Please define "packed" with cars. What percentage of all trips taken by private car counts as "packed"?

I mean, Copenhagen and Amsterdam manage 33-40% of all trips taken being by private car, compared to 80-90% for Aussie and US cities. Now, maybe you'd call 33-40% of all trips "packed"; but you must agree that this is less "packed" than Melbourne or Detroit.

If we could go from 80-90% to to 33-40%, we'd use only one-third to one-half the fuel for private transport we now do. Which is just what I said earlier, that individuals and cities as a whole could without a great deal of trouble halve their fuel use.

Now, I think we can and will have to get below that level in the long run - the next few decades. But it'd be a bloody good start. If such efficiencies were carried out across the economy we could be self-sufficient in oil, close down half our coal-fired stations, save billions on new highways, halve our total carbon emissions, and so on.

If you accept that most people have a need for a car, beyond what can be provided even by the best mass-transit,

No, I don't accept it, because it's not true. Most Aussies and Americans have the desire for a car, and are accustomed to having and using one, but considerably fewer need a car.

Of course, when you tell me that you need to travel 1km to the shops by car, we could be using different definitions of the words "need" and "necessary". I suggest we use the words as commonly understood, as expressed by the dictionary.

necessary, noun

# absolutely essential
# unavoidably determined by prior circumstances; "the necessary consequences of one's actions"
# necessity: anything indispensable; "food and shelter are necessities of life"; "the essentials of the good life"; "allow farmers to buy their requirements under favorable conditions"; "a place where the requisites of water fuel and fodder can be obtained"

As the figures show, only about one-third of trips are unavoidable (assuming utterly unwalkable and unbikable neighbourhoods, and zero public transport - a wrong assumption, but let's be generous to the "needy"); about two-thirds of all trips taken by car are discretionary or could be rolled together with other trips. In my "immodest proposal" article I suggested that everyone keep a logbook in their car and for a month write down every trip and for what purpose it was taken, and after that month sit down and have a look to see if the trip was necessary, could have been bundled with another, or taken by foot, cycle or public transport without great inconvenience. I don't know of anyone having actually accepted the challenge, though.

Perhaps they were worried at what results they might get.

There's a difference between what's necessary and what we're accustomed to. You're accustomed to driving 1km to the shops; but if your car broke down, you would presumably not go without food because the journey is impossible to take by other means. It's simply that you're accustomed to doing this.

I understand. For my part, I only got my driver's license recently, so that whenever I have to travel somewhere I get out the map and the train and bus timetables. And occasionally my woman says to me, "it'd be easier to take the car, you know." And I say, "oh... I hadn't thought of that." It simply hadn't occurred to me that the car was an option, because I'm accustomed to walking and public transport. Likewise, long-term car drivers, it simply doesn't occur to them to walk or use public transport, because they're accustomed to driving.

Custom thus becomes a "need". When people's customs in travel, in diet and lifestyle are challenged, they often assert "need", insisting that things must be this way. But in fact there are a zillion ways to live your life, and if you just get your caca together you can change the way you do things.

You cannot really expect the government to pass radical laws about carbon taxes or trades and invest billions in public transport and renewable energy if you will not even make the enormous, painful and stressful effort to walk 1km to the shops.

If Australia or NZ had to suddenly manage with 50% petrol( which could easily happen), we could manage and adjust fairly easily by reducing that 60-70% of non-essential driving. If we started on a massive ramp up of mass-transit it would take decades to approach was London or Paris has now, and even then would expect to still have 30-40% of travel by car ( as occurs in cities with good mass-transit), and still have the roads packed with cars( ie traffic jams as occurs in London and Paris). Thus our economy would still depend upon a substantial use of private motor vehicles, because we cannot total re-build a city in one generation. With almost no additional cost, most cars in one generation could be getting twice the fuel economy by legislating vehicle fuel efficiency, and with the expected technical improvements and a modest cost, could have a fleet getting x4 better fuel economy or be substantially BEV and PHEV in one generation. That could solve out oil shortage problems permanently, and allow us to focus on replacing coal and other FF with renewable energy.
I think most people in developed countries will accept a reduction in vehicle use in an emergency, and support mass-transit where practical, and even abolition of cars from CBD, but would not accept either a abolition of vehicle ownership or being forced to relocate from suburbia to a down-town high-rise. Only a dictatorial states have been successful in replacing private transport 100% with mass-transit. If you can recognize this is the reality, then the highest priority for resources should be going towards solving the use of oil by ICE vehicles. Walking or biking short distances is a fringe activity thats not going to make a substantial difference to our economies oil dependence, look at Canberra.

