71 comments on Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
71 comments on Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Of course, our middle case has the top five net oil exporters approaching zero around 2031. At the Saudi's current rate of increase in consumption, they would be consuming about 12 mbpd in 2031, versus their 2005 total liquids production rate of 11.1 mpbd.
Well, I think that is much more reasonable. The russians have most likely peaked their exports already, while the saudis have perhaps a couple of more years to go at best. I think it is more reasonable to project future consumption by looking at per capita annual consumption of other countries at different income levels/stages of development. Everything points to sharp increase in the Russian consumption, perhaps up to around 5 mbpd in 2020. Their income level by then, and their price structure of refined products would imply that. It's a low population density country as well which points to more oil being used. Regarding Saudi, it is harder to find countries that are comparable simply because they are such huge per capita consumers already. I cant imagine the average Saudi gobbling over 100 barrels a year in 2031 though, although their diversification plans away from oil income certainly points to sharp energy increases.
I agree that it is highly unlikely that the Saudis will show a +7.2%/year rate of increase in consumption for 26 years, but our middle case production decline scenario and modest rate of increase in consumption puts them around zero net oil exports in 2031. Increasingly, I think that a lot of world trade will consist of net food and net energy exporters trading with each other.