Even if these fields become fully available, many oil experts warn that the world's production will hit a peak soon if it hasn't already. With the exception of Iraq's, most of the "easy oil" in large reservoirs close to the surface is gone. Mexico's biggest field, Cantarell, is in steep decline. Indonesia has become a net oil importer, withdrawing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as output from its largest fields has slipped and new discoveries have lagged. Production in the North Sea is plummeting, and Russian output is hitting a plateau.

This Washington Post article is prominently featured on the front page of the print edition. I think we can safely say the peak oil meme is mainstream.

Eh. Not bad, but as usual, they hedge their bets:

The prophet of limited supply is Matthew Simmons, a voluble Houston-based consultant who says the world hit its sustainable peak oil level in May 2005. He argues that even Saudi Arabia's super-giant Ghawar field -- with original reserves of 82 billion barrels and covering a 160-by-30-mile expanse -- is in decline. A self-labeled "Darth Vader of darkness," he travels the world and preaches his message in presentations to investors, military officers and Chinese officials.

According to his philosophy of "peak oil," supply is so tight that the price of oil, even at its current level, is still too low. He predicts it is headed to $500 a barrel.

At the other end of the debate is Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, a voice of optimism. "I am bullish about the role of technology in meeting future and current needs," Naimi said at a meeting in Washington. "Tight conditions in oil markets have caused some observers to speculate that oil supplies are at or near their peak," he said. "I believe such views are short-sighted and ignore the extent to which technology has enabled us to find and produce oil." If technology enables the portion of oil recoverable from Saudi fields to rise 1 percent, he noted, that would amount to 3.5 billion barrels, or about a year's worth of Saudi production.

I know. The media does this all the time. There is an implication that the truth lies somewhere inbetween. Ultimately though each person's argument must be subjected to scrutiny and evaluated on the merits (the kind of thing that happens here). But the media doesn't seem quite ready take those steps.

If you read the comments associated with the article, it is even more depressing. Lots of partisan bickering (I guess that is to be expected). And there are lots of people who read a bunch of garbage on the internet, and then consider themselves to be informed.

Agree and that is why I read blogs. Positions on both sides are put to the test and reasonable minds can decide for themselves who is making sense and who is just talking.

A quick reply to Saudi's position would be:

So a 1% improvement in recovery gives another year of oil.
Great.

Does it increase the amount of oil production? Does it say anything about what happens if we pull that extra year of oil quicker on the front end, what happens to the decline rate on the back end? High decline rates are not fun--talk to Mexico about that.

This hedging of bets is know as, "balanced reporting", a staple instructive at every school of journalism.

If you are going to investigate, educate, offend, or offer authenticity, you must cancel-out and/or make amends for your truth seeking by counterpoint, real or contrived.

Exactly damfino. I'd like to know how presenting both sides of the argument are "hedging their bets" as well. Otherwise it would simply be propaganda.

I think you misunderstood damfino's post.

Hmmm, maybe, but anyway my position is that both sides of the issue should be presented in any objective article. Are you suggesting however in your original post that the Washington post should have simply left out the argument on the other side of the issue?

I think the time comes when you have to take a side. That point has arrived with global warming. Most papers don't bother presenting the "other side" of AGW any more.

Do you think WaPo should give equal time to the theory that the earth is flat?

In cases like this, they'll still not listen. Golden Mean isn't a logical fallacy for journalists who likely get their income from paid advertisements off companies who have vested interests in this news never breaking, or at least, being taken seriously for now.

TAD would rather postpone making a decision until he is forced to shove an old lady overboard and climb into the lifeboat.

It is also possible that he doesn't have sufficient experience or information to make an informed choice. All he sees are "experts" who disagree, so he plays it safe and doesn't make a call at all. It takes time to really dig into it in detail and see who is just blowing smoke and who has the hard data to back up what they are saying.

The problem is that the media aren't making the smell test (does side B's argument make sense, to someone with more than a passing acquaintance with the issue?). In fact the media don't even try to screen out reasonable criticism from pure BS. And when they present two sides in a political debate, and one side resorts to clear easily proven lies, they just let that slide by as well.

This comment from the former owner of the Washington Post shows their real purpose:

All the President's Men is a wonderful work of fiction.

