked cheap to him... but they didn't stay that way.
Good old Ike left many thousands of surrendered German soldiers to live in utter misery, on minimum rations and dying like flies, as he blamed them all, even the 16 year old boys, for the concentration camps.
He was a war criminal, he just was never brought to book.
History has shown that massive deaths among German POWs in US Army custody have been proven untrue. For one thing, no mass graves, or reports of massive cremation.
What happened is that many "Hitler Youth" etc. were simply let go, without proper paperwork. Thus the # released was much smaller than the # captured.
The Allies did miscalculate the # of people that they needed to feed in occupied Germany. Proper allowance was not made for the tens of millions fleeing the Soviet advance.
Incompetence more than malice.
Alan
There have been grossly exaggerated accounts of German deaths.
Just the same, it is clear that Eisenhower abrogated the Geneva convention, and deliberately instituted cruel and inhuman conditions.
This was not in a situation where the critical problem was a lack of supplies, but was due to a wish to give them 'a taste of their own medicine':
http://www.cyberussr.com/hcunn/for/us-germany-pow.html
Although not on the level of a Himmler, this is clearly criminal behaviour, and the 16 year old boy soldiers it partly affected were hardly to blame for the sins of their parent's generation.
It stains Eisenhower's name, and it is right and proper that it should forever do so.
He also waited until he was out of office and couldn't do anything about the Military Industrial Complex to warn us about it.
Don't get me wrong ... I'd take Ike over Dubya any day, a thousand times over. But that is more a measure of how far the presidency has sunk than it is an endorsement of Ike.
What I most liked about Ike was how he set Pentagon spending.
He wrote the military budget himself, having some experience in such matters. Congress was only allowed to vote up or down. Since Congressmen couldn't change it to benefit their constituents, the Pentagon had no reason to go to Congressmen to champion their boondoggles against Ike's will. Defense contractors were efficient, fast and very cheap compared to today.
However, you can see that only a former five-star general like Ike had the credibility to run things this way. He knew it would end when he left office, so he gave the military-industrial complex speech.
We still do not have a solution to this insidious cancer.
What solution? Isn't this cancer terminal?
It sure is. As I've said in other posts, the US political system is terminally dysfunctional. The workings of the Military Industrial Complex are yet another symptom.
Note that on the same day the Fifth Fleet said it will keep the Hormuz open.
It should also have said that the Fifth Fleet will stop any Israeli attack on Iran.
Well as long as israel is winning the war no fleet of any number will come from america. When israel's defeat finally start many fleets will come to save israel, they may have take control of the strait of hormuz inspite of inevitable numerous suicide attacks on their sea crafts by irani navy and volunteers but there is little they can do at land. Sure american and israeli air force can do a lot of damage both at battlefield and to civilians in iran but still I think israel will be conquered by iranis given the large number of irani armed forces, their weapons, their spirit, their moral, the tiny size of israel even if no other country join the war against israel. Its almost sure that syria and jordan will have their own war with israel parallel with israel's war with iran. There is also a strong chance that turkey atleast remain nuetral and egypt may have big political changes in it.
Just like the SS had to back off to let people kill JFK,
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/171830/secret_service_jfk/
the fifth Fleet will have to stand down to let Israel thru.
Iran will not wait for a Warren Commission.
Russia will know the instant the orders leave DC/Tel Aviv/London.
And so Iran will know.
The timeline will be hours/days.
Right, like IAEA Chief said: Any attack on Iran will turn Middle East into "fireball."
Juan Cole in his blog today calls the first "redline" mentioned above "bullshit," as there is absolutely no evidence of any attempt by Iran to highly enrich uranium, which is the first needed step in atomic bomb making. I'm not going to repeat the many points I've made about this issue, its illegality, utter insanity, and how it will end the whole globalization project. Nor do I think the Straits of Hormuz can be controlled by the US Navy. Not mentioned is the fact that Saudi oil facilities will be attacked to deny their use to the enemy, which from Iran's POV will be the whole of the Western world. I could go on, but it's pointless, as it's all a rehash of previous analysis.
Bottom line is in any conversation about Iran's "nuclear ambitions" it must be stated that they are only doing what's Iran's RIGHT to do as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and have submitted to IAEA inspections that not even the USA, not to mention Israel, won't allow.
Interseting, you print the truth about a situation and you get a negative ranking, which is now showing positive as I write this reply. Why is what I wrote negative, or is the person(s) too cowardly to write a cogent reply?
It's a coordinated dance to the ballroom of war with Iran. Cheney and Lieberman are doing some heavyweight pushing behind the scenes. Israel and the neocons are in this together. The debate behind the scenes is "when" not "if" and whether Israel or the US fires the first missiles.
