313 comments on DrumBeat: July 25, 2008
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313 comments on DrumBeat: July 25, 2008
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Google, who we all know and love, announced an investment in Aptera yesterday....
Driving plug-in technology with investments of $2.75 million
Some youtube vids of the vehicle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XArAnuK3cW4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Um0baFueM&feature=related
Data, this is a neat little summer vehicle. Not wanting to quibble on the design I think those outlier front wheels would be a real vulnerability in the real world. In any event, these efforts are still part of the effort to maintain or commutting as usual life style. I am more excited by their investment in the battery technology and certainly hope tha makes progress. It would be great to see more investment in electrified farm tractors.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufLpGGf7TWs
and this is an interesting read:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/the_case_for_the_electric_tractor
But thanks for the post. The car is a very interesting bit of technology.
I don't know about you, but the real world I'm going to be living in shortly is going to have a lot less (and smaller) cars on the road - and it won't be by choice either.
Take for example Fords moves to smaller vehicles. It's already started re-tooling it's facilities. Cuts in non-discressional driving, car sharing, move to public transport, freight to rail etc.. etc.. All these things are going to REDUCE the amount of traffic on the raods by necessity due to high fuel costs.
Therefore these vehicle will become more practical as time progresses. There is one caveat. This is all assuming the roads are in good enough condition to handle personal vehicles without resorting to 8in suspension!!
Marco.
I believe that is assuming a lot. I’ve noticed that roads, especially the two lane county blacktops have been getting much worse. In large urban areas there are streets that are almost impassable from large potholes after the winter freeze/thaw/salting cycles. With less vehicles, less taxes to repair. County budgets are stressed as it is to maintain roads. I’d lean toward a modified dune buggy type of vehicle myself, one that could go down gravel roads with a minimum of discomfort or loss of handling.
I see the same as you. There is the other side to the coin and that is less traffic and lighter vehicles will do much less damage to the road.
If you study the dynamics of sprung masses (a highly exciting topic I got to do (almost fail) in 2nd year engineering!!) - reudcing mass greatly reduces rebound forces and road damage.
Marco.
I foresee a boom in the shock-absorber business.
I am also anticipating rougher roads. That's one of the reasons for my procurement of a dual-purpose motorcycle. Offroad capabilities, but street legal, and gets fantastic gas mileage. If I can run through mud pits, go over felled trees, over large rocks and across large holes in dirt trails, I'm pretty sure I can handle a few potholes. ;)
~Durandal(http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
Bruce: I saw a modified dune buggy sort of thing at the Plug-in 2008 Conference in San Jose two days ago that looked really, really sweet. All-electric (lead acid) 4WD, ~50 mile range (on the flat) on a charge, incredibly beefy steel construction, rear and roof cargo racks, winch on the front, great suspension, big knobby tires, the works. This ain't no dressed-up golf cart. Runs about $9K though, made out of Mississippi. www.badboybuggies.com The trade show rep said they have about 10,000 of them in the field so far. Might be just the thing for the badly maintained roads of the future!
One way to get a fix on the underlying economic logic for vehicles such as the Aptera is look at what's happening with golf carts.
Golf carts are incredibly inferior to regular vehicles in almost every way.
Yet.....
(with a quick search on news.google.com)
Here's a fraction of recent stories:
Golf carts may take to the streets
Pinehurst allows carts on village streets
Golf carts switch course from green to road
Rising fuel costs drive move to economical but unconventional transport
Gas prices fueling golf cart use, sales
Golf Carts Prove Good Alternative in Certain Neighborhoods
Vincennes considers making golf carts legal streets
Golf carts driven on city streets
The Aptera, on the other hand, can do 85 miles per hour. There are youtube videos of it on highways alongside 18-wheeler transport trucks. At one point they draft behind one! :-)
You are not going to see electric tractors working our USA farms.
If diesel fuel becomes too expensive or unavailable, then farmers will return to farming similar to what they did before oil. They will grow their own fuel. No, they will NOT go back to horses as growing the oats and hay to feed them took about 1/3 of their agricultural land. By growing oil seed crops on about 1/10 of their land they can produce the biodiesel fuel to continue to power their diesel tractors.
