If oil companies are asked to pay billions up front in order to drill, with a ten year wait for a return on investment, they are not likely to bother drilling at all.

The IOCs are running out of new places to drill, especially due to the dominance of the state owned oil companies. I am sure we can find a price point where they are willing to pay to play. Otherwise, they can start planning to go out of business. Another alternative would be to nationalize them.