41 comments on Chris Nelder on Yahoo's Tech Ticker
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41 comments on Chris Nelder on Yahoo's Tech Ticker
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I saw the interview this morning and was hoping that some oildrummers had seen it. Nelder was very straight-forward in the interview, simply stating the facts.
As much as I was surprised by the interview even being conducted in the first place, I was more surprised by the comments on the yahoo page. Wow. Folks are so quick to attack the messenger. Tree-hugger, doom-and-gloomer, he's out to sell something, etc. What's it called when you attack the messenger rather than the message... "ad hominem" attack or something like that?
At the same time, I can understand knee-jerk reactions by folks who are just starting to receive the peak oil message. It's scary. It's frustrating. And it's difficult to wrap your head around. So, quick, angry attacks are somewhat understandable.
"I was more surprised by the comments on the yahoo page. Wow. Folks are so quick to attack the messenger. "
Now you know why it's called, "Yahoo!". You can also tell why politicians are so stupid.
Why are people so irrational? I dunno, but this problem will solve itself. New York City and Miami might be under 50 feet of water, but that is how it goes, sometimes.
I understand the persons who do not comment on Yahoo have a better grasp and are thinking about how all this will effect them. I personally think this is truly captivating to experience all this! Of course, the Chinese have a curse; "may you live in interesting times ..."
:)
True, true. I took a look at the comments and the reaction is especially understandable because it's hard in the interview format to really say what needs to be said.
If you can't "box in" the audience, literally give them no escape from the logical inevitability of peak oil, people will dismiss the message out of hand. (Well, they'll manage to do that anyway when they are really committed to their current point of view.) Boxing in the audience takes more than a short ~12 minute interview.
In any case, Chris did a fabulous job without the benefit of graphs.
We're expanding the conversation bit by bit and Chris definitely added more people to the conversation today. The others, well, sometimes they'll only come around when the network of conversations of which they are a part is saying the same thing. Humans respond to the network of conversations they are in and right now the larger network isn't really mentioning peak oil much. This won't happen overnight, but it will happen.
-André
I saw it when it came out. And the unfortunate part is the "how to profit from Peak Oil" and 'I have the book to sell you'. So there should be some allowance for the public to receive it with skepticism.
True.
I would post a link to it on several (non peak oil) groups I'm on, but the title of the book would create more of a problem than it's probably worth, and would tend to make the message "a harder sell" for people on these lists. A good interview though, as all have stated.
But it is important to calm down as well, and offer a solution. China is really hitting it big with wind power these days, and my guess is that they will add several hundred GWs by 2020, and could power well over 100 million households. China will have a huge wind turbine export industry as the growth in the Chinese wind market is tremendous, smashing even the most optimistic forecasts. Cheap wind turbines from China will make the market extremely competitive in the years ahead and is highly welcome as it has become a seller's market at the moment with the rush to wind. Wind is very easily deployable and will be a key for the future sustainable future. Yes, there are some bird killings, but it is highly exaggerated. Road killings are thousands of times more serious.
The future is electric, the problem is whether the auto manufacturers can shift production fast enough
You are offering a "solution" to electricity. I believe we are suffering from an ecological time bomb, and peak oil and energy descent are symptoms.
Consider how HIV worked before some of the modern drugs. A person with it might get cancer: treat the cancer. Later pneumonia: treat the pneumonia. It didn't treat the underlying issue, the virus causing immune suppression.
Whereas I believe it is important to discuss peak oil and what mitigation strategies will cause the least misery, I don't offer "solutions" as such when it's a systemic underlying issue that really is, if not the root cause, the exacerbating factor.
China's economic growth is rather irrelevant (to me) considering the ecotastrophe in progress going on there.
But wind energy is going to be absolutely massive, and it is important to understand this. It is domestic, clean and great. And China is leading the way now, it will be a highly competitive market, and huge amounts of power generation can swiftly be deployed by new wind capacity. They are even testing out 3 MW turbines these days! 3 MW!
I think we must realize that it is great that China has reduced poverty the most and the quickest in human history. That should be hailed I think, as extreme poverty is really an awful situation. 80% of China was in the dollar-a-day situation 30 years ago, now it's only about 15%. That is good. But it's much better when it is done sustainably, which is the path that I think will be taken now. The Olympics could prove a real catalyst for that, but sky-high prices as well.
If we combine wind with geothermal and a few hundred nukes, and create great incentives for plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles the future looks better. I'm positive that China can pull that off by 2020.
