 | DrumBeat: August 14, 2008 | The Oil Drum | Geopolitical Disruptions #1: Theory of Disruptions to Oil & Resource Supply |  |
53 comments on Italy like Ryanair: can it exist with oil over $ 100 per barrel?
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53 comments on Italy like Ryanair: can it exist with oil over $ 100 per barrel?
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I think the UK will be in the running for basket case economy of the decade. My real concern is inflation, now officially over 4% in the UK it is likely running way over 10%. This masks the fact we are in deep recession and deep shit - all courtesy of New Labour Lies.
The government will of course be found out when lower paid workers being offered 2%, can no longer borrow, find they are totally insolvent and strike.
I suspect the mafia ran out of enemies to murder - it looks like a logistic - pretty much like the oil industry running out of oil fields to discover.
At some stage we need to have a debate about efficiency. It is clear that efficiency is very good in some circumstances and dreadful in others.
Was on holiday in Italy a few weeks ago and a couple of things seemed to be noticeable with regard to the economy. The driving on the toll motorways was surprisingly pleasant from Rome to Naples as there were few people driving at or above the speed limit. the majority were at least 10kph within the limit. My landlady took a trip to see family in the south of Italy but made a comment about keeping the air-con off for most of the journey as the fuel consumption got so much worse. The driving on ordinary roads by comparison was hell, as usual, because of all the kamikazee scooter riders.
Italian properties seem to have little heating available for the winter and those premises we went in had the air-conditioning set at a far higher temperature than you find in the USA. An attempt to cut costs?
Around Rome at least the public transport seems well used and intergrated and together with the scooters gives individuals more transport options.
The most surprising thing compared to Greece was the apparent lack of solar water heating. This would seem, in a Mediterranean country, to be the quickest way to cut energy usage in the country in the next few years.
Oddest thing was Sylvester Stallone on the roof of the Vatican, not sure how he helped the economy though.
Yes, Italy is notable among the Mediterranean countries for the lack of heating panels. I saw more panels in Morocco than in Italy. I don't know why; after all we should be "Il Paese del Sole", Sun country. Maybe we think we are too rich to need to heat houses with the sun. Third world things.... And you should see how badly insulated houses are!
As much as you are surprised about the lower degree of air conditioning in Italy than in the US many Europeans are puzzled about the very low AC temperatures in the US - and very high heating temperatures in winter. I've heard that in the US sometimes room temperatures are even lower in summer than in winter - is this true or a legend?
I think here it is not only due to higher electricity prices but also because people simply don't like it (unnatural, dry air, extreme temperature shocks etc.). And whereas in the USA AC is common since decades this is a rather recent phenomenon in Europe, so people are not used to it.
I fight the thermostat battle with my fiancee all the time. She likes it cold in the summer. If I turn the thermostat up, she complains that it feels like a sauna. I guess the plus though is that she likes it cold in the winter too...
One interesting point though. The primary job of AC isn't to reduce the temperature - it is to reduce the humidity, which is easily done by chilling the air. A malfunctioning AC system can chill the air but not enough to reduce the moisture, and this leads to a cold and clammy feeling. I am inclined to think that the thermostat ought not blindly use the temperature as a target, but use some combination of humidity and temperature to reach a certain comfort level. Thus on days when the air is warm and dry the system doesn't have to work so hard.
I've heard that in the US sometimes room temperatures are even lower in summer than in winter - is this true or a legend?
Ya'll got a problem with that? Talk to the gun!
I'm sad to say that this is at least the case in Canada too.
Many a day, in the summer, I'm wearing a long sleeved shirt and long pants - because it's cool - and I'm passing house after house with the A/C running. At home we don't have A/C, don't see a point in A/C because we only get short stretches of hot muggy days now and then. The deck is shaded so eat outside on it and if the upstairs gets too hot to sleep in (>32C) then just move down a floor or three (I'm usually not able to tolerate the basement - it's too much of a temperature shock).
It's individualism and isolationism. People go around sealed in their cars, or they're sealed in their buildings; rarely experiencing the changing temperatures. Offices at work have people wearing winter clothes because the A/C is set so cold. Mostly the problem at work is that there is very poor control of the cooling - so people in some areas wear sweaters in the summer.
Certainly as one gets older one seems less tolerant of colder temperatures and I've been in buildings where
the temperature must have been around 25C in the winter. We keep our home around 20C daytime, 16C nighttime ; although I know people in upstate NY which keep their homes around 16C daytime and they can tolerate that - but it's too cold for my fingers to do work.
I have co-workers who refuse to "freeze in the dark". Translation - they leave all of the lights on in labs that are not being used, leave the heating/AC going full tilt and will not even consider turning off half of the lights. In comparison I never turn on the heating or cooling in my office and replaced the 800W of lighting with a 40W CFL. The fan for heating/cooling uses almost as much power as my home. The lights use as much power as my home. The rooms I manage, each, use around 5x to 10x the power of my home. Around here, anything that I do will swap what 10 of my neighbours and I can do. Paybacks at work are sub 1 year (esp. for things like upgrading computer power supplies to 80Plus spec ones like Antec) for efficiency upgrades while those at home are >15 years. CFLs have only started taking off recently; but I remember them being all over the place in Scotland around 8 years ago. Over there, water heaters hang on a wall and vent into the room; around here an on-demand water heater is 3x more powerful than my furnace and costs thousands to install and have to vent thru a wall (which greatly limits where you can install them). I've got relatives that can shower in 80L of water. That's enough water for me to shower daily for 8 days and wash all of the dishes for my family for those 8 days. This is a relative who is working to build a "green" home - and they'll suck my 19 gallon water heater dry with a single shower.
