219 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread
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GAIA Host Collective
"Georgia is the aggressor here..."
What part of Russia is Georgia bombing? How many Russian civilians has Georgia killed so far?
I do not pretend to understand everything that is going there, but the reports of Russian bombing of Georgian areas that have nothing to do with South Ossetia tells me that Russia has significantly upped the ante here.
Many South Ossetians carry Russian passports seemingly, so to answer your question, quite a lot probably.
There are about 70,000 South Ossetians and most (by choice) have taken Russian passports. One could argue that if Georgia has the right to be separate from Russia then South Ossetia has the right to be separate from Georgia?
1989 South Ossetia declared its autonomy from Georgia.
1990 Georgia and South Ossetia began an armed conflict.
1992 Russian, Georgian and South Ossetian leaders signed an armistice and agreed the creation of a tripartite peacekeeping force of 500 soldiers from each entity.
2006 South Ossetia overwhelmingly endorses its split with Georgia in a referendum.
7 August 2008 Fighting breaks out between Georgian and separatist South Ossetian forces. Georgia says its forces have "freed" the greater part of the Ossetian capital. Reportedly Russian peacekeepers have suffered 12 dead and 150 wounded.
8 August 2008 Russian forces move into South Ossetia.
IMHO the Georgian offensive has only been made possible by Western military aid. I do not think Russian forces have been involved in any foreign "adventures" since they left Afghanistan in 1989.
According to Georgia, a day before the attack of Geoergia, South Ossetian separatist forces attacked villages in Georgia (Nuli and Avnevi) causing civilian casualties.
Now, it will become increasingly difficult to deduct the truth sitting on a couch when war breaks out. Both sides will used propaganda. It will be difficult to separate truth from outright lies.
As such, I'd not be so quick to judge who is 'right'. In war there usually are no such parties.
The situation is unfortunate and I fear for more casualties. Russia is unlikely to back down and Georgia is being helped by USA (even if it's in the background).
The civilians in-between end up suffering.
Looks like cold war is rearing it's ugly head again in local theaters.
1,500 in the first two days of the conflict, according to several sources on the ground. Note that an estimated 35,000 residents of South Ossetia, or 50% of the area's total population, have already fled to Russia. They know very well what will happen to them if they were to stay on the Georgian side of the border.
We have to remember the caution about the truth being the first casualty of war. I'm sure the Russians are being told (and believing for the most part), about Georgian inflicted casualties. You can bet the Georgians are hearing something else. We won't know the real truth, until sometime after things settle down. It seems to me that both sides have taken overagressive moves. The Georgians for launching the thing. And it looks like the Russians hitting of military targets within Georgia proper, is overly provacative. Meanwhile emotions on both sides are probably spinning out of control.
Very true! It is very hard to determine the exact number of casualties when there is a messy war under way. At the height of the US attack on Yugoslavia, the number of casualties among Albanian civilians in Kosovo was estimated to be as high as 100,000 by the US media, but turned out to be less than 2,000 once the actual bodies were counted.
On the other hand, the basic facts of the Georgian army attacking Tskhinvali and causing the first several hundred casualties, including dozens of Russians peacekeepers that were stationed there since 1992, are not in dispute (although rarely if ever mentioned in the Western media).
It doesn't matter who started it. I mean, the Korean War was started by the South doing raids into the North, trying to provoke them in the hopes that in an all-out war the US would support them in conquering the North.
But who remembers that now?
It is being reported Russia has bombed and devastated a port along the Black Sea that is important for the shipping of energy exports and is close to the Baku-Supsa pipeline and the Supsa oil terminal.It has also been reported Russia has bombed a NATO base!?
Russian brass are aware of America's plan to wipe out Iranian Euro denominated oil trade and are positioning themselves for the big showdown. We all know darn well this is about oil - the plateau in production is about to decline - and all of the major powers are aware of this.Do not be suprised when China makes a move towards war with America (perhaps through attacking Taiwan) and North Korea makes a move on South Korea. All of the political rhetoric aside - this is not a 'conflict' in Georgia - this is a WAR, and it is an axiomatic war over money and oil.
