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101 comments on Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
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101 comments on Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
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Great work Wes. For me log normal plots tell the truth as best can be learned from the limitations. I know you understand the significance of a straight l/n plot but many don't understand the physical natural laws driving the reservoir dynamics. I'll bet more than a few are suspicious of such a straight and predictable projection. Once, on another thread, I tried to explain the accuracy of production forecasting when the decline curve reaches this point but I doubt I did much good.
Minor correction: all of the technical work was done by my frequent (and IMO, brilliant) coauthor, Khebab. I suspect that the logistic method is controversial because, in many cases, people simply don't like the resulting URR estimates, but my point is that I am not choosing an estimate for URR. The logistic (HL) method is predicting the URR. And while there is a degree of judgment involved in picking the parameters, I think that everyone would agree that Saudi Arabia started showing a linear progression in 1991.