This will precipitate a result similar to Jeffry Brows ELM for oil. Farmers will be consuming more of their crops themselves and therefore they will have less to "export" off the farm.
As we head down the back slope of Hubert's Peak and farmers start growing their own fuel (for their tractors, home heating, electric power?, crop drying, barn heating, etc...), I will predict that "exports" of food off the farms will drop by 1/3 to 1/2 and food prices will raise very dramatically. We might be able to feed maybe 200 million citizens out of a population of 300-450 million. Do you think we can add "grave digger" the the list of very secure jobs?
This is joke, right? :-)
If not, may I offer a rebuttal in outline?
Calculate the amount of diesel used by farmers as a fraction of total crude consumption. It is tiny. Maybe in the 1% range. Note that crop prices have been rising handsomely along with oil prices.
BTW, the land in the US currently devoted to biofuels is already close to enough to cover agricultural usage.
(I'll work the numbers later if necessary)
I agree ..... farmers will NOT grow internal combustion engine fuel , if they have to use that fuel to do it.
"farmers will NOT grow internal combustion engine fuel, if they have to use that fuel to do it."
I think farmers don't think in absolutes like the above. They will discuss. Ask the county Ag Ex agent to run the numbers. Run the numbers themselves. Reject the idea if if doesn't make sense, but try it if it does. At risk of contradicting may own assertion. Farmers will absolutely not wing it based on something they read on the internet or heard on CNBC.
yabut. are you including the diesel used in transporting stuff to the farm and stuff from the farm ?
grain trucks are a major hazard, they always seem to be in a big, real big, hurry. i dont know why. some of their trucks are worn out otr trucks, the safety of which may be in doubt. imo, they are a menace.
livestock haulers are similar, except they have fancier trucks. i dont know why, but they always like to have lots of marker lights.
The ELM model applied to farming is very interesting - and frightening.
I have a question about using biofuels for farming.
When horses were used to power farming, the nutrients containing in their food was returned to the soil via manure. Producing their food did not deplete the land.
Burning biofuels in an ICE doesn't return any nutrients to the soil, AFICT. So, wouldn't the use of biofuels increase soil depletion rates?
Ahh but the oil is mostly C and H.
The plant matter COULD be returned to the soil in the 'local farmer makes local fuel' model VS the other models of bio fuel
I can see electric tractors in 20 years. DC motors are great for low rpm/ high torque applications. That's why diesel locomotives run a electrical generator instead of direct driving the wheels. The tractor could even partially recharge as it worked from PV solar.
Wouldn't a decent solution for tractors (non fossil fuel) be hydrogen internal combustion? (H2 ICE)
The H2 ICE is simple (unlike fuel cells) and already thoroughly usable once you secure your source of hydrogen. But that's a practical rather than technological problem since they can produce H2 for under $4.00 per kg now from renewable sources.
For some time H2 ICE vehicles have offered decent performance.
http://avt.inl.gov/hydrogen.shtml
But gas was too cheap for them to be taken seriously as a mass market item, especially with little hydrogen infrastructure.
Wouldn't a decent solution for tractors (non fossil fuel) be hydrogen internal combustion? (H2 ICE)"
It depends a lot on where the H2 comes from. If from NG, I doubt H2ICE makes much sense. If from biomass, maybe the conversion will have to be done locally to avoid transportation cost (more fuel spent on process). There are many suggestions for sources of H2. Some appear to be implementable on small scale, others only make sense at a nuclear power plant. I think the Hydrogen Economy presupposes that there will be multiple source of H2 in competition, all getting paid the cost of the most expensive process. (as required by economics) Again, I think farmers will run the numbers and each will choose what works for him/her.
In the context of picking themselves up and trying to survive in a collapsing economy, I think they gravitate towards self-supply.
Wouldn't a decent solution for tractors (non fossil fuel) be hydrogen internal combustion? (H2 ICE)"
Nope. H2 doesn't store well and making H2 is rather 'lossy'. Then you will react that H2 to make H2O in a heat engine that is 30% efficient - so unless you have more energy than you know what to do with, it is a bad plan.
