just to reemphasize :

"Our lifestyle is totally dependent on cheap oil."

the addiction term clinically means;

DEPENDENT.

& i don't think it's addicted to oil; but our systems are dependent[addicted to] on 'cheap' oil.

we are just getting the slack[time lag] out of many parts of our system.

Ron,

I think one advantage you, Airdale and I have as "oldsters", is that we have experienced life when energy use, and society in general, were different. Further, we have had contact with family members going back into the 1800s and what their lives were like. Younger people cannot envision the life we actually lived without mounds of "stuff"...and energy.

We also have the advantage of having acquired what we need to survive. I look at my life in the boondocks and know there is no way in hell that I could pull it off where I under the pressure of having to do it "right now" in order to survive. By this I mean not only the physical things but also the psychological adaptation necessary to live a different kind of life.

Todd

Ron,

Just curious as to what you think the difference is between Mexico and Saudi Arabia, since both regions are highly dependent on one large field and since both countries are showing rising water cuts (or more accurately thinning oil columns) in key parts of their big fields, and since both countries have shown monthly increases in production,e.g., last month in Mexico.

Does last month's increase in production in Mexico mean that Pemex has been voluntarily reducing their production because of market conditions, or does it mean that post-peak regions can show both increasing and decreasing production at different time periods, but on an annual basis they don't match their final peak rate?

Just curious.

No, we are not dependent on cheap oil, we are dependent on cheap oil that gets cheaper and cheaper as time goes by - comparing 2000 to 1970 each barrel of oil in 2000 produced around twice the GDP, (or the price of the oil halved).

The cheaper and cheaper bit is the important bit as it allows more and more to be afforded/consumed - AKA economic growth!

For the last nine years in the absence of adequate alternatives the net-export price of the marginal barrel of oil has not been getting cheaper and cheaper, the pace of overall world economic growth (and things like banking which depend upon economic growth for success) must slow as a consequence!

In a post peak-oil world in order to continue BAU world economic growth any alternates to oil (and FF in general) will have to be competitive in unsubsidised price and become cheaper as a proportion of income over time - what can we use?

Are there absolutely no plans whatsoever to massively increase production of the huge ultra heavy oil bitumen resources in Venezuela? Is it a fresh water shortage problem that would make it impossible to even increase it to 1 mbpd in the foreseeable future?

Ron, your statement frames the problem perfectly, and this is EXACTLY why the term "addiction" is flawed, trivial, stupid and banal.

This is no mere addiction. Dependency and addiction are different, categorically. In fact, I'd wager addiction is a cultural myth, the mythical golden goose that has hatched a thousand recovery groups.

There. Is. No. "Recovery." From. Peak Oil.

Great post Ron. "Our lifestyle is totally dependent on cheap oil."

That one line says it all. People can crunch the numbers ad infinitum, but the truth of that one statement is the viewpoint from oil's peak plateau. We've created a world dependent on cheap energy (oil). Transportation on all levels is most dependent on it.

However, whereas I was completely pessimistic a while ago, my sense now is that we still have enough time to make the transition to alternative energy systems, with an emphasis on small passenger electric vehicles. If we develop a modern electrical grid that is more efficient, allowing for connection from wind and solar, the US can act as an example to other countries to greatly reduce their dependence on oil. We can also use natural gas as a competing subsitute for diesel in commercial trucks.

If we can successfully make this transition, then other countries will follow suit and worldwide dependence on oil will be reduced enough to extend the years oil will remain abundant, until some day oil will not stand as such a crucial foundation to our lives.

Now this could very well mean a temporary lowering of standard of living. Maybe we won't thunder down the road in giant 4WD black internal combustion monster, but instead whine down the road in a tiny Chevy Volt. Maybe we won't get all the imported products we once took for granted while this transition takes place. But it sure beats capitulation to the socially depraved micro townships depicted in Kunstler's books.

I urge all peak oilers to optimistically back alternative energy production.

So the NMRA acknowledges that Crude production in Ausralia peaked... some time ago (2000), and further acknowledge that our lifestyles are totally dependent on cheap Oil. Well, bully for them. They seem to be exhibiting Cognitive Dissonance, as they (and their fellow-traveller organisations such as the RACQ and RACV) are constantly calling for more money to be spent on building new roads/upgrading old ones.

Our motoring organisations came into being to campaign for safer roads. Then they campaigned for more roads. Then they campaigned for more, safer roads.
By 'safer', one can only assume 'safer at high speeds'. Last weekend I was in a car driving down The Range from my girlfriends 'farm', on one of the 'most dangerous roads in Queensland'. At the signed speed limit, it is not dangerous. If it rains, slow down a bit. The biggest danger to drivers is boredom, alternating with gawping out the side windows at the scenery. Yet the RACQ is constantly demanding more money to 'fix' this highway. Perhaps the RACQ could campaign for money to rebuild the abandoned railway line that used to run up the Range instead?)

Five kilometres from here, Main Roads is busilly ripping up several kilometres of National Highway, and adding extra lanes in each direction. I shudder to think what the final cost will be. And more locally, Main Roads recently spent the better part of Au$10-20 million to achieve what could have been achieved by simply painting new lines on the existing road.

Instead of funding a massive expansion in MT/PT, the Queensland Government subsidises Petrol/Diesel to the tune of 8c/L, adding up to $500 million a year! That's funding for about 50 kilometres of 25kVA electrified Heavy Rail, dissapearing into thin air!

Insanity.