71 comments on Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world
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71 comments on Mainstream Dutch analysts foresee oil supply constrained world
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Well, I think that is much more reasonable. The russians have most likely peaked their exports already, while the saudis have perhaps a couple of more years to go at best. I think it is more reasonable to project future consumption by looking at per capita annual consumption of other countries at different income levels/stages of development. Everything points to sharp increase in the Russian consumption, perhaps up to around 5 mbpd in 2020. Their income level by then, and their price structure of refined products would imply that. It's a low population density country as well which points to more oil being used. Regarding Saudi, it is harder to find countries that are comparable simply because they are such huge per capita consumers already. I cant imagine the average Saudi gobbling over 100 barrels a year in 2031 though, although their diversification plans away from oil income certainly points to sharp energy increases.
I agree that it is highly unlikely that the Saudis will show a +7.2%/year rate of increase in consumption for 26 years, but our middle case production decline scenario and modest rate of increase in consumption puts them around zero net oil exports in 2031. Increasingly, I think that a lot of world trade will consist of net food and net energy exporters trading with each other.