"We live in a dirty and dangerous world. There are some things the general public does not need to know and shouldn't. I believe democracy flourishes when the government can take legitimate steps to keep its secrets, and when the press can decide whether to print what it knows."
-- Katharine Graham at a 1988 speech at CIA headquarters

http://www.namebase.org/davis.html

confusion avoidance:

The quote from Graham is in quotes.

All the Presidents Men as fiction is not in quotes (and not her comment).

By the time the media acknowledges Peak Oil is real the elites will have already gotten their plans in place. I don't expect them to urge citizens to convert lawns to gardens or to recommend that the resources given to the military industrial complex should be used for mitigating the energy and environmental crises.

I think the politics of P.O. make the discussion and subsquent debate even more complicated. I will endeavor
to draw a correlation. When the world was of the two
predominant political ideologies of communism and democracy,there was the argument and debate about which gave workers and citizens a better life. When the USSR fell the debate was over, and the democratic
USA didnt feel the need to continue to give artificial concessions to its workers and citizens after the USSR fell,because it felt that its workers now had no other
choice and it wouldnt be necessary.
As P.O. now becomes main stream and an accepted fact,
It's movement will also suffer as democracy has turned
evermore totalitarian and less free....so too will P.O.
become corrupted and constrained.
When P.O. becomes main stream and accepted and the debate seems won, the real battle is just beginning.
The intelligentcia and founders of the movement will be
erased from public memory. The govermental
leaders will act like they brought the proletariat to the ball and the dance will begin again.
Already the MSM is accepting the fundamentals of PO and
the MSM is nothing more then the official spokesperson
for the goverments globally. The goverments will grasp
the standard as soon as they see the proles grasping
the understanding of P.O.
Heck!!!....for all I know,this site is run by Cheney
right now.

Hmmm, maybe, but anyway my position is that both sides of the issue should be presented in any objective article.

This is not "objectivity," it's being non-committal.

Objective scientific journals don't regularly feature the Creationist "side" of the evolution theory.

Journalistic "objectivity" is a sham. Not taking a point of view is a cop-out, a way of not offending advertisers.

both sides of the issue should be presented in any objective article.

Only if both sides are equally valid (or invalid).

If a 1% increase in recovery of OOIP is 3.5 billion barrels, then isnt Original Oil In Place 350 billion barrels??

I thought it was 700 billion barrels??

See the piece on Oil Drum Europe.

Every place these guys step now is a cowpie.

FF

Something to bear in mind Fractional_Flow: applying a percentage to OOIP to guess what might be gained from secondary recovery efforts is futile IMHO. Every field that ever had a potential for secondary recover has had such efforts taken. There are many fields, especially the very large ones, that have been under secondary (and, in some cases, tertiary) recovery for over 40 years. If someone wants to speculate on additional recovery from these fields they are essentially speculating on new recovery techniques that have yet to be developed. There will always be some fields that can justify extra efforts especially when you hit a price spike. But there have been many price spike and technology advances over the last 60 years. Saying that we can recover an extra 1% or 5% of all OOIP is like the old saying "If frogs had wings.....” . I've been doing secondary recovery for over 30 years...I know a bit about it.

A question for the expert: If you've spent decades flooding your fields with water, doesn't that sort of eliminate any possibility of using other secondary or tertiary enhancement techniques?

Thanks for the "expert" nod. No one that works with me would call me that. A water flood is a secondary recovery method. And yes, I've seen some folks try additional tertiary efforts (usually pumping in some chemical with the water) and these seldom ever add much but they are relatively cheap to do and, thus, are economically viable.

And, yes, that’s was my point: if you try to estimate increased recovery by secondary methods from fields that have already undergone secondary recovery you doing worse than double dipping. You're using not only the original recovery volume but also that gained from the secondary efforts. I can't speak for the rest of the world but I know Texas fairly well. And there are very few fields of size that haven't undergone serious water flooding or other secondary recovery methods for most of their lives. The only opportunities would be with relatively new oil fields and there just aren't many of those around these days. Bottom line: speculating about significantly increasing global recovery via secondary recovery methods is wasted breath (IMHO). Been there...done that...got the t-shirt...and now looking for something else to do.

miscible co2 flooding has been used "successfully" in a number of areas in mature waterfloods to mobilize additional oil. notably fields in the permian basin, rangley field in colorado, wertz and lost soilder in wyoming and more recently anadarko is claiming 7000 bopd incremental from co2 at salt creek, wyoming( i doubt one will find a more mature field than that*).

financing is a major obstacle.

