347 comments on DrumBeat: August 1, 2008
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347 comments on DrumBeat: August 1, 2008
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Ford has belatedly adopted a new strategy.... which is to design cars for the world as a whole rather than have separate product lines for North America. I think they call it "Ford One".
Ford Downsizing Cuts Deeply
Into Design, Engineering Units
There is no longer a need to specifically design cars for the American market.
Not incidentally, today we have this from Ford:
Officially, official: Photos of Ford's smallest kinetic car the new Ka!
Lots of pics but no specs yet.....
This is the first response to peak oil...The rapid rollout of small cars. If Ford can't do it, others will.
For instance, Tata plans to be building EV's in Norway later this year. How soon before there is a Tata plant (ICE or EV) in Detroit.
Tata Motors Developing EV; Rollout in Norway Likely This Year
The Ford Ka has been on sale in the UK for a decade. Just another small car.
And what about security? One could easily imagine the outcome, if you have an accident with this cart! I would never sit into a such car. Too dangerous.
All modern cars are far safer than any built 30 or 40 years ago. I cringe when I think of the vehicles I rode in/drove when young and immortal. Obviously it would come off worse in a collision with an SUV, but I have seen a head on collision between a medium sized car and a 15 tonne coach. The occupants (staggered) away. This size of car is very common here in the UK, yet the road accident death rate is far lower, even allowing for the extra vehicle miles driven in the US.
All modern cars are far safer than any built 30 or 40 years ago
The products of Mercedes Benz and Volvo of 30, if not 40, years ago were far ahead of their time. As a student working my way through school, I scrounged junk yards for cheaper parts when needed. I saw a number of Mercedes there and I never saw one where the accident did not look survivalable with minimal injuries if the occupants had been wearing seat belts.
Best Hopes for My 1982 W123 body,
Alan
The collision I saw was over 20 years ago, and yes, it was a Volvo. Seat belts were (fortunately) compulsory even then.
I saw a head-on crash between a Saab and another car 30 years ago, the Saab was barely scratched, the other car a write-off.
Most modern cars are designed to be a write-off in the event of a serious crash. The cars will crumple and absorb the impact of the crash. This protects the passengers from much of the force of the impact.
I'm sure I read an account of an old pickup colliding with a modern car. The modern car looked trashed, the pickup had a slight dent. However the passengers of the pickup were more seriously injured than the passengers of the modern car.
True story: Mid-80's, my brother had a 1965 Ford pickup.
He managed to total three other's cars with it (bad brakes) before he sold it back to the guy who sold it to him in the first place.
Never damaged his truck, but he was dropped by his insurance company.
The problem with the ultra small cars these days is that the car crumples up around you and ONTO you. Good luck getting out in a high energy crash
Several years ago my father put his 1984 300D Diesel partially through the back garage wall. The wall had to be redone, but the car barely had scratches.
I survived a frontal collision with a truck in a Mercedes 280SE saloon. Fortunately, I missed the front of the lorry and hit its rear axle (where it is wider). The car lost its roof, shrunk by a foot and the door next to me was pulled off. I broke my left knee as the dashboard moved back and my left foot as it was caught between the clutch pedal and the sidewall of the car. I had my seatbelt on. Could have been a lot worse.
One of the UK motoring shows ran a test about 6 months ago, where they crashed a 15-year-old Volvo (archetypal "tank" in the mind of the public), with a modern smallish hatch (Citroen IIRC). The cars were collided at 40MPH (combined) impact speed, frontally with 50% of each vehicle (drivers side) hitting the other. Crash-test dummies were placed in the driver's seats.
Result - modern impact-protection worked properly. Volvo dummy had mangled legs and likely severe neck internal internal injuries from the seatbelt action, Citroen dummy walked away due to clever safety construction and airbag.
Obviously if it had been modern 5000lb SUV vs. the same Citroen, we could expect a different outcome - but perceived safety from heavy weight and "tankness" isn't all it appears to be on the surface.
Regards Chris
here is the test, great visual of how far engineers have come in their safety designs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3ygYUYia9I
Once I got used to riding a bicycle in traffic, these kinds of questions never come to my mind any more.
Too one of these "eggs" across Europe back in '98. Not too bad, topped out at 100mph but would hold it on the way to Venice and got about 45mpg. Italian Alps were a little adventurous due to body lean, but it was almost as fun as a Ducati with all the leaning. Much better than taking the train and about the same amount of cash. Eurorail tickets are expensive when you're crossing countries.
Now if GM will just import the diesel Opel Vectra/Astra, I'd be in the market for a new Chevy. 10X better than anyting they make for the American market. The one I had a few months ago would fly (200kph) and get about 60mpg at the same time. Now those two cars would put Honda and Toyota on their heels. The Malibu and Cobalt aren't even a pathetic imitation. Don't know who designs this crap for GM, but its time they changed careers. Same with the management, its about time they actually displayed some leadership instead of being a bunch of pathetic accountants.