The problems with H2 storage is such that the fuel cell people who want to use H2 in fuel cells have given up.
(Source - the watt podcast - talking about the fuel cell trade group)
Can you provide a link? That seems ridiculous.
For small vehicles, hydrogen is losing to EVs. But note that losing to another technology doesn't mean a technology can't work. It means it can't compete head to head. H2 ICE vehicles have existed for a while and have been in commercial use for a couple of years. If battery tech for EVs were to hit a snag, H2 ICE would be brought forward.
And regarding H2 fuel cells, they are very much in play for the future, especially in applications quite different from personal vehicles.
Can you provide a link?
Sure, because why should anyone believe me.
http://thewatt.com/node/78
Dr. Ulf Bossel who is the organizer of the European Fuel Cell Forum in Lucerne - the below is from him.
And regarding H2 fuel cells, they are very much in play for the future,
Your turn. Prove this. Show your references.
Just go to news.google.com and search on hydrogen fuel cell.
You'll have 100's of references.
And what part of The people who are running the fuel cell conferences are not willing to waste time talking about straight up H2 fuel cells until other issues not related to the actual H2 fuel cells themselves is not worthy of consideration?
Just go to news.google.com and search on hydrogen fuel cell.
You'll have 100's of references.
So? I can read 100's of reference articles calling slavery OK. Or 100's of articles saying there is no Peak Oil. Or 100's upon 100's claiming my God is right and whatever God you are following shows you are wack and doomed. 100's of 'references' to bullshit doesn't make the bullshit less bull-shitty.
You made a claim that H2 fuel cells are viable. So prove it. Show how Dr. Ulf Bossel's concerns are wrong. For extra credit - debunk Don Lancaster
http://www.tinaja.com/h2gas01.asp
(Me, I'm off to edit my profile yet again to add how hydrogen is bunk. Not as bunk-y as SPS or SSP (space based power) but still bunk.)
i would add: why bother with hydrogen at all? as bad as it is, bio-diesel is pretty close to vegetable oil, which has been under continuous production by plants for billions of years. there has been no free hydrogen on this planet, ever.
water is the exhaust of a hydrogen engine. converting water to hydrogen is exactly the same proposition as converting car exhaust into gasoline. both are fundamentally energy losers, for the same reason.
i sinned by mentioning bio-diesel so i'd like to finish with: there is no way for us to continue industrial society on this scale. bio-diesel won't fix this, and nothing else will, either. we will scale down, whether we want to or not.
i would add: why bother with hydrogen at all? as bad as it is, bio-diesel is pretty close to vegetable oil
I don't care for the Alcohol answer - but it DOES store well - better than oil, rock or veggie.
Oils and Alcohol, in theory, are useable straight up in fuel cells. Both are 'Hydrogen can be reacted and energy released' storage methods.
i sinned by mentioning bio-diesel so i'd like to finish with: there is no way for us to continue industrial society on this scale.
(What sin? It is storable, do-able with machine tools/metal working, and would use less land than using animal power to work the land.)
Hence PowerDown. What we have, and what we are used to is gonna come to an end. We can step away, or we can fight (and still end up stepping away)
(We've had beam power from space and now H2. What's next as the hopeful topic to be brought up - that Space Aliens are real like Edgar Mitchell says and when the aliens share their power generation tech we are all saved? http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/69539)
yes, the bio-diesel to power tractors would use less land than growing food for horses and oxen.
but, of course, bio-diesel alone can't work a field. it needs a tractor, which is made of steel, which is explored for, mined, smelted, and manufactured with fossil fuel.
while it may be possible to make tractors without fossil fuel, such a thing has never occurred in the history of the universe, so i would require proof before blindly accepting its certainty.
in the timespan of the next few hundred years, yes of course there will be plenty of steel for tractors, and yes of course bio-diesel will be as good as any other fuel.
but in the timespan of the next few thousand years, we can't assume steel at all. all we've produced today will have rusted away forever.
while it may be possible to make tractors without fossil fuel, such a thing has never occurred in the history of the universe, so i would require proof before blindly accepting its certainty.