*see "the teapot dome scandal" by laton mccartney for details.

Good point elwood. I was drilling in WY when they began laying that big CO2 pipeline into the area. A lot of those old field suddenly became a lot more valuable. But, as you know, there are just so many opportunities like that out there.

ff,

what's up with clr ? they were down about $10 at one time this am.

elwood-

I bought the Sep 50 calls at 9.

I think it was a real gift.

They beat earnings, the main beancounter who got them through the IPO resigned, but they are hitting on all 8 cylinders.

Made 31,000 BOPD for the quarter Harold Hamm says they will exit year at 43,000 BOPD.

Conference call was all about the great wells they are hitting. Increasing to 35 rigs running.

FF

Ah, but let's put this in context to what was out in the MSM 3 yrs. ago, 2 yrs. ago, last year. At least the discussion is getting to where it needs to be and the talking heads cannot avoid discussing it. They may keep explaining it away until the "price point" makes even that impossible to explain away.

Note the characterization of the two opposites. "Prophet and Darth Vader" vs. "voice" as in voice of reason. Yes, folks, the Peak Oil community is a religious movement which attends daily services at the Church of The Oil Drum otherwise known as the Church of What is Peaking Now. Today's services feature West Texas, our pastor of The Cult of The Export Land Model.

otherwise known as the Church of What is Peaking Now.

Here is What is Peaking Now. Denialism, ignorance, lack of critical thinking skills... the list is quite extensive.

I think we've got quite a way to go before Denial, Ignorance, lack of critical thinking skills etc Peak.

Just this morning I saw a woman on Q & A ask why Australia was going ahead with an ETS, when 'no one' else in the world has done so and when it would' cripple' our economy...

The author of the series has a blog...

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/energywire/

and he has a live chat today at noon Eastern:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/07/26/DI200...

The thing about the series is that they still seem to be afraid to draw too many conclusions. They talk about peaking but they don't say much about what happens on the other side. They don't mention the Hirsch report.

I guess we will see what kind of note the series ends on when we get to the end when they talk about "alternatives".

The chat is kind of interesting:

San Diego, Calif.: Sounds like a peak in daily supply is on the horizon, maybe in 2010-2012. What ramifications would this have?

Steven Mufson: I wouldn't want to put a date on peak production. (Matt Simmons thinks we're past it; others think it's still many years off.) There are many prospects still out there.

But even if the remaining oil is just harder to find and more expensive to produce, that has ramifications. I think the increase in inflation and huge flows of money to oil producing countries are some of the ramifications a peak in oil would have and we're getting a taste of that now.

I had a few questions of my own, but he never got to them. Figures..

Sounds like that guy needs to a bit more research before spouting off in in an internet chat session...I'll ask the traditional TOD question: do you have facts/figures/documentation to back your opinion? You don't? It's just a WAG? Too bad. Guess it's good enough for the MSM.

Look at it this way. Remember the day you first heard about peak oil?? Remember your reaction? Most people probably were in denial when they first heard about it. "Can't be true". "Someone made a mistake in their numbers", "There has to be a fix of some sort". Etc, etc. Note that it is one thing to admit that a peak exists in some abstract sense off in the future, and quite another to admit that it may be near.

And then, how long did it take before you finally accepted the reality of a peak in your lifetime?

Remember the day you first heard about peak oil?? Remember your reaction?

Yes: "well, of course - it's a finite resource, so it's got to peak sometime. People say it's now? Let's see what the numbers say..."

There is a world of positions between the extremes of denial and doomerism.

And then, how long did it take before you finally accepted the reality of a peak in your lifetime?

About 0.3 seconds - it seemed highly likely the moment I considered it.

The point of contention is generally not "will oil peak?" - everyone agrees with that. Almost everyone agrees it'll happen before 2050, too, which is "soon" to a certain degree.

The point of contention is "what will peak oil mean?"

I don't see people disagreeing when doomers say "peak will happen". They disagree when doomers give their prediction for what peak oil will mean for society.

Very few doomers have good predictive records (see Kunstler on Y2K, for example), so it should hardly be surprising that they don't always have great luck convincing people to believe their predictions. It's a mistake to confuse that with people refusing to believe in peak oil, though.