91 comments on Peak Caviar
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91 comments on Peak Caviar
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Germany's remaining coal supplies are being extracted in a situation where coal is substitutable i.e by NG, Nuclear etc etc. This is the same situation for the US which peaked early and declined under conditions of ready availability of other source primarily ME oil.
You have to look also at the price action to see if the resource was under "stress". I think you will find that German coal never showed a exponential increase in price and was therefore never in short supply in the sense that alternatives resulted in extraction rate matching fairly low pricing pressure.
The US oil production is finally under exponential price stress and I expect that given the extensive use of technology in the US for extraction our current production plateau will undergo a steep decline unlike its historical decline rate where we were extracting increasingly efficiently but without the price pressure.
I think Jon was talking about oil production.
It would be interesting to see the discovery cycle. Just a guess, but it may be that there would be a smoother climb if oil facilities would not have been damaged in WW2, so after the war they could get back online rather quick, together with further new drilling during the “wirtschaftwunder”.
On the other side of the peak the reason should be that the fields weren‘t pushed to hard, German engineers are said to be more conservative… ;-)
What an excellent pattern of thinking and reasoning memmel. You are Awesome... :) Brilliant indeed.