I'm willing to be optimistic enough that electric power from hydro will be important enough to 'save' and from such you can power electric heaters to drive the CO2 from limestone to make concrete and drive the steel mini-mills.
but in the timespan of the next few thousand years
Steel is too gosh darn useful to man. It won't go away unless there is such wholesale destruction of man that humans are living hand to mouth and burn the books. Why would a copy of a low acid paper book on laplase transforms or the magnetoresitive properties of motor laminations be useful if you need a fire?
http://www.alternet.org/workplace/91927/
No, steel rusts at a rate determined by nature, regardless of what man wants. Within a few thousand years, all of today's steel will have completely rusted.
Before fossil fuel, steel was supremely precious military high-tech. After fossil fuel, it will likely return to this role.
Iceland smelts specialty steel (silicon steel for electrical applications) with renewable electrical power. I believe that Sweden uses the same process for surgical steel.
Alan
I've visited a Hydrogen research project in Maine which has been running for 2 years. On our tour, I was not told that they've had these renouned storage problems. The tanks and lines do have to undergo testing, and I don't know the lifespan expectancies, but we do have industries dealing with hydrogen already, it's not fusion.
It's generating H2 from Solar PV, and using Fuel Cells as backup power for some of the foundation's buildings. (They also have an early installation this year of a PV/Hydronic Heating Hybrid that preheats water while it keeps the PV cool and running optimal watts.. sorry, no linky.)
"The Chewonki Renewable Hydrogen Project is a demonstration project that will help bring Maine and the world closer to a healthy, sustainable environment..."
http://www.chewonkih2.org/
here's their tech links page, while much of it is Password protected..
http://www.chewonkih2.org/public/tech.shtml
some other H2 Projects they point to..
http://www.chewonkih2.org/public/others.shtml
Bob
I've visited a Hydrogen research project in Maine which has been running for 2 years. On our tour, I was not told that they've had these renouned storage problems.
So you were expecting that people who are getting research money are going to mention negatives?
I'm going to ignore the effects of what would be a big increase in H2 in the air - because like when chloroflorocarbons where introduced - no one really knows. People I'm sure have theories and long term O3 - H2 reactions and H2 escaping the biosphere might just be an issue.
I'll stick to what others say about storage.
http://www.navc.org/storage.html
(Loosing 1% of your stored energy a day strikes ME as an issue. If you are selling H2, sounds like a good business to be in)
Hygrogen Metal embrittlement via NASA
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:RoXJC8K6xEYJ:ntrs.nasa.gov/search.j...
http://www.azom.com/news.asp?newsID=12695
As many farmers have possible sources of methane available already, either from manure or from left over organic matter, bio methane powered tractors are much more likely than H2 powered tractors.
Lots of news on the Aptera these days. This out today...
Aptera Raises More Than $24M in Series C Round
Funds will be used for a new manufacturing facility in Vista, California.
Some vehicle details:
Google is also investing in space tourism, but I don't expect to be taking a ship to the Moon in my lifetime. :)
As with the air car, the hydrogen car, the plug-in electric car, and the personal jetpack, I'll believe in it when I see it for sale in the stores. Until then, it is just more geek vapourware.
But if we wait that long before accepting that a technology is inevitable, we would have no forecasting ability about future tech.
As much as we are energy, we are also technology and it saturates our lives. So forecasting technology is a huge part of seeing what we will be in future.
In fact, if we don't figure out what tech will be available, it's arguable we don't know what our daily lives will be like.
RE this vehicle in particular.....
It doesn't strike me as being rocket science. To re-quote a newstory I quoted upthread:
With a coefficient of drag one-third of that of a subcompact car and less than half the weight....
That's the key there. Change the shape to reduce drag and cut the weight in half.
A little smaller and lose a wheel and you could call it a motorcycle.
Indeed.
According to the company website it is classed as a motorcycle in California for most purposes, though you don't need a motorcycle license to drive it. If I recall correctly that's because it has 3 wheels and is enclosed.
Make it a little smaller, lighter, add pedals and put it on rails :)
Jet pack unveiled by New Zealand inventor ;)