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328 comments on DrumBeat: July 28, 2008

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 10:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Subsidies are a remarkably efficient way to boost consumption, but what is interesting is how oblivious, until recently at least, most of the media have been to rising consumption in exporting countries. A What If scenario for Saudi Arabia, assuming a flat production rate of 11 mbpd and extrapolating their consumption at +5.7%/year (the latest EIA data show a +7.2%/year rate of increase):

However, once an exporting region starts showing lower production, recent case histories suggest that the rate of change in consumption only changes the slope of the net export decline rate, e.g., the UK went to zero net oil exports in seven years with a minimal increase in consumption of +0.2%/year.

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noutram on July 28, 2008 - 11:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

...The whole Middle East will 'go nuclear' b4 those lines cross -the only variable being the speed of the energy released...

Nick.

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jonathan.s.callahan on July 28, 2008 - 11:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

To get a sense of the historical rise in consumption in developing nations you should review the graphs of the Energy Export Databrowser. Those producing nations that subsidize oil consumption have shown dramatic increases in consumption over the last couple of decades. (The Export Land Model in action!) Check out the plots for:

  • Indonesia
  • Egypt
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico

Here is Indonesia:

Then take a look at the producing nations of the Persian Gulf. The oil consumption is up but their consumption of natural gas is WAAYYY!!! up.

The case of the UK is an object lesson in how quickly resources that are fully developed can decline. If you look at the graph for UK Oil Exports/Imports in units of constant dollars, you'll see that they made a grave mistake in exporting largely during periods of cheap oil and returning to imports during the current period of high prices. (A mistake reminiscent of the Bank of England's selling off the national gold reserve during (and contributing to) the lowest inflation-adjusted prices of the century.)

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 11:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I don't know if you saw this a couple of days ago, but here is a link to a presentation I gave at Sandia Labs on our net export work:

http://mediasiteson.sandia.gov/Mediasite/Viewer/?peid=db3a600e-e93f-43ae...

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jonathan.s.callahan on July 28, 2008 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nice presentation and thanks for passing it on. Are all of the forecasts based on HL analysis?

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes. Khebab basically did a low case, middle case and high case for production declines, using HL, and he used a Monte Carlo analysis for future consumption, again generating low case, middle case and high case scenarios. He then generated three predicted net export curves showing worst case, middle case and best case for net oil exports approaching zero.

If we sum the top five together, volumetrically they are currently on track to approach zero net oil exports around 2031, which is the middle case scenario in the quantitative analysis.

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Undertow on July 28, 2008 - 1:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WARNING!!!!!

If you use Firefox 3 do not under any circumstance download the recommended plugin as it is not compatible (it was designed for firefox 2) and will almost certainly break things. I'm still manually undoing the mess it made. At one point I had to pull the plug on the machine as an infinite number of windows tried to pop up with unintelligble (to anyone other than the programmer) error messages.

Answer Yes to continue without plugin with Firefox 3(there actually is a plugin handling this already). That should work and you should see the synchronised slideshow in another frame. If not use IE :-(

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 1:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks for the info. There have been some scattered reports of problems.

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Undertow on July 28, 2008 - 2:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It seems to be the old windows "dll hell" problem where you end up with multiple different versions of code libraries installed in multiple locations depending on what you have previously installed. Firefox 3 only came out recently and not every website/plugin/addon is fully compatible yet - some reviewers have suggested Mozilla jumped the gun with this release (I've had far more annoyances with this upgrade than any previous Firefox upgrade).

[Edit: On a technical note I think it's the detection/installation program that makes a mistake. WMP11/Firefox 3 users should already have a suitable np-mswmp.dll - your mileage may vary :-)]

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paulah on July 28, 2008 - 8:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm running Firefox 3 and did not download the plug-in. I can see the slides, but see no video. Is there a way this can be saved in some other format? Much appreciated, if possible to convert it to another format.

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Undertow on July 28, 2008 - 8:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If you're not using Windows Media Player 11 then upgrading to that should work.

Howver here's a direct URL for the video stream which should work for everyone. This should fire up in external windows media player no matter what you are running. Should work on other operating systems too if you are having problems.

http://tinyurl.com/5uum5e

I had to use tinyurl because the posting software won't let me post the full url as a link (it converts mms to http which doesn't work)

The actual address of the video to which the tinyurl points is

mms://as04snlnto.son.sandia.gov/mediasite/44148de6-159c-468f-b4ac-0b2490591d15.wmv?eventid=1413e0cc-9118-d1fb-d1f8-829bbd7759b7mediaid=e37eb9f2-13d3-4c45-960a-e7392073bca6

with the wrapping removed for the technically inclined.

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paulah on July 28, 2008 - 8:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That rating system doesn't seem to be working for me, but thanks again. It's wonderful.

