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145 comments on DrumBeat: August 10, 2008
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GAIA Host Collective
Positive (or Negative) Price Elasticity of Transportation Supply
I have developed the following concept, but I am not sure about the name or description.
The basic concept is the marginal cost vs. the average cost of different transportation modes as they are enlarged. To illustrate:
With roads a 33% increase in capacity will often cost (in either congestion or capital costs) as much as the inflation adjusted price of the original capacity. The more we use roads, the more they cost The average costs increase with volume because the marginal cost is higher than the historic average cost.
OTOH, both Urban Rail and Inter-City freight and passenger rail have marginal capacity costs much below the average costs. Railroads can increase capacity with improved ROW improvements (faster track with improved curves & track quality), better signals, more passing sidings, electrification and double tracking (x3 to x4 the capacity of single tracks). These same improvements also increase the speed and reliability of shipments. with general economic benefits.
Urban Rail can add more cars to trains, decrease headways between trains and simply crowd the trains more. Only the Lexington Avenue subway in the USA is currently at ultimate capacity (building the parallel 2nd Avenue subway should be a priority). Adding cars, adding trains (Moscow subway has 90 second headways !) and adding pax to trains (see Tokyo subway pushers for extreme limits); all are MUCH cheaper than building all new lines.
The more we use rail, the lower the average costs
I hope that I have explained the concept well enough (which is interesting and important in a post-Peak Oil economy) but is there a better name ?
Thanks,
Alan
Hi Alan,
Interesting, but I for one need more convincing. A few questions, some are rhetorical:
Aren't you tilting the comparison by constraining road to no incremental investment? What about road-integrated incremental investment like the Bogota Transmilenio?
Do you have lateral (non-cherrypicked) historical data to demonstrate your thesis? Any good counterexamples? Why is commuter rail travel in London such an expensive and miserable experience, and why does it only ever seem to get worse?
How does this model work for other transport modes, including ones that no longer exist (at least in the West)?
Did you get a chance to look at the McKay sustainable-energy book yet, by the way?
PUD
I was talking about incremental investment. Increasing I-10 West in Houston to 14 lanes (# from memory) by buying the old KATY RR ROW. adding freeway lanes just about anywhere has higher incremental costs (even 4 lanes > 6 lanes for rural interstates typically costs more than half of the inflation adjusted original 4 lanes, although not dramatically more and some contra examples exist for rural interstates. From memory 6 lanes carry about ~45% more traffic than 4 lanes. Increased lane changes are the reason given).
I personally hate BRT (as least as promoted by GWB). I have ridden the Lex at the tail end of the rush hour (8:40 AM or so) and it was MUCH better than the worst public transit experience I have ever had. The southern terminus of the Miami Metro (extraordinarily pleasant view, the orange-red trees were in bloom, all else nice) transfers to BRT on a bus & official vehicles only busway. Desperately crowded, smelly armpits (it was June from memory) raised all around as the bus jerks and rolls like overloaded buses do, with a/c less than needed. And the GWB administration points to how much cheaper and successful this particular BRT was than extending Metrorail further south.
I noted a mixed crowd on MetroRail, but the last of the apparently middle class people walked towards the Park & Ride at the southern terminus and only a subset waited for the BRT.
There is a place for BRT, but a small place.
Alan
I'm sure there something useful in your model, but we won't get to it by quoting our favorite and unfavorite road and rail journeys at each other (Guilty, Yer Honner). Is it fair to compare 1->2 track rail with a 4->6 lane highway upgrade? Shouldn't we be looking at 1->2 (roads and rail with sidings or turn-offs) or 4->6 for both modes? Are there any long-distance 6-track rail corridors anywhere in the world? Isn't it simply the case (as someone mentioned) that dual-track standard-gauge rail was hugely overspecified for the needs of 150 years ago, and now we have a fair amount of legacy single track that can be upgraded at relatively modest cost because the ROW is wide enough for 2 or 3 tracks, or can easily be enlarged because it's in remote areas?
I'm about to relocate to a job in the suburbs of pre-WW1 megacity. My plan is to live in a walkable central neighborhood with redundant rail links to my place of work (reverse commute), and to manage without a car. So I'm on your side: I just think you could make your case better - and I'm sure you will.
TOD is a good place to whet one's arguments. But I am about to walk to a very nice restaurant for lunch with friends.
Canal Street in New Orleans had 6 to 8 streetcar tracks in it's heyday, but it was rationalized down to 4 tracks, which was adequate.
More than 4 tracks have existed at times, but I cannot think of a case where more than 4 tracks was every needed. Powder River coal basin is triple tracked and adding a 4th track in spots.
A 4 track railroad can carry a LOT of anything !
Best Hopes for Rail,
Alan
"Urban Rail can...simply crowd the trains more."
