91 comments on Peak Caviar
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
91 comments on Peak Caviar
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
My intuition says your thesis is correct about oil because of waterflood and horizontal wells in the largest of fields. Cantrell for example (nitrogen in that example of course but similar issue). But it is only intuition. How might we go about testing it?
When David Rutledge posted his study on coal here on TOD, one of the comments contained a link to this site on German oil production. It has just the opposite curve. Steep climb, slower fall. Any thoughts on why?
http://abrandt.berkeley.edu/hubbert/hubbert.html
[Edit] Just look at the caviar price volatility. No wonder huge respectable oil trading companies cannot guess what the market will do!
Germany's remaining coal supplies are being extracted in a situation where coal is substitutable i.e by NG, Nuclear etc etc. This is the same situation for the US which peaked early and declined under conditions of ready availability of other source primarily ME oil.
You have to look also at the price action to see if the resource was under "stress". I think you will find that German coal never showed a exponential increase in price and was therefore never in short supply in the sense that alternatives resulted in extraction rate matching fairly low pricing pressure.
The US oil production is finally under exponential price stress and I expect that given the extensive use of technology in the US for extraction our current production plateau will undergo a steep decline unlike its historical decline rate where we were extracting increasingly efficiently but without the price pressure.
I think Jon was talking about oil production.
It would be interesting to see the discovery cycle. Just a guess, but it may be that there would be a smoother climb if oil facilities would not have been damaged in WW2, so after the war they could get back online rather quick, together with further new drilling during the “wirtschaftwunder”.
On the other side of the peak the reason should be that the fields weren‘t pushed to hard, German engineers are said to be more conservative… ;-)
What an excellent pattern of thinking and reasoning memmel. You are Awesome... :) Brilliant indeed.