You actually appreciate an automobile as a functioning machine instead of a mobile armored living room. This is considered terribly un-suburban thinking and is discouraged.
Look at the names of some recent SUVs. Armada? Enclave? I wonder about the Escalade (escalate?) and Excursion (incursion?). It's getting to be like George Carlin's monologue about the difference between baseball and football. He also had one about "a place for your stuff", in which we try to drag along an extension of our households wherever we go.
My question to Ford has always been, how can an Excursion, be larger than an Expedition? An expedition is something that involves a lot of people, supplies, support etc.
An excursion can be a trip to the park. What's up with that? ;-)
Your problem is that you've probably already put more thought into these names than anyone at Ford had.
Of course the best is the "Armada" who would name their car for an ignominiously defeated naval campaign.
Here is a video of a head on collission of the huge Audi Q7 with tiny new Fiat 500: http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/190421/8e25e700/audi_q7_versus_fiat_500....
How about the Q7 vs a bicycle or a motorcycle head on? How does that one work out?
Very well for those on an organ donor wait list.
My nephew's wife is an ER physician.
She always refers to motorcyclists as "organ donors" :-]
or donor-cycle...
My family and I have always feared that these small cars are unsafe on California highways.
In a collision with several cars going 75 MPH + it would seem to be an issue, especially if a big rig or two is thrown in. People here drive like idiots on the highway, weaving in and out of lanes unnecessarily and speeding because they either late for an appointment, oblivious to the world around them and the physics of traveling at higher speeds or they disregard others' safety because they flat out just don't care.
We call the small cars "Coffin Cars" and the REALLY small ones "Urns".
In an accident just bury the whole mess.
I'd hate to have the jaws of life necessary to get me out of one of those things after an accident.
Just go to YouTube and watch the vehicle testing series.
Interestingly mileage is a function of weight and aerodynamics. You can certainly build a large, light car that is safer than a small, light car and with better mileage than a large, heavy car. The aerodynamics aspect involves the coefficient of drag (cd)and the result drag area (cda). You hear a lot about cd, but it's really the effective drag area that gets pushed through the air. For example, my Scion xD has a reasonably good cd (which is surprising, for a box) but the cda is not that great because it's taller than many other small sedans. My brother's old MR2 actually had a worse cd, but a much better cda.
The solution to a safe highway car is to make it longer (more crush area) and low profile (low cda). In town cars that might more often be T-boned can be wider and a little less long (not as big a chance for a high-speed head-on crash). For both, though WEIGHT it critical. The car company to master cost-effective carbon-fiber should "win", IMHO. Big, comfortable in-town cars (for hauling kids now, maybe just for carpool groups later) weighing half as much as today and powered by a Prius drivetrain and getting the same mileage are certainly possible.
The whole argument about safety versus semi's and full-size trucks is real and reasonable, but backwards. The real question is why have we ever allowed semis on the highways, when less money would have been spent to make a fully capable rail infrastructure (even with no on-grade crossing) without any of the many downsides to highway freight. Without massive new subsidies for highways (which is of course still likely for a while) this problem will eventually resolve itself as freight rates rise.
The pickup truck issue will require regulation at some point, as light trucks are often on the roads (pulling vacation trailers, boats, horses, other cars, etc.) and light short-distance transport as well. Requiring low-impact crush space on the front and back of such vehicles, plus automatic braking systems, would be reasonable.
Of course all this assumes we'll still need cars in 10 years. If the peak/slide occurs quickly, the whole point is moot.
We could also make the cars a little narrower. If Americans have gotten fatter, then it's probably pointless to claim that the back seat of an Accord can hold 3 current adults. If cars were honest 4-seaters, you could get the width down to maybe 60-65 inches while still having some side protection. Maybe a 13% reduction in frontal area. Note that Japanese taxes penalize cars more than 68 inches wide, which is why the Toyota Avalon is built in the US, not Japan, specifically to seat 3 in the back.
To go even further, I have been fooling around with staggered seating, where the driver is about a foot ahead of his front passenger. It appears you could narrow the car to about 50 inches, but I guess you'd also have to lower the car to regain stability.
I think you are missing some basics here. As we seem to be at Peak Oil, the days of cheap gasoline are gone. It's not possible produce good fuel economy in large heavy vehicles with the technology which is known today. That's because the larger vehicles have rather poor aerodynamics and the only way to improve aerodynamics is to make vehicles smaller. As the grotesquely over sized SUV's and big PU's are driven to the scrap yard, the incidence of collisions between small and large vehicles will decline. Also, at 75 MPH, a wreck in ANY car is very likely to kill you if you hit something solid, such as a bridge or a large truck. Those crash tests you mention are performed at 35 mph. You (and the rest of the U.S.) will need to get used to driving smaller, as much as you may not want to, because that's the only foreseeable future.