I have this sick feeling inside many civilians are being killed as we post.
I hope all of you realize this is more than just an economic collapse, peak oil, and WW3; the end game calls for control of every human being on the face of the earth, and it will come to pass.
God help us to understand.
This is a possibility. The timing of it all during the Olympics is quite disturbing. It forces China to stand pat unless it gets "crazy" out of control. I think things will stay somewhat contained while the Olympics are progressing. After the Olympics, either Russia will finish up its aggressive phase of this current move and settle down a bit or this thing will have expanded beyond Georgia (signs this morning is that it is NOT being contained...i.e. Ukraine's statement about the Russian navy not being allowed back to port).
China doesn't want war with the US & has no reason to. With their economic growth rate of the last 30 years, and a population over four times as great as the US, the obvious plan is to build economic power until the US is sidelined. Foreign disputes will be confined to those necessary to secure the required natural resources. In this context, Taiwan is actually a method of the US provoking a war with China if & when it decides one is required. The long-standing US policy is to guarantee Taiwan's security, on the proviso that the cross-Strait status quo is maintained. If Taiwan declares independence, the guarantee is voided. All that would be required for the US to change course and move towards war would be for the US to tell the Taiwanese government that the security guarantee would still stand if they declared independence.
Washington received a setback earlier this year, however, when the KMT returned to power in the recent Taiwan elections, ousting the Taiwanese nationalists on a program of lowing the temperature across the Strait of Taiwan. The prospect of Beijing eventually winning over Taiwan peacefully is a reasonable possibility, especially as the deal on offer is an enhancement of the "one country, two systems" one for Hong Kong. The enhancement is that Taiwan gets to retain its own army - a not inconsiderable factor in guaranteeing the "two systems" clause.
North Korea is nobody's pawn and is a rule unto itself. It attempted to get nuclear weapons because it wasn't satisfied with the terms of China's security guarantee, but seems to be backing down. I don't know whether it achieved what it wanted to or not, or whether its objective had more to do with a change in US policy or with improving the guarantee from China.
In any event, North Korea does not plan to invade South Korea. It does have a paranoid government which could easily be provoked into war, but their plan is just survival. Korea had a reputation as the "Hermit Kingdom" for centuries, so it would sit well with the history if the North Korean government just sits there, heavily armed, and tries to wish the rest of the world away.
The US is still the world's most powerful country, but it no longer has the ability to dictate events unilaterally. The European Union has more coherence than it did and, within it, a now-united Germany is a very strong power. More significantly, there is a range of other growing powers - China, Russia, India & Brazil being the most significant, but also a number of medium-sized countries that aren't as poor as they used to be and are a fair bit tougher to push around. Against any one of them, or even a small number, the US will prevail. If the US gets them all off-side, however, it can't win. It's a tough lesson for the Masters of the Universe in Washington - and toughest of all for the neo-cons who dreamt so gloatingly of a New American Century. What worries me is the thought of what they might do if, in a state of denial, they maintain “business as usual” on the foreign policy front.
In terms of my perspective on events, I condemn both sides in this war. The Ossetians who, like all peoples, have the right of national self-determination, have aligned themselves with Russia for reasons which are unclear and will probably bring them no benefit. The Russian government is manipulating the Ossetians shamelessly and cynically and is being extremely violent. The Georgian government is engaged in its own national chauvinism in refusing the right of the Ossetians to secede and is being violent towards the Ossetians. And the US & European powers are playing power politics for the sake of oil & gas.
Russian warplane has dropped two bombs on the Vaziani military base outside Tbilisi
http://www.caucaz.com/home_eng/depeches.php?idp=1930&PHPSESSID=71795c95f...
Though not a NATO base this is the base where 1000 U.S. troops were based during Immediate Response 2008 last month.
Thankyou for that bit of info.
It sounded a bit alarming when I heard this from a fairly reliable source - hence the question mark.I was hoping some one would verify.