I always click on the "haven't you heard?..." option. My prediction is correct every time because it's unfalsifiable. On any given day the dollar is either rising or falling. If I cherry pick the events, I can explain the change in oil price every time! :)

I was one of those who was wrong on the last poll after being right on several polls.

The commodities markets have broke down and need to find support. This is not only true of crude oil but also ethanol. Likewise grains confirm the reversal in that corn and soybeans as well as other grains have broken down. While the grains are not like crude oil they are somewhat related in that corn is used for ethanol and soybeans for biodiesel.

The economy is clearly in recession with auto makers in free fall and a local company Winnebago Industries dumping workers and putting many on shorter working hours.

The Rule in speculation, and that is what trend following is mostly, is to go with the trend. And when the trend reverses do not go into denial. Just accept it and follow it until it reverses which it will just as the uptrend reversed. Down is quicker as all the longs panic to get out of their wrong positions.

It may take some time for this downtrend to reverse since a new bottom has to be formed. It seems to me that harvest lows in the grains and the election of Barack Obama as President may put in the low. The Fed is impotent as is the oblivious lame duck President and Congress.

Overextended people who are living hand to mouth are in shock just like the banks and both are in survival mode.

Baring hurricanes and war this downtrend may last awhile.

These were my comments on July 23. I think I called it very well:

"I have been an oil investor since the 1990's. I believe in peak oil. Over 50% of my porfolio was in oil and gas I have been greatly rewarded...

Last week I sold about 20% of my oil investments.

I sold shares in a natural resource fund that I have owned for a long time. Ten years ago I was buying the shares for $7. I sold for $42 I didn't quite get the top of $46. In Febuary, in the middle of the SoGen crisis, I was buying oil and gas mutual funds for $18 a share. I sold for $24. A very nice return for 5 months.

Sometimes you are so far ahead that you just have to take profits.

There is demand destruction out there. We have all sorts of stories about parked cars, increased transit use, etc...Higher interest rates and an economy in long term reccession may push the price of oil even lower. Who needs gas to get to a job, when you have been laid off? Better to spend the money on food, seeds and insulation.

I think I will be able to buy all my shares back with oil at $115. I will buy them back in small lots at a lower price. I think the Saudis will cut production at $100 and definitely at $80. They want to preserve their resources for future generations.

$80 to $115 could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime."

Today on August 11, I think we will see lower prices.

In the short term, the price of oil can be about more than just supply and demand. I can be about interest rates and the strength of the dollar.

When real interest rates are negative, commodites are a great play. You lose if you sit in bonds. When the Fed really starts to raise rates, oil prices often drop.

Recently I saw an interview with a Fed banker. He said the Fed was willing to raise rates, even in the face of declining house prices. That's an amazingly strong statement.

I think things have already changed. Higher interest rates will cause the world economy will decline even further and it will require less oil.

Investors who have been forced into commodities by low interest rates will see new higher interest rates and make the jump to short-term bonds and the dollar.

If a hedge fund made 30% in commodity speculation in the first part of the year, they will be tempted take profits and be happy to sit on short term bonds for rest of the year and end with an easy 35% to 40%.

I also think some American Banks are liquidating commodities and oil stocks because they need the money to stay afloat. The market is being sold all at once.

I think this is happening now. Some of those oil winnings are even making it back into speculation in the U.S stock market.

All those discussions about Chinese and Indian demand, will matter less as those countries have benifited greatly from selling goods to America. Demand from other countries will not make up for the decline in demand from America. The American consumer is tapped out from the housing crisis.

In the short term, think oil will go lower. Let's see if the Saudi's cut production at $100. I will not buy back in until $95. I am going to lighten up in other areas and have lots of money ready incase we get $80 or less in panic selling.

Long-term, I love secure, dependable Canadian oil companies as an investment, but I want to buy them at bargin prices when the newest speculators are scared silly by all the selling.

Of course, Israel or Iran could change everything in an instant. That's why only sold 20% of my oil holdings back when prices were so high.

Gold just dropped another $20+ to just a hair over $800/oz.

That's about 7% in less than a day. Commodities don't look like they're ready to turn around.