Seymor Hersh is reporting in The New Yorker:
Looks like the war is still on.
Did anyone else listen to the Hersh interview on "Fresh Air" last night? If he's right, Cheney & Co are irrational and delusional. The actions of madmen cannot be predicted. WASF.
http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=13&prgDate=06-30...
Iran has threatened heavy retaliation if Israel attacks. I am virtually certain that Israel is very concerned about Iranian retaliation. To preclude an Iranian response on Israeli territory, Israel most assuredly will have warned Iran of nuclear retaliation should a wave of Iranian missiles rain on Tel Aviv. The wild card is whether Iran actually has nukes it may have gotten from the former Soviet Union and whether they can make a counter threat of nuke retaliation against Israel. It could get extremely dicey.
Don't worry. The days of israeli nuclear harassment of the region is over. It not matter whether or not iran has nuclear capability, Pakistan do. The counter nuclear attack warning would come as soon as muhammed ali's left punch followed his right punch in ring. The tables were turned when pakistan developed intermediate range ballistic missile abdali of 5000 km range that easily bring entire israel in our range. We have a declared arsenal of over 120 nuclear bombs and a few dozen hydrogen bombs and we will no doubt use it not only for our own defense but also for the defense of arab countries, iran, turkey and central asian muslim countries. We have an already developed vast underground infrastructure and launch capabilites. The nuclear attack could be limited in intensity (by reducing the bomb size) so that only jewish colonies get affected and jerusalem and palestinians areas not affected thermally though they will inevitably be affected by radiations, that is why we keep nuclear attack as last option.
I think I'll take the afternoon off to start digging a basement under my bomb shelter. You mfs are scaring me.
How does this differ from the misguided American who thinks nuclear bombs were built to be used and that US will start using them soon?
The whole point of nuclear weapons is deterrence.
US has that. So has Russia, China, UK, France, India, Pakistan... and the list is growing.
Whether we in the OECD countries like it or not, this development is inevitable and we really have no moral right to stop others getting nukes either, unless we disarm ourselves as well.
Of course, we can always bully others to submission and that is in fact what we are doing.
To which extent it'll work remains to be seen.
Where did you get this idea?
In American nuclear thinking it is mutual assured destruction (MAD) that is the deterrent. Nuclear weapons with large enough payloads in large numbers minus any meaningful defensive system provides the MAD. However, once you change that calculus, add in a defensive system, reduce the payload or the number, and that mutual assured destruction is no more.
Which explains why North Korea's artillery pointed at Seoul alone deters the US?
MAD is desirable from a policymakers standpoint, but its by no means necissary to deter.
Dezakin,
First - Pyong Yang's artillery is not nuclear, so it really doesn't fit into this discussion.
Second - It's a stretch to suggest that artillery alone is what deters the US. That is your assertion only, based on....?
Third - please show me where I said that MAD was necessary for deterrence? What I said was that MAD was the basis of our nuclear thinking. It is, of course, conceivable that other basis of deterrence exist.
EDIT:It's a stretch to suggest that artillery alone is what deters the US. That is your assertion only, based on....?
I so rarely agree Mr. Akin, but I have to back him up on this one.
North Korean guns, clear and present danger to South
Granted this is not the same deterrence as a nuclear weapon, but it is well understood that an artillery attack on Seoul by the north would be devastating.
And is about as likely as my dropping a golden poop in the toilet. Folks, there is a reason Bush and Co. pay almost no real attention to NK: they simply are not a threat. They are well managed by the Chinese.
The greatest threat to Korea, in fact, is the Chinese. They have been engaging in revisionist history regarding the ancient history of Korea and have made recent (in the last few years) claimsto the effect that Korea down to the Han River (Seoul) is, in fact, historically Chinese.
This is utter crap, but when has that ever stopped anyone? Korea, being a minor power and not unified until well after China was, historically had to pay tribute and act as a vassal state of China. This is a far cry from saying Korea and Koreans north of the Han were ever Chinese. (Genetics proves this is bunk. Koreans' closest cousins are... the Japanese.)
China's interest lies in NK actually having some natural resources, unlike SK. Also, for China to essentially annex SK would be beyond stupid. They could do it, but the one thing the Koreans have always done is fiercely defend their nation. (The Japanese annexation was achieved politically (with US consent via Taft-Katsura), not by force. There was a resistance movement throughout the occupation. Kim Il-sung came to power via one of the arms of that resistance. China claiming SK would be it's own Iraq, which I am sure it is not interested in.
