Chalk one up for Westexas and Khebab

Norway's Crude Oil Exports Likely to Cease by 2030, E24 Reports

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Norway's oil production peaked in 2001 and exports are likely to end by 2030, Norwegian business Web site E24 reported, citing a study by Professor Kjell Aleklett at Uppsala University in Sweden.

Production at larger oil fields in Norway has decreased by 13 percent a year, while annual output at other fields has slumped 40 percent, a rate of decline that's likely to accelerate, Aleklett told E24.

Production should have been limited at 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil a day in 2001, instead of the 3.6 million barrels a day that was produced, Aleklett said, according to E24. This would have extended production to 2050, E24 reported.

And here's a link to the Googlish translation of the E24 article
End of the Norwegian Petroleum Export in 2030

In 2001, the Norwegian oil production has reached the top, and began to decline. Now there's nothing you can do to stop the decline, says a professor at Uppsala University, Kjell Aleklett, to E24. He, together with colleagues mapped the Norwegian oil production and believes Norway's oljefremtid is bleak.

Already in 2030, it is uncertain whether Norway has oil to spare for export after their own consumption is supplied.

Professor of Economics at NHH, Rögnvaldur Hannesson, is not agreed in Swedish dramatic representation of the situation.

Our middle case for Norway has them approaching zero net oil exports is around 2025.

Regarding the Saudi article linked up top, note that there was no mention of: (1) Net Oil Exports; (2) The annual rate of production for 2008, which will almost certainly be below their 2005 rate; (3) A monthly production rate of 9.7 mbpd, if accurate, would only be about 100,000 bpd above their peak 2005 monthly rate. It would appear that we will find out in 2009 if 2005 was the final annual peak for Saudi Arabia, but I estimate that if they wanted, in 2009, to match their 2005 net export rate, they would have to boost their 2009 total liquids production to about 11.8 mbpd, versus 11.1 mbpd in 2005 (2005 C+C average annual rate was 9.6 mbpd).

BTW, if anyone is interested, the Dallas Morning News is sponsoring a discussion of "The Long Emergency" by JHK:

http://bookclubblog.dallasnews.com/