70 comments on "Energy Resources and Our Future" - Speech by Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957
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70 comments on "Energy Resources and Our Future" - Speech by Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957
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Roger,
In response to the graphic reference at the end of your post, I assume that the inference is that of an overlooked salvation, that an ample, sweet, ripe fruit is dangling right in front of us and we fail to see it.
The catch is that fossil fuels, coal, oil, and methane, all came to us in the wondrous wrapper of a 'battery' - concentrated energy stored and ready for release and use on demand.
Sunshine is delightful in the moment, but needs copious amounts of oil to retain it's usefulness for a rainy day.
And the subtext of that graphic is "don't worry, be happy" there's plenty out there and more where that came from and somebody will figure out how to tap it out, so just be happy.
Just what the cornucopians want to hear so they can tell us the American lifestyle is not negotiable and keep on with business as usual.
I have been reading Kevin Phillips about late stage empires and I rather doubt we are capable of the clarity Rickover shows, who lived at a time of Peak Empire.
The grandchildren of peak empire just want to suck their thumbs, hold on to whatever serves as blanky, and just be happy. Make big bad peak everything go away.
When a presidential candidate mocks the other one for a serious energy conservation recomendation and wants to enter his wife in a Miss Buffalo Chip topless contest...I'd say we are in full descent.
"In response to the graphic reference at the end of your post, I assume that the inference is that of an overlooked salvation, that an ample, sweet, ripe fruit is dangling right in front of us and we fail to see it."
I would argue that I did not intend to infer that it is "dangling right in front of us" in the way you are saying. But it is in front of us. Whether we are clever enough to scale it and use to anywhere near it's potential is the question that remains unanswered.
As for the "copious amounts of oil" required to devolop and exploit solar power (and other renewables such as wind, geothermal, tide, etc.), "copious" is a relative term. We burn "copious" amounts of oil with no hope of a return. How much oil has been used in the construction of Beijing roads and skyscrapers in the last ten years?
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/06/06/som_skyscrapers/image/cwtc_beiji...
http://www.nancyliu.com/images/beijing_Night-time.jpg
Or Dubai?
http://www.tourismzone.com/photos/middleeast/united-arab-emirates/dubai/...
http://www.funonthenet.in/images/stories/forwards/dubai%20projects/Burj%...
Manmade islands create the map of the world:
http://guide.theemiratesnetwork.com/living/dubai/images/the_world/the_wo...
Manmade islands palm:
http://funkyuncensored.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/dubai-palm-island.jpg
http://homesgofast.com/UserFiles/dubai-property.jpg
"Copious" amounts of oil, steel, aluminum, concrete, coppoer,glass, and other resources are used all over the world everyday for projects that offer no hope of energy return, only the assurance of more energy consumption. "Copious" amounts of money are also poured into these projects. It is fascinating that financing and materials can be found for these often questionable projects, but is always short for renewable energy production.
My point in using the illustration was this: When people tell you that we only have "X" amount of barrels, BTU's, kilowatts, Joules, or whatever way you want to measure it of energy left, and then we are "out", it's all over, it's done, civilization is finished, and THEN claim the supoport of "physics" to make these claims, I know they are most certainly not correct, and I don't care what value is assigned to "X".
It is with great sadness and discomfort that I have seen people using almost any "fact" they want to use, and then claiming science and physics support these so called "facts". It is known that many people will not bother to question these "facts" if science is invoked, or may not even know how to begin to question them. It is preying on the scientific illiteracy of the public.
I make my living at this time by employment in the market and media survey business. I assure you that if you showed most people the illustration I used at the end of my post, they simply would not believe it. They have been told for years that alternative energy, especially solar, is "pie in the sky", "marginal" and far too expensive to ever be useful. I have heard folks right her on this board attempt to ridicule and humiliate anyone who discusses alternatives with comparisons to "getting methane from the moon of Saturn". We are now teaching our children in peak oil presentations that alternatives are a "myth". It causes us to question why such a relentless attack on alternative programs is felt to be needed at a time when the cost of extracting oil and gas is going nowhere but up?
So be it. But I still have the ability to ask questions, to check underlying assumptions. I am sure not going to destroy my mind and my investments with unwarrented assumptions that cannot be proven in any way. Yes, we face a crisis, yes we need to change and no, the changes are not being made fast enough.
But some of the attacks on the alternatives are utterly outragous. Right here on this string for example cjwirth says:
"No, I'm scared too, because I know what the impacts of oil depletion will look like and that alternative energies policies will accelerate oil depletion and demonstrate that humans are not smarter than yeast."
With the exception of biofuels such as ethanol, I ask for any evidence that alternative energies increase oil depletion. ANY.
I will not become a defeatist and destroy my own health and my ability to enjoy life based on such nonsense (and I do not fault cj, what he is saying is said so often that has become mantra that no one even bothers to question), and I question the wisdom of anyone who does.
RC
Roger,
I don't wish to suppress your hope and enthusiasm. I just believe the graphic to be misleading.
The operative word in the big yellow orb is "available", which is quite different from "operational".
From CNN, October 2007:
"According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007, solar, wind and geothermal combined only account for around 1 percent of the world's electricity generation, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) putting solar power's contribution to the global energy supply at just 0.039 percent. In the United States, solar power meets less than 0.01 percent of electricity needs, according to the Los Angeles Times."