NK, however, is ripe for the picking. The relationship between the two is long and extensive. The NK regime is weak in reality. It rules by fear, by personality cult and the deprivation of its people of any knowledge of the outside world. China need not officially take over anything. All it need do is maintain a puppet and slowly bleed the nation dry of its resources.
Were the Chinese to actively annex, they still would see little resistance, imho. The people are already brainwashed into docility and unquestioning allegiance to authority. They've already made the rationale public and can also claim to be acting to prevent the collapse of NK and it spinning out of control, thus igniting another Korean conflagration.
Sorry... a long aside. Anyone interested enough, I'll scrounge up some links.
Cheers
And is about as likely as my dropping a golden poop in the toilet.
I missed the part where I speculated on the likelihood of an attack from either the US or NK. I would say that an attack from either side is highly unlikely, but infinitely more probable than you shitting gold. The fact that North Korea deters an American attack by threatening Seoul with artillery bombardment is not a new development nor one that is the result of my speculation alone.
SEOUL'S VULNERABILITY IS KEY TO WAR SCENARIOS
Ease up, there, Hoss. I didn't mean to imply you had. I was just commenting on the thread with a little historical/current events background and from the perspective of someone having spent eight years in the theater.
Uh, nope. About equal, at best. You can't imagine how people living here giggle at the international histrionics over NK/SK/US relations... The one time we actually came close, I knew it. I could feel it. Most Koreans were oblivious because they had no feel for the US political mind. But I did. I told my friends we were a lot closer than they thought we were. Recent revelations about Carter's visit and how many hours Clinton was from bombing Yongbyon have borne out my suspicions at that time.
While this is hardly a definitive or scientific analysis: It ain't happenin'. See the golden poo above.
Cheers
LMAO! Man, you get a greenclick for that line alone.
Thanks! (I think...)
Cheers
I read it from the people who practically wrote the book on deterrence, nuclear arms race strategy and MAD. That is, RAND.
I agree that MAD is one deterrence strategy which has prevailed in the old discussion of USA vs former SU.
However, slow motion 'MAD' using sticks and stones is not a very heavy deterrence. It requires retaliative capability using very heavy loss weapons, such as nuclear weapons.
The point of nuclear weapons is deterrence - the potentiality of great losses through their use.
When everybody has them, who's going to start using them, when everybody gains to lose?
We did fine enough with the 'crazy communists' (sic), so I hope we can do the same with the 'terrorist islamists' (sic).
Anybody who wants a big picture view on to this manufacturing of enemies (communists, terrorists, islamists), I recommend 'The Power of Nightmares' by Adam Curtis.
Hello Peakoil Tarzan,
Yep, I gotta agree. If a full-on nuclear/bioweapon gift exchange quickly results from this MidEast War--even Jay Hanson's Themo/Gene Prediction Timeline will be historically seen as a writings of a wild-eyed cornucopian-optimist. :(
Just picking numbers off the top of my head with no research: Let's say Iran-Israel War would cost $100 trillion to the global economy, and who knows how many lives. It would be far, far cheaper to pay the Israelis to live elsewhere, then guarantee their travel right [for those so inclined] to go on the 'Jews to Jerusalem' equivalent of the Muslim Hadj to Mecca.
For some hugely wasteful and deluded reason, every religion needs its physical version of Disneyland to validate their faith in some concrete matter. My guess is the High Priests always create these physical manifestations because the generated income, easy Priest-lifestyle sure beats working like the rest of the world.
This way the religion problem is removed from the oil equation; the 'Iran-Iraq fear premium' would be mostly removed from the oil markets, thus the supply-demand situation would be much clearer to all. Then, the planet can get busy solving the 'Shia-Shiite' conflict, which has festered for nearly 1,000 years, plus solving the problem of Fundamentalist Christians seeking the Rapture and Armageddon, plus solving the Hindu-Muslim Impasse, and so on.
IMO, Peak Outreach to all is my best solution towards this end because energy could care less what you think or believe--only what you actually do has any effect. My feeble two cents.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, your stuff is wonderfully sane. Keep it up, please!
(conversion factor: one written plaudit = 15.57 up arrows)
Just some 'wild & crazy' thoughts:
To avert the MidEast War--relocate Israel to the North American SouthWest--afterall, somewhat similar in climate and water problems.
Then, WTSHTF in my general area:
The highly-skilled Israeli Army with lots of jetplanes, tanks, nukes, missles, etc, will come in real handy as we fend off the inevitable invasion from a collapsing Mexico [or the Israelis can easily militarily grab the PEMEX fields], plus greatly assist in the future 40-years of a northern, desert-migration Exodus towards Cascadia, and other green pastures.
