 | Countdown to $200 oil: International Energy Agency says current prices justified... | The Oil Drum: Europe | Why oil costs over $140 per barrel: the failure of leadership |  |
178 comments on The Fantasy World of the UK Government
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
178 comments on The Fantasy World of the UK Government
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
I think they should develop a high - exponential scenario as this seems to be the shape of most of the curves we see in the prices.
Tell BERR what you think.
I have told them to include a scenario that assumes peak world 'net exports' of oil in 2005 - since that is what has actually happened!
http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/
Euan,
You recently wrote about the UK "State of Emergency", where North Sea depletion is resulting in larger and larger trade deficits which will continue to balloon going forward.
I think I have the answer!
According to BP Statistical review, the UK used 620 million barrels of oil in 2007. Lets assume this stays constant (e.g. economic growth is subsidized by increases in efficiency or energy substitution.) That means over the next 8 years, the UK will consume around 5 billion barrels of oil.
Using the BERR expections for "high case" of oil prices (meaning the risk is to the low side of these numbers), wouldn't it make sense for the energy experts at BERR and UK Finance Ministry get together and arbitrage their expertise vis a vis the futures markets?
To wit, the ENTIRE futures strip from now out to 2016 is above $140. (many of the contracts are above $146). By selling forward what are obviously significantly overpriced contracts compared to the 'high case', the UK Finance Ministry can pocket $275 billion in next 8 years ($142.5-$87.5 high price average times 5 billion barrels).
Much of the above budget deficit then disappears. If they also sell forward natural gas and coal vs their 'high case' as well, then the deficit would turn to a surplus!
Problem solved.
And we americans thought we had the monopoly on imbecility and cluelessness. What is the UK thinking?!! And what kind of deficits will they be running in the future if they persist in thinking they are a world power? Maybe an Irish Sea power.. And 2 new huge aircraft carriers...Jeez...http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4262046.ece
Personally, I doubt whether these aircraft carriers will ever be completed. The French have had enormous problems with theirs and I believe they are heavily involved in this lot.
The "best" thing about them is that they so drain the "defence" budget that there is little left over to start new "fronts against terrorism".
These expensive toys are highly vulnerable to shore-based missiles and so cannot be used properly in restricted waters like the Persian Gulf. They are about as useful as the battleships the Prince of Wales and the Repulse were in 1941
Alfred,
You are right about aircraft carriers being obsolete dinosaurs with HUGE radar signatures. The War Nerd explains this in his usual amusing, snarky style (vulgar language warning):
http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=6779&IBLOCK_ID=35
Errol in Miami
edited to fix link
Where do you think we Americans got our imbecility and cluelessness? The acorn doesn't fall far from the oak, as they say.
Frankly speaking, I'm not sure whether my brain is wired to grasp the real meaning and consequences following charts like this. But one thing comes to mind : Zimbabwe, but take it easy I don't understand that either.
How and where do they start... to make policy with such a chart on top of your political desktop ?
Ntae, I think this comment explains why you were / are a hedge fund manager and I am / was a geologist. To be fair to Gordon Brown he did sell most of the UK's gold at $10 per ounce just when no one else was expecting that, wrong footing the markets completely.
And back in 1999, when the UK was pumping more oil than it had ever done before we managed to sell some of it at below $10 / bbl proving how liberalised and informed markets can promote and support industrial civilistaion.
You just need to compare this with how the ex KGB Putin scum bag is managing Russian resources. It seems he wants to sell most of what is left of Russia's oil at over $300 / barrel. Talk about clueless commies, eh?
But I gotta say your running a bit close to the mark suggesting that the UK government may be speculating on the futures markets. There's a strange irony about Followers speculating on the future of a country that doesn't have one.
OOOOyn
€,
Sarcanol alert on.
Your comment proves that former British governments cannot be accused of being greedy!
Must those bloody capitalistic commies be damned!
They may be thinking about ……..“Back to the Future”.
Sarcanol alert off.
This illustrates some of the new rules, earlier discussed on this forum, coming into play.
What a brilliant idea!
That would be putting our money where their mouth is :(