Well, Hello Dolly! (Aw C'mon, Someone Had to Say It): Updated--Putting Dolly to Bed and Hoping She Causes Little Suffering

Update 10:30a EDT 22 JUN, From Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

This was a great event for us from a research standpoint, especially for improving our platform evacuation models. One of the hardest things to model is human behavior. We have the guidelines that are used to trigger evacuations programmed into our oil/gas model, but how those guidelines are implemented varies from storm to storm based on judgment, so we make modifications based on how folks have acted in the past. Most forecasts were showing 15-20% shut in for two days, but it looks like we got less than 5%. Given the size and intensity forecast of the storm, fewer platforms/rigs were evacuated than the models would have predicted, so we will tweak that part of the oil/gas model once we get the final evacuation/shut-in numbers.

We take track data from the forecast models, as well as the official track, as the inputs for our oil/gas model. Most of the hurricane forecast models over-estimated Dolly's intensity and strengthening, and were north of the actual track so far. This also contributed to the overestimate of evacuation based shut in production. It is important to realize that a small wobble has a bit impact out there. Only one model (GFDL) showed actual damage to the GOM infrastructure, and that was only for a single forecast (yesterday), so that wasn't too bad.

Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. Chuck's forecasts were a very important part of our Katrina and other coverage a few years back, and we thank him for his help and information.

Otherwise, let's put this one to bed and hope that as few people are affected by this storm as possible.


Dolly was forecasted by some to make landfall in various places along the Texas coast Wednesday PM. The Oil Drum is not going into red alert at this time; however, this is a similar enough track to the one taken by Rita in 2005 that Dolly should be paid attention to--and we hope our friends on the Texas coast are paying attention to this dynamic storm.

There's a lot of resources we accumulated from Rita under the fold, but we'd like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

A resource worth watching: Friend of TOD Chuck Watson has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. Chuck's forecasts were a very important part of our Katrina and other coverage a few years back, and we thank him for his help and information. (On current track, which the weather geeks at http://easternuswx.com (and I use the term "geek" in kinship...) and Jeff Masters at WU (updated 20:00 EDT) both seem to think there are chances that Dolly can shift north, but no one knows how much. Thus far, this looks to likely be a natural gas and infrastructure event, but also with a decent amount of oil shut-in short-term. However, that can change, especially if Dolly slows down, she's over some hot water.)

Also, here's the EIA's Texas Resources page. It will also likely come in handy.

More under the fold. This may end up being a non-event, however, it is better to be prepared than not.

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here's another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Here's a list of refining capacity and percentages of overall capacity by area inside the region. (thanks Jaymax) We're talking about 20% of US refining capacity folks.

Here's a listing of all oil related industry (refining, etc) in Texas.

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here's a beautiful flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps, emphasizing Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here's what were the latest MMS shut in numbers from Rita pre-landfall.

And Here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)