And maybe that politically expedient way of adding capacity helps account for its still-negligible overall US market share, outside of New York City. Have you ever ridden the Lexington Avenue subway in from Brooklyn during rush hour? Who in their right mind wants to do that every day? Who in their right mind wants to live where they have to do that every day? And try it on a sizzling August day when the power goes out and the jampacked train gets stuck for an hour or two with no ventilation. And good luck getting the MTA to foot the hospital bill for the heat prostration. (Well, OK, granted, a few people feel they just must live in New York City, and for a few of those few, it's actually true, although what really keeps the Lex full is immigration, legal and otherwise - same as the Paris Metro and some other rail systems across the world. And anyway nobody ever said that Brooklynites are in their right minds...)
'Who in their right mind wants to do that every day?'
If you're looking for a memorable quote, Yogi got there first.
Clearly it's more than a 'Few' people, and they seem to come back, day after day. Yes, it's obnoxious, uncomfortable and exhausting. But they keep finding it useful enough to fill it up.
As for aspersions of 'other than legal' immigrants.. it looks like you're running for office somewhere.. those trains are used by everyone. Fancy and Trashy, Rich and Poor, American and Otherwise.
Who wants to do that every day? Maybe people whose other options have become unsupportable.
Or maybe, in at least some cases, just people too unimaginative or dimwitted to consider other options. It's a huge country, after all - Manhattan and downtown Brooklyn are only a very, very tiny part of it despite the image in the cartoon. But then again: "No one in this world so far as I know—and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people." (—H.L. Mencken, Chicago Daily Tribune, September 19, 1926)
As to the occupants of the trains, it's not just an American thing. One of my 'favorite' occurrences was the time when a couple of us got to the platform on the Paris Metro (RATP), and nothing was moving. Soon they announced (in French only, naturally, and well-garbled by the typical cheapskate PA system found on subways the world over) that service was discontinued (with no estimated time for restarting, and most likely due to a routine bomb threat but who knows.) So almost everyone just stood there obliviously as though their train was still about to arrive. Nobody there to speak of but tourists and immigrants from the Maghreb, none of them giving any sign of understanding any French. After all, the long-time natives were busy burning expensive fuel by clogging up the surface streets to near gridlock, as always. So we just left along with a few others, and took an RER train to the general area where we were going.
That's what I used to do, when I worked in NYC.
They would announce that no trains were running, and that people should take buses or whatever.
But no one believed them. They just said that to get people out of Grand Central. With the trains delayed, there were so many people backed up in the station that it was a fire hazard. So they'd say anything to get people out of the station.
Savvy commuters knew that, so they'd wait anyway, and usually the trains would be running again in an hour or two.
Actually, when we got to our RER destination, the RATP line still wasn't running. In Paris, at least, they really meant it. NYC, though, has a real problem at Grand Central, and the parallel Metro North (rough RER equivalent) line is not useful for local transportation. That's why they need the Second Avenue Subway, the one that's been mired in political corruption for, oh, the least 60 or 70 years, bonded several times and still not finished. It was even worse when they were running four-car trains to 'save money', as the platforms became packed and dangerous; maybe that's when you were working there?
An hour or two? And trains are to be our transportation salvation? What do you do with your evening plans when you're two hours late getting back home? Who gets the kids fed and off to baseball practice?
Heck, I hate waiting on a PLANE that's 2 hours late once a month, let along a train that I'd use daily.
In NYC, you either get used to it, or you leave. I left.
A lot of people have to pick up their kids from daycare. These places usually have very hefty fines for being late.
New Yorkers are used it.
Even if you drive, you run the risk of major and unpredictable delays, because the traffic is so heavy. So there's a lot of tolerance built into scheduling. (Indeed, you are more likely to be on time if you take public transportation.) They're really just a lot more laid back about punctuality there. I kind of liked it, frankly.
I'm not sure what your point is. That train breakdowns suck? Here's a hint: trains in other countries (except Britain) don't break down. Are the Brooklyn subways running a full 22 trains an hour, like the ones in Hong Kong or Tokyo? Where are you commuting from and to? Brooklyn Heights to Wall Street is one whole stop, about eight minutes. Cry me a river.
I used to live in Jersey City, and commuted to Wall Street using the decrepit old PATH system. Even so, it was very nice to live only two stops (ten minutes) from work, and not have to drive.
I have also lived 42 miles from New York, in a coastal suburb. It took me 90 minutes each way to get to work (on the train). Who in their right minds wants to do that every day?