I don't get it Neil, you want the government to legislate away the ICE but not have any regard to the planning and development regimes which have shaped and beeen shaped by the mass ownership of cars in the last 50 years!

There is a lot to be said about letting markets operate without governments messing it up. The price of oil is doing its job in alerting the market to a problem.

If cars with ICE's become too expensive to keep on the road then they must be replaced by something else and the range of options is from walking to your BEVS and PHEVS.

Walking is a proven and reliable mode of transport that existed long before the wheel, so I think we can safely count that as deliverable. BEVS and PHEVS?...not so much. I'm going to reorganise my life around living much more locally, and I'll hang on to my ICE car for as long as possible, driving it as infrequently as I possibly can. There is an old bloke in my town who is filthy rich, but he still drives the same XA Ford Falcon that he bought new from the showroom in 1972. If he can get 36 years from an XA then I reckon I could get at least 20 from VZ Commodore thats bought and paid for. I'm simply not going to buy an electric car with dubious battery technolgy and non-existent savings when comparing total cost of ownership.

If there is an energy crisis and people have totightne their belts, many of them will do the same sums and decide that an EV is just going to be an expensive novelty that won't replace the ICE car. The market will speak and the manufacturers will respond by not making them. Then what?

Hi Termoil,
You are distorting what I said, how is legislation to improve vehicle efficiency x2 "legislating away the ICE"?.
Walking was the only method of travel in the European middle ages, so villages were generally spaced 3 miles apart, because a 6 mile round trip was considered about as far as most people would be prepared to travel. Now some people walked across Europe, but they were the exception.
Our cities cannot function as they exist now or could exist in the next 25 years without some form of individual transport and some mass-transport. Both are needed. At best we may be able to go half-way to having a city-wide Metro in 25 years. So we will need at least 50% of the VMT that we have today, based on cities in Europe with much better mass-transit than is likely to be build in Australia or NZ, and higher population densities.
If you think we will have 50% of todays oil supply available in 25 years you are very optimistic.

If you want to keep a Commodore parked for the next 20 years, that's your choice. I sold my 1989 model Commodore a few years ago for scrap, because I couldn't afford a vehicle using 14L/100Km, and replaced it with a 6L/100 Km vehicle. If you think petrol is going to be 50cents/L, I made a poor decision, but if its going to be >$2/L it was a good decision.

The least painful solution for a post peak-oil world will be to replace ICE vehicle transport with electric. I doubt that there is going to be much choice, it will be electric vehicles, electric trains/trams, bicycles or walking. Then again, we could go back to good old reliable wood and coal burning steam cars or horse drawn transport! I wonder how I will manage using my Lap-top on unreliable Li batteries?

Neil,
The steam driven car was never that popular and I think it is a useful analogy for the electric car. It couldn't compete with the horse for either range or versatility and therefore never really achieved the mass market it needed in order to scale up production and bring down costs. The electric car may be doomed to the same fate. The old technolgy may simply be too dominant to defeat and people may adapt to travelling a lot less, reorganising on a scale that is adapted to the available fuel supply or simply abandoning the living arrangements that require them to be dependent on personal mobility.

I like you reference to European villages. In some way we are going to have to re-create our villages even if they exist within a larger city. I like to concentrate on what can be achieved rather than wishing and hoping for a techno fix (electric car) that has so far proven illusive.