20% renewable by 2020 doesn't necessarily mean non-renewables (ie coal) will decrease. If we are talking electrical output not heat or fuels the reference case for 2008 could be say 50 GW total generation capacity with 1 GW 'clean' renewables (this is a guess) or 2%. That means non-renewables or 'dirty' are 49 GW.

Here's 3 generation scenarios each with 20% renewables

growth: 75 GW total = 15 clean + 60 dirty
stagnation: 50 total = 10 clean + 40 dirty
recession: 25 total = 5 clean + 20 dirty

From an emissions point of view any increase on the current 49 dirty GW is bad so recession or stagnation is preferred. By golly that's what we'll have then.

I like the look of Lester's 80% reduction by 2020 plan better, myself.

We're a bunch of wimps - no one shows any ambition whatsoever.

Right on Gav,

Yes, the 80% solution not the 20% solution! Australia would also become import-independent, surely even Andrew Bolt could get his head around that one.

Alan Kohler did his whole Inside Business program this morning on Emissions Trading. http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2007/s2295654.htm
Kohler seems to have been thrown somewhat by the line on Page 11 of the Garnaut report that it's already "too late" to avoid significant climate change.

Gav,
Note though a lot of browns reductions are for stopping rain-forest destruction and re-planting trees. While Australia has stopped most tree clearing, re-planting is not going to be considered in initial carbon trading. This is probably a serious flaw.
The balance, almost eliminating FF for transportation and electricity production will boil down to replacing FF in transport with electricity and thus generating a LOT more electricity by renewables ( and nuclear?).

I can't see much of the world automobile capacity being used for wind generators because they will be flat out building BEV and PHEV's.
Some steel from not building larger vehicles may be available for wind towers. Surplus aluminium from scrapped aircraft could be used for turbine blades and transmission lines. For Australia to replace 90% of the coal used in coal-fired electricity generation( keeping the coal fired power plants for back-up during days of poor wind, while using hydro to flatten hour by hour changes in wind power) would require us to increase our wind capacity by a similar amount to our entire existing wind capacity every year. With world wide shortages now, we would have to build up a new wind power manufacturing capacity. At least we have surplus copper, steel, aluminium. Similarly for solar PV capacity.

Wind Turbine Blades made out of Aluminium? ("Congealed Electricity")

Oh dear. I was kind of hoping they'd be sequestering some (ahem) Carbon Fibre....
;-)

We certainly need to ramp up our production of alternative energy equipment.

Re-opening the closed Vestas factory in Tassie would be a good start.

Ideally an increased MRET would result (perhaps with some additional govt encouragement) in manufacturing of wind turbines, raw silicon, PV panels and CSP reflector plates (as well as EV / PHEV cars).

We are in the fortunate position of being able to use our own raw materials, our own energy and our own manufacturing capability to create a non-fossil fuel dependent future if we want to - unlike many other countries, which need to source one or more pieces of the puzzle from elsewhere.

The former Vestas factory at Wynyard is now making mining machinery. The hard rock mining industry is of course totally dependent on coking coal or electrolytic smelting paying 3c/kwh max. Also diesel and ANFO explosive made from both oil and gas. China Power and Light bought half the Roaring 40s windpower subsidiary off Tas Hydro. I presume their turbine factory in China uses European designs. Australia will earn fees (whoopee!) even if no new wind farms are built locally.

Some kind of energy storage breakthrough will be needed if windpower is ever to make the aluminium for new towers. Perhaps we should set aside x% of remaining fossil energy for such purposes.

Boof,
"Some kind of energy storage breakthrough will be needed if windpower is ever to make the aluminium for new towers"

We don't need an energy storage breakthrough, aluminium is being produced in Australia using NG and coal generated electricity. Wind-power generated on Australian S-East Coast and West Coast of Tasmania can be backed-up by the relatively large hydro capacity and thus save most of the coal used now, with additional NG for residential daily peak power. On the few days each year when there is very little wind along the east coast,and NG powerplants are at capacity,and hydro is in danger of being depleted, idle coal fired plants could be started. This takes 12-24 hr but would have lots of warning that hydro was starting to run down. Another alternative would be to have all coal fired plants capable of duel coal/NG as is done in WA, and only use them as wind back-up. Whats missing now is;1) additional wind capacity 2) additional pumps for pump storage 3) an improved grid from Hunter valley to Brisbane, and probably increased capacity of Bass Straight connection, allowing Gladstone to be linked to Tasmania.

This definitely needs study. The driest autumn since 1974 dealt a heavy blow to Tas Hydro who evidently are not interested in pumped storage. Could be why they imported over $100m in coal power via the cable. Some sites on the Tas west coast lend themselves to pumped hydro storage of windpower, though the platypus might not like brackish water pumped up from lower down. I guess the bean counters are asking why dedicate the wind output to water pumping when they could get double revenue from separate electricity sales.

Aluminium and zinc anode smelters could be told to redesign their plant so it can be turned down on short notice.

Gav,
Reading Lester Browns article in more detail what he is proposing could be implemented by 2050, but it seems totally unrealistic to replace ALL oil,ALL coal and 75% of NG with wind and solar in 12 years!.
In Australia's situation its clear that we can only make significant reductions in carbon emissions in 12 years by phasing out coal. It seems that the Garnaut Report is taking aim at eliminating coal, with carbon sequestration the sugar an a bitter pill. There is no way that any significant CCS will occur in next 12 years, but could see existing coal fired plants converted to CSM.
Taxes on "other carbon sources" are really included for fairness and increases in petrol prices are going to be collateral damage. The world oil price rises are going to do much more to reduce consumption than any CO2 tax.
Direct legislation to directly reduce coal use(for example mandating 1% NG replacement and 2%wind or solar replacement of coal use per year; much larger capacity changes) and improve vehicle fuel efficiency by 50% could allow CO2 targets to be met with a very mode CO2 tax(much less than required to make CCS viable).
So by 2020 we would have 20% of electricity generated by solar and wind, 6-8% from hydro and a big part of the remaining coal generation capacity able to progressively switch to NG to continue to meet targets beyond 2020. So instead of coal being used as the cheapest base-load, it could be used during longer periods of high demand(heat waves,low wind periods), or low hydro storage(droughts) or as is occurring in WA if there was an interruption of NG supply. Wind and solar would eventually be the low priced fuels, a mix of NG/coal to top-up predictable changes in demand and hydro capacity mainly used for short term grid balancing(greatest value hence highest priced).

Reading Lester Browns article in more detail what he is proposing could be implemented by 2050, but it seems totally unrealistic to replace ALL oil,ALL coal and 75% of NG with wind and solar in 12 years!.

Well - its certainly an aggressive target :-)

It would be interesting to cost replacing all our coal with solar, biogas and wind (and maybe some geothermal and ocean power) plus an expanded and smarter grid with more storage built into it over a 12 year period. If we find ourselves mired in global recession it would actually be a pretty good nation building project.

But I'm not claiming that anyone is likely to try and do this - just that it would be a good aspirational target instead of all the namby pamby half measures people usually propose.