232 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2008
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232 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2008
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Mac, if you have access to Shadowstats.com it would be helpfull...I don't and am not going to pay the price for it. Ocassionally I get some Shadowstats info from other economic sights. The last stat I saw for M3 (calculated as it was before suspenion of publication by the Fed) was 18-23%, which would be about a doubling of the supply every 3 years.
As for the neg ratings...to hell with them. The damn rating system that they have created here is for beans. Only nitwits would use the ratings to downgrade a post for content and no one at the site is doing anything about misuse of the ratings. Maybe they are former government employees?
Maybe they are former government employees? BWHAHAHA ;}
"Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting."-shadowstats
You're right, the Fed is pushing inflation as hard as they can.
Then, after the election Obama's Volker jacks up rates to 10%
to bring the $ stability.
Dr Housing Bubble has taken the lead in predicting IMHO:
"
It must come as no surprise that prices are falling off a cliff both nationwide and in California. The reason California carries a lot of weight is that taken alone, California would be the world’s 8th largest economy. California is also the hub of the mortgage bubble. We earlier reported that prices in the golden state were off by 27 percent but have to update that since the C.A.R. recently came out saying the median price drop now stands at a stunning 35%! Given the $500 billion Option ARM implosion which will be one of the major stories in the second half, we can nearly predict the next few months.
Nationwide prices are down 15.2% which is the steepest drop ever. Even worse than the drop during the Great Depression because of the speed in which prices are correcting. What once seemed a mere impossibility, the forecasts for nationwide drops of 20 to 30 percent almost seem like foregone conclusions. We should be seeing 20 percent this year and if prices accelerate, who really knows. These forecasts were for bottoms in 2009 and 2010 at least if we are to look at futures markets but a 35% drop in California in one year is even shocking bears like myself. The ferocity of the correction is stunning."
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
"Even worse than the drop during the Great Depression"
Mc: His interesting comment is that even a guy like himself who predicted this is still shocked. IMO the same phenomenom will happen with oil supply and prices-it is very clear what is coming yet it will still be shocking to knowledgeable observers as we are all influenced by the MSM which plays into our desire to engage in wishful thinking.
It goes without saying that the home equity loan is going extinct. But how far down are we from 2004, when those loans pumped close to a trillion $ into the US economy? And what was the multiplier effect of each of those borrowed $ in further economic activity? If each loaned $ created $3 more in GNP that year, then won't we soon be seeing a $4 trillion reduction in the (inflation-adjusted) GNP? Is there any place left where we can (foolishly) make up the loss?
I'm not sure what to make of it either, but I respect their desire to address the high number of comments.
I'd like us all to allow them some space for experimentation. If this doesn't work, they'll yank it and try something else. No need to be mean to people who are volunteering their time to give you a space to have your say.
-André