E. Swanson
As I pointed out, I've already gone to an xB (from a Suburban) and a Civic hybrid (from a Jeep Grand Cherokee), so the "going small" thing is past tense for me. I understand perfectly that even this is just a transition, and I'm waiting patiently for an EV. I may pick up a CNG car as another interim option as well. I've happily driven small two-seat convertibles, and would happily drive an EV version of a carbon-fiber Miata clone any day!
I'm not a full-doomer, but I know even this "hope" for some surviving vehicle economy is perhaps extremely optimistic, but that's where I'm at.
My point though, was exactly as you said -- cars need to be "smaller" in weight and frontal drag area. That's where the savings come in. Small for small sake has value in terms of shipping, parking, and road width, but it doesn't really save money.
Long, skinny cars for highways and light cars of any shape for city driving is the need. Light motors, light fuel (batteries), and especially light chassis are needed. It's stupid to push around 5,000lbs of car for 200lbs of driver. 1900lbs of car for 1,000lbs of passengers would help a lot.
And if things get really bad, even that won't be enough.
A lot of marginal users will indeed trade and then junk their pickups and SUVs, but tradesmen will need bigger vehicles and some people will always be able to afford the gas, whatever the price. It is these vehicles I think that need some added protection for "others" rather than for "themselves".
My comment on the 75 MPH was Their speed, not mine. :)
The number of people going like a bat out of hell in the fast lane here in California seems to never drop. It's difficult to watch sometimes. Stomach wrenching. They pass on the right, overtaking cars that are doing 60 to 65 MPH by 10 to 20+ MPH.
I drive 55 to 60 most of the time, adjusting to the situation as required. I do stay away from trucks even in my mid size van.
G
I bet $8 a gallon would solve a lot of these problems all at once.
super390 writes:
That's what I believe will cause much of this discussion to morph into something else. In Europe I've driven only in Germany where they drive on the correct side of the road. In a smaller car I felt secure because of the slower speeds and narrower roads. But even at 120KPH on the autobahn I didn't feel at risk. Slower speeds generally but not always equate to less risk and less damage.
'We call the small cars "Coffin Cars" and the REALLY small ones "Urns".'
good one- i coughed/choked laughed... tis true.
And what would you call an SUV? A mausoleum?
Pretty soon you'll call it the biggest paper weight you've ever owned
The WSJ reports on the downsizing of the design group:
Wrenching changes long overdue.....
I think they're making it sound more dramatic than it is. With large corporations, they almost always escort you out with security guards. Even if you're leaving voluntarily for a better job, or taking a buyout.
I've worked for several corporations and the only place I've ever seen it as standard policy (for firings) was at software companies.
As far as voluntary goes, I've left 3 software companies voluntarily and never been escorted out.
In fact, in all three I was on the job for months after announcing my intention to leave.
It's standard policy at IBM. My college roommate wasn't a software engineer. She was a mechanical engineer working in Physical Facilities. She took the buyout, and was asked to leave that day. She had to pack up her office stuff under the eyes of guards, and was escorted out.
Of course, everyone knows they do that, so nobody tells the boss they're leaving until the day they actually want to quit.
Well, IBM...
..that says it all. The place is a horror.
It's not just IBM, though. I've even seen it at colleges and universities.
Honestly, I would be surprised if they didn't escort a car company engineer out. He has access to trade secrets.
If he's worked there for a while, his head is jammed with trade secrets. 1000's of important specific details get etched into your brain.
After I left one company, I was approached by a 'consulting' firm who offered a surprising amount of cash for a chat. Any senior engineer is a treasure trove for the competition.
But these who were axed from Ford, probably weren't ones paid to obsesses about the designs of highly efficient automobiles.
Or maybe they were the engineers who'd proposed good designs and got over-ruled by the sales execs.
In short... the engineers get the heave-ho while the sales a-holes get points for the global car concept.
A number of years ago one of the largest Workers' Compensation Boards in Canada fired all of their investment managers when they outsourced this function to a bank. From what I'm told, the phones lines suddenly went dead and security guards marched in and escorted everyone in this group out of the building single file and into waiting taxis. No one was allowed to touch anything on their desk and personal belongings were later boxed and sent to the owner's place of residence. Everyone was in utter shock and disbelief at the brutal way it was handled (it was as if a bomb had gone off in the building) and the demoralizing effects were felt throughout the entire organization.