Alternatively, by immediately relocating Israel inside Cascadia, then it instantaneously will preclude the 50 million SouthWesterners [and who knows how many from Mexico?] from ever migrating north as our desert ecosystem evaporates away.
Then, will being a Phoenician = Palestinian?
The Las Vegas strip = the Gaza strip?
Albequerque = Armageddon?
Mexico City = Masada?
It is fascinating to me to mind-stretch, then extrapolate further all kinds of future possibilities.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Why not re-locate all of the African-Americans back to Africa? That would end all of the racial strife in the US. We could then re-locate all of the North African Europeans back to Algeria and Morocco.
Actually, I've got a better idea. Why don't we re-locate all of the white Americans back to Europe. That would clear up all sorts of problems. Oh wait, European-Americans don't want to be forcibly removed from the country they call home, where they grew up and where their parents grew up? Yeah, that's probably how the Israeli's feel.
Leanan, can you get rid of this troll, please?
Enough is enough.
Not everyone who disagrees with you is a troll. Please feel free to attack my arguments if you disagree with them. My point is that it's pretty easy for white folks in America (I'm one of them) to say what's right or wrong in the Middle East, but it's probably a lot different if you live there. We should try to put ourselves in the Palestinian's shoes and the Israeli's shoes before we say that millions of people of one variety or other should just move. We are all people, and it would do us good to remember that once in a while.
You're not a troll because you disagree with me. You're a troll because you are just trying to inflame things.
I have been attacking your arguments all along, but with no response, because you are not interested in that sort of give and take. Your wacky "double standard" posts about Ireland, etc. We don't give Ireland 3 billion (nominal - I suspect it's much more than that) in military aid every year. Military aid that is used in some reprehensible ways.
We are indeed all people, and it would do a world of good if Israelis would remember that once in a while, vis a vis the Palestinians.
Not "cockroaches", as they call them. People.
Fine. To your point on 3 billion in military aid. That is a lot, but I think that it is somewhat distorted to say that it's far and above what we have given to other countries, sometimes in different ways. We gave the Afghans lots of aid in their fight agianst the Soviets, we gave the South Vietnamese plenty of aid (and our soldiers lives) in their fight against the North, same with South Korea wrt North Korea.
We have a long history of foreign involvement in just about every region in the world, sometimes taking both sides (Iran vs. Iraq). The part I don't get is why the only one that seems to get people upset is Israel. We are allowing horrible abuses in Zimbabwe without lifting a finger, but that doesn't seem to get people riled up.
Several dozen wrongs do not make a right.
We (I'm talking the US here) have an extremely sorry history of foreign interventions, usually in support of corporate interests. It is shameful, not something to use as a standard.
But the fact is that Israel is not the "only one that gets people upset". You are spinning and twisting like crazy. The US supports Israel always, and to the hilt! You are making the US unconditional support of Israel into a double standard against Israel.
Classic neocon Orwellian doublespeak.
You are a troll - go away.
Hello Consumer,
Thxs for responding. Calm down--I was just openly musing as I have no agenda or power to dictate global policy. Consider it as fiction. I was just trying to get people to consider other potential paths for the Downslope Ride. They will have to decide for themselves how to shape our future.
Yeah, I know, but it's been a rough day hear on DB. I just want people to remember that all of these groups we talk about on DB are made up of human beings, sometimes people seem to forget that. This is especially true when people are talking about the food situation.
I am going to hug my NPK bag now...
What we should have done was give the freed slaves entire states in the West in 1865, so they would leave the Southerners to pick their own cotton. That would have been hilarious. Maybe the blacks would have made better arrangements with the local Indians than whites ever intended to.
See, the joke you're missing is that there is a giant global war between the rich and the poor. The Palestians had their land stolen from them because they were too poor to have a voice. The king of Saudi Arabia told Franklin Roosevelt that if the German people had committed a great crime against the Jews, the Germans should lose land to the Jews, not the Palestians.
Why did this not happen? The Germans, even in ruins, were part of the rich white world. The Jews were, in our eyes, 3/5ths of a white man and didn't qualify for valuable real estate. The Palestians were, in our eyes, 2/5ths of a white man and DING DING DING we have our loser.
So the issue here is who gets to decide when to declare a moratorium on land theft and genocide? I guarantee you we are all too biased; we will use theft and murder to get in power, then try to freeze the rest of the world into place so no one else can follow our path. The Jews are white Europeans in the eyes of non-white victims of Western imperialism, so Israel will inevitably be seen as a Trojan horse to resume the monstrous crimes of the West.
