219 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread
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219 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread
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GAIA Host Collective
I think it is early to assume Georgia as the "aggressor" here. This IS Russia we're talking about. The bear has awakened from 25 years of hibernation, and he is in a foul temper!
Russia wins, like Iran, by doing nothing.
Note any "allies" coming into help Georgia?
"To bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would put America in the middle of these quarrels. We could be dragged into a confrontation with Russia over Abkhazia, or South Ossetia, or who owns Sebastopol. To bring these ex-republics of the Soviet Union into NATO would be an affront to Moscow not unlike 19th century Britain bringing the Confederate state of South Carolina under the protection of the British Empire.
How would Lincoln’s Union have reacted to that?
With a weary army and no NATO ally willing to fight beside us, how could we defend Georgia if Tbilisi, once in NATO, defied Moscow and invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia — and Russia bombed the Georgian army and capital? Would we declare war? Would we send the 82nd Airborne into the Pankisi Gorge?
Fortunately, Germany is prepared to veto any Bush attempt to put Ukraine or Georgia on a fast track into NATO. But President Bush is no longer the problem. John McCain is.
As Anatol Lieven writes in the Financial Times, McCain supports a restoration of Georgian rule over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. He wants to throw Russia out of the G-8 — and talks flippantly of bombing Iran."
http://www.buchanan.org/blog/?p=975.
The US military is spread thin. Putin unlike Bush is no fool. He knows when to strike and where.
DO NOT forget last winter they cut flows of nat gas. This is serious gamesmanship. I think someone like Boone Pickens is who we need in the drivers seat not these Bush McCain clones.
Putin has been licking his wounds for decades. Russia is ready to reclaim superpower status, with energy control as a key part of the agenda.
Russia wants to put the US on notice that its goal of increasing regional influence and boxing in Russia won't work. I imagine Russia wants the US to drop its missile-shield plan, in exchange for "playing nice" for another few years.
However, if the US doesn't back down gracefully and Russia continues to press Georgia, the US will almost certainly press back somewhere, probably a limited attack on Iran's nuke facilities and air-defense network. Unlike Vietnam, though, where both US and Russian actions had long logistics tails, the Russians are playing much closer to home this time around, and they are in growth mode while the US is struggling. They can needle the US without much effort, while the US will be hard-pressed to increase the force level in the gulf region.
Certainly there is an opportunity for this conflict to increase regional instability, and any of the hot locales could potentially involve a few mega-barrels of oil in production.
Boone Pickens is no Jack Kennedy....
The US would never be able to hold Iraq if the resistance there was given modern man portable anti aircraft and anti tank weapons. Or Afghanistan. We can't press Russia. We broke our own leg, and now want to pick fights. Sigh.
Less angry shaking fists, more brains.
The games played with tanks and troops are the obvious ones. It's the "brainy" ones played with money, influence, favoritism, oppression, trade deals, and so forth that are less visible but more significant long term, and which set the stage for the "bloody" ones.
"played with money, influence, favoritism, oppression,trade deals, and so forth "
None of these suggestions seem realistic to me. Who believes our money will be worth anything? Maybe we will gain some influence AFTER we leave Iraq, but how long after? That will be a long time after this crisis in Georgia is resolved.
The danger for Russia in going down the path of supplying anti tank and anti aircraft weapons to insurgents in Iraq or Afghanistan is that many of those weapons would go back to Russia with Chechyn volunteers.
And if America was bloodied by Russian supplied weapons then they may also up the ante by supplying arms to the Chechyns and others. The Russians could only cut off Europes gas as payback and the yanks wouldn't care (payback for lack of support by Europe).
Hopefully common sense prevails on all sides.
Hopefully common sense prevails on all sides.
---------------------------------------------
Yeah -- if they have a bit more common sense then we probably won't be down the path we are right now. Asking for common sense from these folks is like asking them to lay an egg. It won't happen. There is so much pressure to hold up their ego that once a path is taken, it will take a tremendous effort to reverse it. I don't see Russia backing down -- Georgia will have to declare some sort of concession.
For Georgia to declare some sort of concession would be a sign of defeat and a bruised ego for the Georgian rulers (local and American).
I guess I don't have much hope that the situation will be comprehensivly settled. Any short term concessions are likely to fester as a wound under a bandage would, eventually it gets ripped off in pain with alot of blood shed.
Germany official reason for vetoing the fast track to NATO due to unsettled secessionist conflicts.
If Georgia's leaders were realistic they would recognize that Russia will never allow them to regain control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia (it should be obvious to even a politician now)
If they were to recognize them as independent states Russia would no longer have that lever to manipulate them nor would the EU nations have that excuse to keep them out of their clubs.
Of course seeing how doing this would most likely be the end of that leader's career this would require a leader to put his country's future ahead of his career so it will never happen.