Cheers,
Paul
Control Data seemed to think of a new and more disturbing way to lay people off every time. And they should have been really expert at it, as they shed all of their 60,000 employees by either selloff or layoff. There was the one where you waited at your desk doing nothing to see if you got escorted out, knowing your project was scrapped anyway. There was the one where you attended a meeting with an "angel of death" and an "angel of life", each handing out envelopes that had either your termination letter or an offer to continue. There was the one where the building was locked up with chains around the door, and you were bussed to a theater and told of its closing. And of course, there was the out-of-the-blue layoff where you had no idea it was coming, and the security folks showed up at your office with a box for your personal stuff, and they never let you out of their sight until you were out of the building. This last one seemed to be the most popular method.
When big corporations are in trouble, your personal dignity is not a high priority.
Dan
I've seen the two-room, two-angel method too. One guy's BS detector went off so he decided to skip yet another "mandatory" meeting, and ended up working all day by accident though he was supposed to be layed off at 9 a.m.
Bell Canada's method was to encourage people to work from home - first they would eliminate their office space because it wasn't needed; then they would cancel their computer access along with their employment.
Nortel Networks would invite people to a departmental meeting in the auditorium where they would all be fired together - got to be known as the "slaughter-torium".
Lots of fun ways to fire people :-/
There sure is. Back in 2003.
Revenge of workers sacked by text message
Matrixx Marketing (now owned by Convergys) here in Houston once did a major layoff the week of Christmas. Yes, they brought in extra security. I really detest big corporations...
Engineers don't have to give any notice?!?
The way it usually works is that you give your two weeks' notice, but they don't actually let you work those two more weeks. They may pay you for them.
However, you really don't have to give two weeks' notice. It's a courtesy. If you want to get a letter of reference, you'll give notice.
That is Standard Operating Procedure at my large corporate KC-based card company.
A word about the picken's Plan here:
The entire electrical grid in the US goes back to before 1900. It has grown layer, upon non-standardized layer for all this time. Much is decrepit. Current solar and wind installations are off-line obligatorily, when the capacitance of the grid is not capable of absorbing the energy generated now...the absorption rates are INEFFICIENT, and determined by local conditions at the entry point.
The system, to absorb the 20% of national energy requirements envisioned by Pickens and alluded to by Gore requires a TOTAL restructuring and renewal of the ENTIRE ELECTRICAL GRID."
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Speaking of the US Grid, there was a great article this week on building a Insterstate Transmition Superhighway for electricity:
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=53193
One wind developer (John Deere ?) uses that weakness to their advantage. A rural distribution line may have a maximum capacity of 12 or 18 MW, so they put up a small 12 or 18 MW wind farm on the line.
When the wind blows, they feed local demand on the rural distribution line and feed the excess back into the larger grid (SWAG a 12 MW line probably has 1 to 5 WM of demand 95% of the time).
No new lines required :-)
Not good for powering Chicago from Montana, but useful now.
Best Hoeps for More Wind,
Alan
There are continuing differences in regulatory requirements in terms of crash-worthiness, lighting, etc. A good policy move for governments of auto-manufacturing countries would be to harmonize standards so that companies could truly sell any car in any market. Markets that are willing to compromise safety for savings would get the same car without airbags, ABS, etc.--easy enough as these are just "lighter" configurations of the same car on the assembly line.
Such harmonization is long overdue--it would probably increase buyers' options in any one market as well as reduce manufacturers' costs (which they could pass on to consumers or add to profit).
IIRC, Ford was talking about doing this "world car" thing over 20 years ago. Glad to see that their reality may finally be catching up to their old advertising. I guess this means that we should expect to see some real quality improvements any day now? (Remember "Quality is Job 1"?)
But really, who didn't see the SUV's collapse coming a mile away? Who didn't note the beginning of the end when, a mere five years ago, the world's worst consumer vehicle ever took its place as the king of obscene stupidity, the poster child for all that went wrong with the condescending American ethos, the oil-sucking war-drunk Bush-mauled mind-set?"
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2008/07/30/notes073008.DTL
"Nobody could have predicted that..." :-)
I'm waiting for the return of the Ford Pinto. It never achieved "classic" status so we never see them around, even at antique / classic car shows. I used to drive one with hatchback, put extra-large wheels on the back so it was like an overdrive, drafted trucks between Boston and South Bend for 40+ mpg. Not such a big deal now but it was fun to drive. Ignore the rumors about Pintos exploding when rear-ended!
- Dick Lawrence
OMG...I had a Pinto when I was 18. I used to call it the Weber Grill on wheels. It had a sunroof and the hatchback. My girlfriend at the time would take it to the country and go "roofing" (she would ride sitting out the sunroof while I drove.
Good memories!!