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Undertow on July 29, 2008 - 10:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here's a zip file (only 2.2MB) http://www.savefile.com/files/1695621 containg all the slides plus their starting time index (in file texas.txt). The video is 350MB long as provided so I haven't uploaded that but you can download it directly with (for example) mplayer using the command:

C:\mp2\mplayer>mplayer -dumpstream -dumpfile texas.wmv mms://as04snlnto.son.sandia.gov/mediasite/44148de6-159c-468f-b4ac-0b2490591d15.wmv

Using this combination you'll get the video and slides stored locally should anyone wish.

Also I think it may be the case that if you are running a version of Windows Media Player prior to V11 with Firefox 3 it may be ok to download a recommended plugin - however I haven't tested this as I'm running WMP V11.

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Fractional_Flow on July 28, 2008 - 12:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeffrey-

That was excellent.

FF

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 1:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It took me a while to steel myself to actually watch the presentation, but I do think it was the best one I have given. It might have had something to do with the audience. It was a group--at Sandia Labs with video links to two other national labs--that I didn't want to disappoint in any way (I've also had lots of practice lately).

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phreephallin on July 28, 2008 - 2:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Excellent job. I've read all of these arguments from you before in snippets here and there, but to see the entire presentation is quite impressive. There were good questions from the audience also.

One fellow asked about the effect of acts of terrorism on export rates. I think Mr. Vail's observations are that as energy prices become more expensive, the payback for energy saboteurs increases. Increased attacks on energy sources further drive higher prices leading to an even greater ROI for sabotage. This feedback loop is one that I'm afraid will play a greater role in driving energy costs.

About the tax increase on energy and reduction of the payroll tax, Gore has the killer bumper sticker line: "We should be taxed for what we burn, not for what we earn."

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Dennis Brumm on July 28, 2008 - 5:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks very much for making it available; I sent it to a number of people who otherwise might not have seen it (that don't read here).

I'm running XP, Firefox 3, didn't have a message to download and it seemed to work fine. I really liked the video and the slides working together in tandem vs. the usual power point without the full explanations that the presentation offers.

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Datamunger on July 28, 2008 - 2:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'll second that (or third or fourth it). Great to see you getting the message out.

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totoneila on July 29, 2008 - 5:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, Great Presentation-->Big Kudos to Westexas!!!

Go,go,go Alan Drake! We really need to start building RRs & TODevelopment ASAP!

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Joe Average on July 28, 2008 - 12:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Good Morning from Melbourne, Australia.

It WAS 1am. Wife had been snoring, dog growling at a possum outside. Earplugs not working. Brain refuses to shutdown. Now it's 2.30am. Wife's quiet, dog's asleep... But why on earth did I start your one hour presentation?!

I guess the main question I keep asking myself, if your models are to be believed (as a PO newbie with an average IQ, I struggle a bit with the black dots more or less trending up, followed by a nose-diving blue line - I'm sure many of my fellow Average Joes and Janes would also), is how long do we have?* I read here often that many Todsters believe BAU will begin a rapid shutdown in less than a decade. But how can I tell family and friends that? I can't even accept it!

Dang, I was just starting to enjoy this mid-life thing.

* Factor in also that our city is basically one huge suburb of three million people, with a very poor rail service and little hope of political improvement to it in the forseeable future.

Regards, Matt B
Oh well, back to bed... Sweet dreams or nightmares?

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The key characteristic of our simple model, several case histories and ongoing regional and world data is that it shows an accelerating net export decline rate. I expect to see a continued accelerating rate of decline in world net oil exports, which is why I always finish with a strong push for Alan Drake's plans.

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x on July 28, 2008 - 3:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan Drake's plans are suitable for urban areas, but are of little use for rural and small town areas. This urban/rural conflict is holding up progress.

When ethanol is rejected and only one solution that may suit urban areas is imposed there is going to be resistance from rural areas since they do not see any benefit.

A questioner asked about the percentage of liquid energy use that ethanol would be if all corn were converted to it. This implies that total liquid energy supply can continue at the same level it is now. It can not.

A more relevant question is what percentage of liquid fuel will ethanol be when we reach zero imports due to the ELM. By that time the ethanol percentage would be much larger because only domestic oil production would be available. This is not a minor point.

This inability to project oneself into the future situation is leading to a false conclusion about the usefulness of ethanol in mitigating Peak Oil.

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westexas on July 28, 2008 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan Drake's plans are suitable for urban areas, but are of little use for rural and small town areas.