Personally, I expect the "Chinese miracle" to turn into the "Chinese Disaster" within five years +/- two years. This is about the same time frame that it becomes clear that the human experiment is failing — badly. Right now it takes people looking forward some amount of time extrapolating the ecological impacts Dennis brought up to see how this is going to end.
Many people, in my view, don't have a feel for how systems work and thus are unable to do this extrapolation.
You expect it, or you hope it? You must back up your statement with facts.
I think the only things that I "must" do are eat and go to the bathroom. As far as I can tell, almost everything else is optional.
Are you requesting that I participate in a conversation with you?
But wind energy is going to be absolutely massive, and it is important to understand this.
You must back up your statement with facts.
It is domestic, clean and great. And China is leading the way now, it will be a highly competitive market, and huge amounts of power generation can swiftly be deployed by new wind capacity.
You must back up your statement with facts.
They are even testing out 3 MW turbines these days! 3 MW!
Is that supposed to be impressive!
80% of China was in the dollar-a-day situation 30 years ago, now it's only about 15%. That is good.
You must back up your statement with facts. (do show how its 'good')
If we combine wind with geothermal and a few hundred nukes, and create great incentives for plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles the future looks better.
You must back up your statement with facts.
I'm positive that China can pull that off by 2020.
You must back up your statement with facts.
Really, do back up your claims with some facts. Feel free to show how this time a rising standard of living and consumption of raw materials does not come with negative ecological consequences.
But it is important to calm down as well, and offer a solution.
Solutions have been offered. The problem is, the quickest solution - less people - is not popular.
The solution of powerdown - not popular, but beats a 'bullet in the back of my skull' solution. (others might be happy with a bullet in the back of my skull. But I'm betting their happiness would fade if the bullet is to go to the back of their skull.)
Plenty of things will be given the label of 'solution' - but the problems of use of the built out environment, pollution, ..... and fitting into past habits makes finding what will be branded 'an acceptable solution' nigh impossible.
The simple equation:
Total amount of energy = people X amount of energy used
will balance out - the only thing up for debate is what gets changed to make it balance.
Psssst...I have a phrase for y'all...Think Oilgae AND Methane Hydrates...Reference: Vertigro AND The Japanese
This board is considered doomer because....OF ALL THE DOOMER POSTS!!!!.....Seriously, back away from the keyboard and the Cheese Doodles and realize that there ARE alternatives. Also be aware that many (like me) see through the political agenda behind the warm embrace many folks have for the apocalypse...aka Peak Oil...I even agree with the politics...LOLOL... But oilgae will hold off the apocalypse...Sorreeeeeeeeeeeee
I imagine we'll find out soon enough, won't we?
In the meantime, you do what you want to do and I'll do what I want to do, which is to get as many people ready for an environment of scarce and expensive energy (and food).
realize that there ARE alternatives.
However, these 'alternatives' are more expensive (thus break the economic model built on cheap oil), consume far more resources than the fossil fuel infrastructure, and sometimes are more dangerous to man than fossil fuels.
Do you consider a 7 line post with 'laughing out loud' a rebuttal to 3 years of discussion on TOD?
If your goal is to change minds, consider going back over the 3 years of posts and explain how 'oilgae' is correct VS
Reference: Vertigro AND The Japanese
(What kind of 'reference' is that? Perhaps you are new to the internet. There is a thing called linking. Consider using them.)
Are the alternative fuels REALLY more expensive???....Let's see, oilgae is carbon neutral....Is oil?...Global warming, you HAVE heard about that????...Did you know we have over 500,000 oil wells just in the U.S. ALONE, and all those pipelines, refineries, gas stations...Have we EVER really calculated the TOTAL COST of all that infrastructure???....No???....Didn't think so...Sure, alternatives will be pricey AT FIRST....just like EVERY NEW PRODUCT!!!!...Then the price goes down
What makes you think this is a rebuttal???.....I come here to laugh at the doomers as they hunch over their keyboards eating Cheese Doodles while drooling hysterically over the Peak Oil apocalypse.....LOLOLOL
You know, you all want some science, you want some proof.......Why does the Apostle JHK and his Bible...THE LONG EMERGENCY....NOT have a SINGLE footnote....or even a simple graph?????????????
No, I'm not new to the Internet, but I know the guy who invented it...YUK YUK YUK
So here's a tip...Know what Google is?...Plug in Vertigro....Then plug in methane hydrates Japanese....No, I'm not going to provide links and spoon feed people...Do your own research!!!!
Problem is The Oil Drum and the people who post here are using the idea of petroleum depletion as a force majure to advance their own pet political agendas...I see that....So do a bunch of other folks.