91 comments on Peak Caviar
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91 comments on Peak Caviar
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The bell curve of sturgeon catch is not so clear if you go back to older data. I had to do an undergrad dissertaion on fossil fuel supplies and being a dutiful researcher went to the original data source, the cites database (I think). I found that there was a little cherry-picking of data in this particular example. Before the 1970s there is a another peak, a little like world oil production in fact.
This does not mean I disagree with the premise, just that this particular example lends itself to attack by anyone who goes and checks the underlying data. If anyone's interested I will post the graph I made of the whole data series when I get home.
EDIT: Just to clarify I am referring to the first graph of whole world sturgeon catch, the second is a much better and less ambiguous example.
Indeed we had started with a limited set of data. Then, when we had the whole set we saw that the simple bell curve didn't fit. Life is a continuous improvement.