The genius of Alan's approach is that he wants us to go with what we know works--using technology that was basically perfected more than 100 years ago, and built out with little or no liquid fuels.

http://www.plano.gov/Departments/parksandrecreation/recenters/interurban...
Plano, Texas Interurban Museum

INTERURBAN HISTORY

If you were fortunate enough to live in Plano between 1908 and 1948, then you most likely had an opportunity to experience the rollicking, clickity clack sway of riding on a Texas Electric Railway Interurban Car. This second generation of rail transportation extended from Denison to Waco, with connections to Fort Worth, Cleburne, and Denton possible through the "hub" station in Dallas. Rail transportation powered by steam first arrived in Plano in 1872 and forever changed the agrarian lifestyle of early settlers who had traveled to this area by covered wagon.

While steam engines guaranteed the survival and likelihood of growth to a community and transported farm crops to distant locations, the laborious process of producing enough steam to drive the train forward limited the frequency of stops along a line. In the late 1880's ingenious inventors discovered the wonder of electricity and devised ways to harness this marvel into driving trolley cars previously drawn by mules or horses.

ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE

Entrepreneurs, capitalizing on ways to market this new transportation, developed systems throughout the United States that connected small towns and outlying farms to a large, regional city. Overnight, farming families isolated from society by distance had easy and affordable access to opportunities and amenities available to urban populations.

And BTW, I think that local biodiesel plants, for agricultural use, probably make a lot of sense. Keeping with the theme of going with what was perfected more than 100 years ago, that is of course why Rudolph Diesel designed the engine in the first place--to allow farmers to have mechanized equipment powered by vegetable oil.

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Ben on July 28, 2008 - 4:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Compare and contrast that to what Plano has become; described by a college pal of mine (thirty years ago) as "the land where the BMW's roam free."

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TrueKaiser on July 28, 2008 - 10:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It has all the earmarks of what 'could' of been, had we not decided to go down the car path. not what 'can' be considering the current circumstances..

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 28, 2008 - 11:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

With some effort and expense (and trashing some wasted investments) a LOT can be done in a decade or two. Start now, and get as much done as fast as possible.

Alan

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jokuhl on July 28, 2008 - 4:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan Drake has many facets to the plans he has outlined. Trolleys may not be much use in small-town Iowa (right?), as they won't be in much of Maine, but a comprehensive system of electric Passenger and Freight Rail across the country will keep highway-bound, rural areas from becoming increasingly isolated. The plains states could be great contributors to an HVDC grid, possibly parallel to and serving these efficient electric rails, as they are fed in part by Iowa windpower.

I make no particular claims around ethanol, but I worry about the implication of doubling our dependency on crops for energy and for food, using materials vulnerable to drought, soil condition, fertilizer supplies, etc..

Either way, I don't think the Ethanol argument has any factors that preclude the sensibility of an Electric Rail buildout.

Bob

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 28, 2008 - 6:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_town_tramway_systems_in_the_United_...

Iowa - Albia, Ames, Boone, Burlington, Cedar Rapids, Centerville, Charles City, Clinton, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fort Dodge, Fort Madison, Independence, Iowa City, Keokuk, Marshalltown, Mason City, Muscatine, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa, Red Oak, Sioux City, Tama-Toledo, Cedar Falls -Waterloo PLUS several interurbans.

Maine - Augusta, Bangor, Bath, Biddeford-Saco, Brunswick, Calais-St. Stephen, NB, Fairfield, Lewiston, Portland, Rockland, Sanford, Waterville

Best Hopes for Urban & Rural Rail,

Alan

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Dennis Brumm on July 28, 2008 - 6:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Very good link Alan, thanks, Some of those towns (in Iowa at least) are under 10,000 in population.

My hometown was smaller - about 2000 people - and I was born in 1952. Once it had passenger train service that stopped there, by the time I was about 5 or so it still existed but I think you had to catch it at the county seat 7 miles away (by that point owning a car was pretty much assumed). At least until the 1960s several buses a day stopped in town as well. And there were businesses covering the whole gamut of what people needed. They're all dead now, the main street has a few new boutique businesses that aren't covered by the mall 16 miles away. Walmart's about 20 miles away. Even the main highway (US 34) has been diverted south of town, adding to the civic demise.

Most of the people I know in Iowa live in towns or cities, but none of them, far as I know, believe ethanol is a good idea, by the way. Apparently they even didn't before they listened to me. ;)

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jokuhl on July 28, 2008 - 6:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks, Alan;
I just wrote to one of my State Leg. Reps, (after your Post last week) but probably didn't advocate the positions clearly enough. Here is a bit of the response that I have to find arguments to counter.. should have checked with you right away, but had to get into 'Home Weatherization' mode.

Bob--

You sound like the challenge is just a matter of presentation. I took note earlier this year when I learned that Charlotte, North Carolina had initiated what was turning out to be a very successful new light rail system. Use was higher than projections and the economics are favorable. Such news is a very good sign. But

Charlotte has a population of 616,075. That is in the city proper. Portland's population, of course, is 65,000. As you know, what makes a system work economically is ridership. It would be good to have a model of a light rail system in America that works economically for a population base even remotely close to ours. Do you know of any such system? What would be the closest?

