<Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008) The Oil Drum DrumBeat: July 7, 2008>
<DrumBeat: July 5, 2008 DrumBeat DrumBeat: July 7, 2008>

232 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version

SamuM on July 6, 2008 - 12:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Do you mean this:

It doesn't seem to have a very good track record of forecasting recession on its own.

Any other indicators one should be looking at?

Funnily enough, even LEI seems to indicate that US might not be heading into a recession, but in fact recovering (barring financial meltdown of course). LEI appears to have a fairly good track record in predicting recoveries (but not downturns).

Now, I am not an economist/trader/financial analyst, so insert your favorite disclaimer here.

BTW, you get a vote up from me almost very time you write about derivatives deflation in the same paragraph. While the discussion on that is still raging, it does look like monetary deflation being masked by commodity price inflation. The derivative bomb seems in the process of exploding/defusing (dependin on one's POV).

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
mcgowanmc on July 6, 2008 - 1:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, of course. Thank you for the pic.

"It doesn't seem to have a very good track record of forecasting recession on its own."

Note flat line until we invade Iraq. The final straw. Price of bunker fuel becomes unmanageable.

"this is turning into a comedy skit."-Dr Housing Bubble

“We shouldn’t, in a sense, be surprised when the data are, are, soft,” Swagel managed to say.

Does the economy need another stimulus package?

“I-it seems, you know, it seems like that’s, that’s enough, uh, enough.”

What might trigger another round of economic stimulus?

“I don’t, I guess I don’t have an answer, I mean, you know, beyond saying we look at all the data and, um — so, my usual line.”

(On the 127 000 jobs lost last month.) 62k + fake BLS Birth/death #'s.

"This is actually becoming a comedy skit. How long can we keep telling Americans the economy is fine without being chased out of Washington with a revolution?".

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
TechGuy on July 6, 2008 - 3:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

While the discussion on that is still raging, it does look like monetary deflation being masked by commodity price inflation.

The real question is how will gov't reacts to deflation. Obviously if the economy were permitted to run its natural course, it would be deflation, but rarely does this happen.
I believe that the gov't will put out all stops to prevent deflation. If that trigglers hyper-inflation so be it.

Last week Steve Liesman (CNBC economist) said that if he was given a choice of deflation or hyperinflation. He would choose hyperinflation as the lesser of two evils. I personally would prefer deflation. Hyper-inflation always results in deflation in the end, and creates even worse misery. Pay now, or pay much greater later.

http://www.bad-money.com/ (Kevin Philips)
"Wall street has privatized the profits, but socialized the risks". I couldn't put in any better. The financials rack in the profits creating bubbles, but when the bubble pops and profits turn to loses, they go to the Fed and Congress and demand that they pick up the pieces at the taxpayer expense. What a racket!

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
super390 on July 6, 2008 - 6:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You call it deflation. Our working-class ancestors called it time to wave red flags and march for revolution. Let's be very careful about bringing back the kind of Darwinist economics that force people onto the streets.

Then again, don't be careful. I'm ready to march.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
john15 on July 6, 2008 - 7:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It doesn't seem to have a very good track record of forecasting recession on its own.

Any other indicators one should be looking at?

off the top of my head. usually decline in home sales, decline in home values and some other indicators like car sales. links are always changing though. here is a quick search of calculated risk.

Recession: CRE and PCE
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02/recession-cre-and-pce.html

Recession: Mild or Severe?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/recession-mild-or-severe.html

New Home Sales: Cliff Diving
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/new-home-sales-cliff-diving.html

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

232 comments on DrumBeat: July 6, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version