Energy over here is so friggin' cheap it's amazing. With gasoline around $6US/gallon I still don't bother thinking about using the car - because the cost of purchase, ownership and insurance swamp fuel costs (well I commute by bicycle). Dito for the home. With taxes running almost $3k/yr and energy costs only around $1k/yr there simply isn't any reason to do anything to save energy. My monthly phone bill is nearly 2x my electricity bill. If I had a Blackberry that would make my electricity bill look cheap too.
I hear about homes in the USA that will take $5k/winter to heat (oil) but just can't believe it as my home (15 years old - standard subdivision home) is around $350/winter +$200/yr connection fee for gas). Then again I was just working on a farm and they burn 20 cords of wood per winter for heating/cooking.
Drillo,
"I've heard that in the US sometimes room temperatures are even lower in summer than in winter - is this true or a legend?"
Sometimes it is, but it depends on the individuals. In the Winter I like keep the temperature down and to dress warmer. My friend complains that one of his kids turns the heat up to about 80F (?)28C(?).
In the Summer my problem is with these big office buildings where most of the air is recirculated. It feels stuffy to me. I like windows that open. Also - as you mention - it is a shock if the difference between outside & inside temperatures are too great.
I agree with Euan, I think the UK is in worse shape than other Euro countries:
Italy has a low birth rate [short term pain for permanent gain]
Italy still makes things - precision engineering, furniture, vino etc.
Italy doesn't have to go "cold-turkey" over the free drug of North Sea oil.
Any GDP Italy has, is not made by the "3 card trick" of finance.
It remains to be seen, if the UK finance industry did anything useful for most UK people.
The ultimate cause of the decline of the UK and the US, is the same reason we cannot win an asymmetric [terrorist] war - Spoken English.
Because deviants, freeloaders, dream chasers, nutters with a cause worldwide etc, can understand some English we cannot:
a] Win a conflict with them
b] Apparently stop them coming into our country and multiplying.
This is the prospect foreseen by us here at Forthcoming UK Energy deficit (FCUKED) since 1999.
Euan is harsh on Nu- Labour for present economic mire but the previous administration ignored the need to plan for energy security.
If we had commenced planning in the late 90's by getting ready to build nuclear power, and planned our imports of fossil fuels better we would be far better placed.
This is not wisdom after the event - the facts were staring us in the face after Mad Margaret c losed the coal mines and did her "dash for gas."
It is also nowe becoming evident that nuclear power may have some benefits in terms of lower emissions (if this IS a benefit ?) but it is looking increasingly costly ;
1. Construction costs and the burden of heavy capital investment
2. Uranium costs are rising as the limited resource available becomes , like Peak Oil more evident.
3. Skilled labour to design / erect / commission / run plants has to be competed for - the CBI last year called for doubling of science graduates in 10 years . For the first time for decades the number of students taking A level maths increased this year.
Whilst theer are enough strip mines and paeons happy to dig, for power generation in the First World, coal is looking cheap , gas a dearer and nuclear getting dearer by the day - unless like France you have an installed base and through Cogema a grip on Uranium for the next millennia.
Wind is dearee still and PV even more so - wave energy is still a decade or more away.
Meanwhile it would be interesting to look more closely at Italy as they are so closely tied to Russian sources and secondly Algeria, where the Russkis are spreading their influence dramatically.
It's nearly 2 years since the historic memorandum of understanding was signed between Gazprom and Algeria's state-owned exporter Sonatrach, an agreement which in theory put 69% of Italy's natural gas under the control of a sole distributor.
At the time, EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said that "Our worries are the development of the contacts between Russia and Algeria," which he believed was first formative move to create a creeping natural gas cartel. The Gazprom-Sonatrach agreement also made a visible impact on Paolo Scaroni of Eni, who went from warning about the cartel to becoming one of Gazprom's proxies in Europe shortly following this deal. "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" is the Italian wildcat's strategy.
In April 2007 when Yukos assets were sold off from the bankruopt company 20 % Gazprom's oil subsidiary, Gazprom Neft, which had been owned by Yukos was sold together with companies that hold natural gas field licenses in the Russian Arctic. An Italian joint venture between Eni and Enel, called EniNeftegaz, won with a bid for $5.83 billion.
The deal followed an agreement signed last November between Eni and Gazprom that, broadly, promised the Italian company access to exploration- and production-related, Russian gas assets in exchange for investment opportunities for Gazprom in the consumer side of the natural gas business in Europe.
"This transaction, which is in the context of a fruitful and ongoing relationship between Italy and Russia, underlines the value of our strategic partnership with Gazprom," Paulo Scaroni, the chief executive of Eni, said at the time.
The business methods are the same it is just a different set of Mafia at work - which may account for the decline in home grown Mafia activity. see this
"The head of Italy's Antitrust Authority, Antonio Catricala, has voiced fears over the anti-competitive implications of the proposed cooperation between Eni and Gazprom. Mr Catricala has been quoted as saying that, while the agreement would enable a major new operator to enter the Italian market, the cooperation between Gazprom and Eni would mean that competition would not be injected into the market with this new entry, making the deal disadvantageous from a competition perspective." see
http://tinyurl.com/5tprjd
Effectively if one could unwind the somewhat byzantine activities of ENI and Mr Scaroni with Gazprom and associates (which include, amongst many influential Russian based business men, the footballing fan Mr Abramovitch).
Given the continuing saga of Georgia (where it gets very cold in the winter without gas)and the rapid and direct influence of the Russian State and its interests - which can be identified as the same as Gazprom's - and which no - one seems the slightest bit interested - or even aware of, and certainly not concerned shoudl give Europe a great cause for concern. ENI is effectively run by Gazprom / Russia.