I did reply, in brief saying 'I know we can't afford to do it, but we also can't afford NOT to..' , and words to that effect. I think the argument for having interurbans will sell sooner here than of having intown trolleys, but I'd love to hear what angles you use when showing this to State Govts.

Best hopes for working outside our skillsets,
Bob Fiske

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 28, 2008 - 7:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Kenosha Wisconsin pop 96,240 has a streetcar system (recently voted to expand it). Uses old Toronto streetcars (Toronto about to scrap some more).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetcars_in_Kenosha%2C_Wisconsin

Also Little Rock

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Rail_Streetcar

Seashore Trolley Museum is in Maine, I know the (former ?) Chairman of the Board, I think that they would be open to helping out a combo local & tourist line in Portland ME.

Portland OR has figured out how to build streetcar track for $300/ft in street (2003 $)

Best Hopes for small Streetcar Systems,

Alan

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 28, 2008 - 8:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Soviet Elektrichka

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elektrichka

Interesting technical but even more so social commentary.

I can see one and two car EMUs connecting small towns a few times/day. With a container, box or flat car as well.

Alan

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Joe Average on July 28, 2008 - 6:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Texas Jeff and I'll have a read through Mr Drake's material when I get a chance. However, what's your "best guess" at global BAU collapse (assuming world powers and the Big Oilers do little to help steer a new path). Three years? Five years? Ten? Twenty?

I need a plan to determine whether to save for that farm or not.

Regards, Matt B
Still living in MS with a decade of debt in my pocket!

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commuter on July 28, 2008 - 10:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Matt, the credit crunch is beating PO to the punch, though there are some that believe it was triggered by the plateau in oil production.

It may not mean the end of BAU or not in Australia (then again, it certainly may), but it looks almost certain to cause severe global recession, possibly depression. I've always felt that the initial stages of PO would manifest as economic downturn rather than sudden shortages at the pump. Saving money & getting out of debt really is a very good plan right now, as is trying to ensure your job is on the "non discretionary" side of the economy.

That said, there's been previous articles about Australia's exposure to net exports. A substantial proportion of our oil comes from Vietnam and Malaysia, two countries on the fast track to zero exports over the next two or three years. After that we'll join the queue in the Middle East, along with many other thirsty nations...

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hamstak on July 28, 2008 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One criticism that I have of the video of the presentation is that the visual materials displayed on the projector screen are not included. If the video could be edited to include this material (Powerpoint I presume?) it would be more effective.

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Undertow on July 28, 2008 - 2:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Do you mean you don't see the slides at all? A frame should be opening up to the right of the video window with all the slides displaying in sequence at the correct time. This doesn't seem to work properly in various browsers/OS. Are you using Windows/IE or something else?

If when you visit the page you see (to the right of the embedded video) a big blue square with mediasite at the bottom there should be some buttons above that. Click the thumbnail one and you can browse the slides manually if they do not display automatically.

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hamstak on July 28, 2008 - 3:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I viewed the video with Windows Media Player, which I placed in full-screen mode since playing it in-browser clipped the video. Therefore, no graphs/charts for me :(

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Undertow on July 28, 2008 - 3:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Strangely the first time I played it the full video was clipped to what seemed like the top left quarter unless I went to fullscreen. Every other time I've tried it the video was scaled correctly.

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joemichaels on July 28, 2008 - 4:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One of the best Peak Oil presentations I've watched. What was clear to me is when you look at your body of evidence Peak Oil is not some way out theory but exactly the opposite.

At the end of your presentation your thesis "Can we continue to look at infinite growth in a finite world?" seemed irrefutable.

Thanks!

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WNC Observer on July 28, 2008 - 1:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As the saying goes, if you want more of something you subsidize it, and if you want less of something you tax it. This should be obvious even to an idiot, which tells you something about the IQ level of the people running the USA.

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BrianT on July 28, 2008 - 1:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I don't agree-the people running the USA are having a great time-never better. A study was done quantifying the dollar value of being elected a senator or congressman, and on average it is gigantic-the actual salary is inconsequential. These constant "idiot" references only tend to muddy the waters, which is what TPTB desire.

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thirra on July 28, 2008 - 5:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

BrianT,I think that when most people on TOD refer to the powers-that- be as idiots,or worse,they are refering to their lack of medium to long term vision,not their present ability to milk the system.

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gregor on July 28, 2008 - 9:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It's getting to the point where I no longer know how to interpret any claims of increased production from exporters, because I don't have a running handle yet on how much is left after going through the filter of domestic consumption. It's easier therefore to game declining production from Russia and Mexico, for example, as patently and uniformly bad news.

G

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328 comments on DrumBeat: July 28, 2008

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