Washington DC, Promoting Neighborhoods at Expense of Drive In Commuters

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/05/AR200807...

Best Hopes for a Trend,

Alan

Any new developments (further declines) in imports from VenMex or stocks on the Gulf Coast lately? Haven't heard much about them... We also have Hurricane Bertha this morning..potential Cat 2 possible Cat 3 earliest storm since 2005... may hit the Carolinas, but more likely Bermuda or nothng at all at this point.

The most recent Pemex data, for May, showed an estimated net export decline of about 300,000 bpd, from 9/07 (from 1.4 mbpd to 1.1 mbpd, assuming flat consumption at 2.1 mbpd). At this volumetric rate, they would be approaching zero net oil exprots in late 2010.

Last week's data showed a resumption in Gulf Coast crude oil inventory declines, and a continued decline in refinery utilization rates. I suspect that the refineries on the Gulf Coast are bouncing along very close to their seasonal MOL's.

Thanks for that WT. Curiousity Satisfied.

Cantarell's output dropped by more than 540,000 barrels a day in May from a year earlier as the deposit lost pressure, making it more difficult and expensive to extract crude. Pemex has been injecting nitrogen for more than 10 years to stimulate production.

The development peaked at 65 percent of the company's 3.3 million barrels of daily
crude output in 2003. In May, it fell to 37 percent of total production.

The world's largest oil field is Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, followed by Burgan in Kuwait and Cantarell.

From Bloomberg today per Leanan.

From:

Cantarell, The Third Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying
Copyright 2004, 2007 G.R. Morton This can be freely distributed so long as no changes are made and no charges are made.

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/cantarell.htm

In 1995 it was producing 1 million barrels per day and the Mexican government decided to invest in that field to raise the production level. They built 26 new platforms, drilled lots of new wells and built the largest nitrogen extraction facility capable of injecting a billion cubic feet of nitrogen per day to maintain reservoir pressure. Doing this raised the oil production rate in 2001 to 2.2 million barrels per day. Today the field produces 2.1 million barrels.

To put this amount of production into perspectives, the largest field discovered in the US Gulf of Mexico will produce about 250,000 barrels per day. That field has about a billion barrels of reserves. If I were to find a field of that size, the company I worked for would probably make me president.

A couple of weeks ago I ran into this from the oil industry rags I read. It is a chilling thought since this is the 2nd biggest producer of oil on earth. Ghawar produces 4.5 million bbl/day, Cantarell, 2.2 million bbl/day, Da Qing and Burgun around 1 million per day.

"Supergiant Cantarell continues to be the mainstay of Mexican oil production, with 2.1 MMb/d of output in 2003 up from 1.9 MMb/d in 2002. However, Cantarell is expected to decline rapidly over the next few years, falling as far as 1 MM b/d by 2008. This has given particular urgency to Pemex's efforts to develop other fields and move into deepwater." For now, Pemex's best alternative project is the heavy-oil complex known as Ku-Maloob-Zaap, in Campeche Bay close to Cantarell. Output from this complex was 288,000 b/d in 2003 and is expected to rise to about 800,000 b/d by the end of the decade." David Shields, "Pemex Ready to Drill in Deepwater Perdido Area," Offshore, June 2004, p. 38

Pretty damn accurate.

Mexico's Cantarell Dec oil output hits 2007 low | Markets | Reuters
MEXICO CITY, Jan 26, 2008 (Reuters) - Crude oil output from Mexico's huge but aging Cantarell offshore field fell to 1.260 million barrels per day in December, ...

uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN2638783120080126

MEXICO CITY, June 26, 2007 (Reuters) -
May oil output slips at Mexico's Cantarell field
Jun 26, 2007 ... Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output, produced an average of 1.579 million barrels per day (May) versus 1.592 (April).

www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2636032620070626

Basically all of Cantarell is going to the US now.

mcgowan and westexas,

Can't varify any of the following....just the ramblings of expat service hands regarding production at Cantarell Fld: by pulling the wells to hard Pemex has coned the N2 sooner than models said they would. And faced with the choice of shuting in high N2 cut production to maintain the pressure bank and loosing oil rate even faster they are still lifting those wells and loosing pressure at an ever increasing rate. The proverbial rock/hard place. Can't be sure what the magnitude of the problem is but I'm sure there was some truth to the story between those sips of Shiner.

mcgowan....you don't happen to be in Jackson, Ms. are you?

mcgowan....you don't happen to be in Jackson, Ms. are you?

Was back in 74. Pretty nurses at St Dominic's. 8D

Lots of childhood friends moved there.

Grew up in and around Memphis.

I read this (from my calculator) as a -25.5% decline in Cantarell from May 2007 to May 2008 (2,119,000 b/day to 1,579,000 b/day).

It is my impression that Pemex kept a few fields back (KZT ? heavy oil near Cantarell) to counter-balance the loss of Cantarell, but those fields are now all on-line.

Pemex is earning more money than ever from exports, where is the pressure to produce more coming from I wonder.

Cut Cantarell back another -15% and keep pressure up and N2 cuts down. Still more export $ than in 2003, 2004, 2005 or 2006.

Alan

I guess you must be wondering how Pemex is ever going to be able to fulfil its contracts to Shell's Deer Park and Valero's Port Arthur refineries.

Pemex Cuts Crude Supply to Shell, Valero Refineries in Texas

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state- owned oil company, reduced the amount of crude oil it supplies to Texas refineries operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Valero Energy Corp. as falling production curbs exports.

The guaranteed amount of Mayan oil for a Deer Park, Texas, refinery jointly operated with Shell, Europe's biggest oil company, was cut by 15 percent, the Mexico City-based company said in a regulatory filing. Pemex also lowered oil supplies by 5.8 percent to the Port Arthur, Texas, refinery of Valero, the largest U.S. refiner.
[...]
The revised Shell accord guarantees 170,000 barrels a day of Maya from May until 2023, Pemex said in the filing. Pemex provided Deer Park 200,000 barrels a day since April 2001.
[...]
Pemex also reduced the supply to Valero's Port Arthur refinery to 177,000 barrels a day in May from 188,000 barrels under a previous contract.

Bloomberg

Wonder what the penalties are?

And BTW, I looked back to June 26 when the Cantarell production drop was released.

UPDATE 1-Mexico Cantarell oil field output falls again in May ...
MEXICO CITY, June 26 (Reuters) - Crude output from Mexico's struggling Cantarell oil field fell in May for the eighth month in a row to 1.038 million ...
www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2635951620080626

and remember that not a word was said anywhere about it then.

And remember several people on a couple of forums asking why crude
was moving up $5 per bbl.

Reasons given then:

The lower dollar had ramifications for commodities, sending gold to a one-month high. Oil closed up $5.09 at $139.64 a barrel as Libya threatened to cut output and Opec’s president said crude could hit $170 a barrel this summer.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa569976-43a4-11dd-842e-0000779fd2ac.html

My reading of the hurricane center stuff, is that it will remain a cat 1, which maybe hits Bermuda. It seems pretty unlikely to affect the mainland.

Drivers Feeling Shunned by D.C.

F 'em.