We better solve this problem fast, because there's some post-collapse mass migrations coming so vast that they'll blow our minds. Wait'll the Arctic is ice-free and there's no longer a Canadian government to stop the Chinese. "Hey, if you got to do it to the Injuns why can't we do it to you?"
I know I said I would stop posting on this topic, but I can't believe I actually agree with you. East Germany would have made a lot more sense as a Jewish state, but rich white people tend not to be punished for their crimes.
I can't believe you are actually arguing this point as though it were a serious contemplation. Maybe time to go for a walk.
Now that you've said it, I feel safe to join in. I thought peak oil was scary.
The question is, do your positions reflect the policy of the new Pakistani government, and perhaps more importantly, the shaken-up Pakistani Army?
It seems the new coalition in power there is either keeping its real intentions secret, or the US media does not want to investigate it because this would reveal a massive defeat for America domination in the region. Folks over here seem to think Musharraf is still in charge and fully on our side.
It must also be pointed out that many governments must now show two faces, one to their own citizens, and one to Washington, as the demands of the former are utterly opposed by the latter.
>>so that only jewish colonies get affected <<
Sorry mate , I cannot let this pass without comment.
1. What have the Jews ever done to Pakistan to allow that kind of racist language?
2. The minute you launch , India has about 2 minutes to decide if your missiles will go south and east or north and west (you launch vertically). So the hindu kuffar and sikh kuffar have two minutes to launch. I suppose you have a good telephone link to the premier of India? I suppose your general / nutter / boss will be able to convince the Indian premier that ''its ok, we are going for the 'jew kuffar only'...We get the Christian Kuffar later...''.
3. Last time I was in the Sub-continent, the phonelinks were pretty shitty.
4. Maybe, assuming the Jew Kuffar and the American Kuffar do nothing, perhaps the Indian Kuffar will do nothing as well?
Big risk....
Maybe Pakistan's population bomb can be resolved in a microsecond?
Maybe cut in half by 20000 deg C?
Truly, if you believe in the the teachings of the prophet (pbuh) then forget nuclear weapons as a solution.
Peak oil and Religious Nuclear War, now that's proper doomer porn.
There's some seriously complicated politics and an unexpected turn of events could create one serious shitstorm.
I hope it's just more sabre rattling and a strategy to divert attention away from oil and banking.
So,this is WisdomfromPakistan.I wonder what passes for StupidityfromPakistan.
Also,before you post on TOD again it may pay to go back to what passes for school in Pakistan and polish your English grammar.
Must you display American Exceptionalism and arrogance?
No need to criticize foreigners English skills. As an English speaker living in a foreign country and not speaking the local language I'm always amazed that people even try to speak our language and given how different the grammars often are it's not at all a surprise how well it comes across. We should welcome input from other countries as we tend to get too embalmed in our own perspectives here. I think there are problems with this writer's arguments but I'm very interested in hearing from him about the view on the street over there.
If Israel is telegraphing an airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, then I would bet on almost any action by Israel except for that one. Normally we don't have the slightest clue as to what Israel is going to do until way after they've already done it.
Iranian missiles heading in Israel's direction would have to get past Patriot missile batteries in Iraq first. Then they'd have to get past Israel's own missile shield.
Does anyone have any idea what happens if you drop a nuclear bunker buster on an oil field? If Israel did that to Iran, would Iran become suddenly irrelevant and broke?
And now we have Hezbollah in Iraq??? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080701/ap_on_re_mi_ea/hezbollah_in_iraq
Just gets curiouser and curiouser...
Does anyone have any idea what happens if you drop a nuclear bunker buster on an oil field?
I can't tell you what the effect would be on the oil field, but I'm pretty certain I can figure out what it will do to the price of oil.
If Israel did that to Iran, would Iran become suddenly irrelevant and broke?
I'm thinking that in the case of a shooting war with Iran, the country destined to become irrelevant and broke is the US.
Hmmm...something does not add up here. Can you say "Contention between Gov. Depts?"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEACWKddG6xE&refer=home
could it be that this sabre rattling will subside along about,oh say september, a meaningless agreement on iran's nukes will be reached(thus demonstrating bush's "superior diplomatic skill"), the price of oil and gasoline will fall, voters will fall in love (again)with the gop. old mcgimp will be elected and the country will live in ignorant bliss for 4 more years. and meanwhile the debt will rise to $18T, (mcgimp will not raise taxes).
Some of it might happen. Any country that voted for GWB twice could well vote for McCain (even if one buys that the GOP stole the elections, it never should have been close enough to steal). The $18T debt is plausible as well, as is 4 years of ignorance. It is the bliss part that seems most unlikely to me.