Let's double the estimations above just to cover the possibility of bias or misreporting. Regardless, the resulting large yellow circle is now less than a dot, so small that it is not visible on the scale of the graphic.
I make PO presentations and I do my darnedest to minimize the doom factor. But are we really doing people a service by offering up a hope which may not be intrinsically false, but is inherently unreasonable or impractical?
Regarding: "With the exception of biofuels such as ethanol, I ask for any evidence that alternative energies increase oil depletion. ANY."
Every alternative incarnation hastens the depletion of energy by the very nature of the pursuit. A photovoltaic device is but oil in another form. Scrambling for replacements accelerates the inevitable, and only serves to soothe and console those living in this moment. My children, and especially my grandchildren, deserve some measured constraint.
We have to embrace the only true long-term solution: power down, get small, go slow, simplify,...just get by. In time, it will be forced upon us anyway.
Peace to you -
damfino,
First to your point "The operative word in the big yellow orb is "available", which is quite different from "operational".
True, but of course nothing except raw nature is operational unless humans make it so. Coal, oil and gas are "operational" because a century and a half of decisions, investment and mental and physical effort made them so. It may be noticed that nature does not seem to exist to provide us with the energy we need. We have to extract it ourselves. So it is true for all creatures. In this, oil and gas have little advantage compared to any other energy source except that they are relatively heavily concentrated stores of energy (which can be an advantage or a disadvantage, depending on the structure built to deal with them) and they are portable IF the infrasture is built to make them so, which took decades of intellectual and financial development.
To your reference to the BP Statistical Review and the low amount of energy produced by the renewables, this is absolutely true. The world produces barely as much energy by way of renewables as a percent of all energy consumed as it did in the 1970's. It is not "physics" that dicates this, but simply an almost complete stoppage of development of the renewables for almost three decades. The lack of renewables in energy production is simply a lack of will.
To your more interesting point, "Every alternative incarnation hastens the depletion of energy by the very nature of the pursuit. A photovoltaic device is but oil in another form."
First I am assuming you meant "Every alternative incarnation hastens the depletion of energy" was actually intended to mean "hastens the depletion of oil" or perhaps fossil fuel, because to call a photovoltaic device "but oil in another form" is almost certainly a bit of an overreach. It may involve some oil in it's construction, and or some natural gas, and or some nuclear, hydroelectric or coal. Of course the nuclear, hydroelectric or coal may have some oil in it's extraction/construction, and the food eaten by the workers that built the hydro or the nuclear plant may have some been produced by using some oil and on and on...this is the way in which EROEI is used against the alternatives to the point of infinite regression.
So based on this logic, would we say that no energy producing devices such as solar panels, windmills, or Concentrating Mirror Solar stations should be built, because they do indeed consume some resources?
If that is true, should we not forbid the construction of energy consuming devices such as autos, TV sets, home computers, cell phones, motorcycles, speedboats, washing machines, clothes dryers, on and on and on before we stop the production of energy producing devices such as solar panels, concentrating mirror solar stations and windmills? Do you honestly see that happening in the world? It would mean suicide for whole nations such as Japan, the U.S. and European nations to do so, and do we assume that the newly arrived developing nations would do likewise?
You say,
"My children, and especially my grandchildren, deserve some measured constraint." Is it "measured constraint" to cease the development of energy returning devices while continuing to build energy consuming devices? Because I assure you, even if the U.S. decided to assinate it's economy by taking the ascetic road to building nothing, many other nations would not.
You say,
"We have to embrace the only true long-term solution: power down, get small, go slow, simplify,...just get by. In time, it will be forced upon us anyway."
I think that we should reduce waste to the absolute minimum, yes. I beliew that we can afford in many cases to "go smaller". It used to be called "appropriate scale". Simple where possible is good. But there is a limit to how little we can use before we cease to exist as a culture. There is a reason far exceeding convenience that interstate highways were built, that a national electric grid was built, that a national phone system and internet was built.
Alvin Toffler once pointed out that speed of communication, travel and change are important deciders in the survival of a culture. Go too fast, and the culture flies apart. Go too slow, and it declines into oblivion, unable to retain cohesiveness, soon to be overrun by powers that continue to develop technically, culturally and intellectually. Those cultures that choose to "just get by" do not. They die.
To return to your point about the energy used to construct the renewables, I often ask people a challenging question: Do you believe that the first oil well was built using oil? Do you believe that the first natural gas well was built using natural gas? Do you believe that the first nuclear power plant was built using nuclear power? Does that make sense? Then why would such a standard be placed on the renewables? It is totally non-sensical.
I had on my other now failed computer a photo that was so charming to me, I kept it on my desktop to look at every now and then: It was a photo of an oil hauling ship, from the earliest days of the oil industry. It was not a tanker, in that the oil was still hauled in barrels, loaded by hand from wagons drawn by horses.
The ship was powered by sail.
RC
You are ignoring several very simple and very obvious points that go along with the generalizations you are making: how many people see only collapse, and fire and brimstone collapse, too? How many see that collapse as permanent? How many see a potential collapse as leading to rebirth?
As for the energy, you know well that the issue is not the amount of energy in the system, it is how it is used, how quickly it can be utilized and whether a transition will be smooth or not.
Again, you are caricaturing people, not being objective or fair.
Cheers