I suppose part of my point is that most of the older train systems in this country suck rather badly, so who is going to vote to subsidize more of the awful same, and why should they? After all, people in upstate New York have been fed up for a very long time with pouring money down the New York City rathole, in return for nothing. And Alan's proposals for 'saving money' by making train systems suck even more badly only make this little part of the matter even worse. In the end, unless you are one of the very few whose occupation truly requires it, why even bother trying to live and work in a corrupt, crime-ridden, dysfunctional, massively overpopulated place like New York City, Chicago, or Los Angeles, at all?
Well, if you're gay, black or leftist you might feel safer in those places than, say, Laramie, Wyoming, where Matthew Shepard was beaten to death and hung on a fence in 1998.
And since the GOP white suburbs would not even exist without the pinko welfare negro cities you so clearly despise, moving to the suburbs is no national alternative, Kunstler's arguments aside.
As for corruption, the drug routes into America have corrupted many whitebread towns, and it will get worse, though not reported.
Most of all, as the book "What's the Matter With Kansas" points out, rural red-state America is getting poorer. If you require an occupation that pays more than $10 an hour, the cities (and ports) remain the gateway to the middle class that they have always been. My friend Mike, who worked dual jobs at the University of Houston as a mass-communications instructor and a systems tech (pretty bright), could not find a decent job when he moved to Hays, Kansas due to his wife's faculty job, and ended up as a salesman at a stereo store. Now he's back at UH and clearing 50 grand. As far as he could ascertain, Hays had no use for intelligent people at all.
A couple of points... it has been quite a number of years since upstate NY has been subsidizing downstate NY. The flow of tax receipts, AFIK, reversed with the decline of manufacturing and population exodus from upstate; two-third of the population is downstate, too. Try riding transit in a city or country where it works well (try Switzerland sometime). It is a national priority and it is designed by smart people and run by a conscientious work force. The reason rail and transit does work in the US is two-fold -- we spend too much of GDP on non-productive pursuits (e.g., military, prisons, medical, etc) and the TPTB do not want functional mass transit or rail because it would kill their sprawl machine.
Alan's proposals for 'saving money' by making train systems suck even more badly
Serial mis-characterization, but on this point, tighter headways IMPROVES service, longer trains is basically neutral from a service POV (great for economics) and only packing more people on-board makes service worse (but FAR better to be crowded on a train than a bus, due to motions & vibrations).
Alan
To be fair, mass transit in general and people on trains (especially shared rail) would have to get a lot better, but that shouldn't be THAT hard to do.
Testimonials, good or bad, pale compared to statistics, but my limited experience on public transit is:
- airport trams are slow and bumpy, but reliable and fairly deterministic
- the Metro in DC works pretty well, if you plan your hotel properly. Every public place (conference or tourist site) I needed to go seemed to be easier by Metro than by car. If I lived there I don't think I'd have a car, but I'd choose my situation carefully.
- the subway/train in Atlanta works fine from the airport to downtown and the mall area up north. Wandering off the tourist part of downtown was kinda scary at night. Otherwise it worked fine.
- buses in Atlanta are slow, late, and crowded. They fit for "adventure" and "vacation" but I'd prefer not to depend on them daily.
- street cars in SF are fine for where they go. The passengers are the most interesting in the world, so far as I can tell. I've never had more fun walking a city than there. BART seemed to work fine for the one time I rode it, but it was just for fun. If I lived in SF I don't think I'd even have a car.
- the NO buses and street cars I rode were just for sight-seeing and fun, and they seemed unobjectionable.
- trains in Europe (the low countries) seemed business like and efficient. That was a long time ago, though.
All in all, I like trains for leisure trips, and sometimes even for simple business trips (like conventions, where you have the airport and a convention center, and maybe some local dining). Usually there is always a sales guy with car if you need a ride, anyway.
I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable having my sixteen year old daughter take a sibling or two across town on a bus or train, though. I've had enough weirdos next to me that I can't imagine what life as a cute girl would be like. Ditto with walking in some downtown areas.
I think dedicated rail, or passenger trains get priority, a firm commitment to timeliness (better than the airlines, for sure!), clean trains, and highly visible security would be important to me. Surely this is all possible?
I am puzzled. "Highly visible security" ? WHY ?
Alan
Well, maybe my mid-US experience is atypical, but here single women (alone or in pairs) will not go "downtown" near the bus station unescorted day or night, and I saw few single women on the Atlanta Metro except during busy daytime hours. Downtown Atlanta, though, was alive from early until late, and seemed to meet some psychological "safeness" threshold, as single women were prevalent, even at night.
But I also observed there were a LOT of "offical" people around (many with radios), helping with directions, sweeping up litter, watering trees, and so forth, plus a good smattering of cops.
Here suburban shopping malls pass muster, and of course suburban restaurants and mostly their parking lots do as well, but mall parking lots, Walmart lots, and other more desolate area don't at night. There is some density of people, lighting, and visible security that is needed, IMHO.
My wife and daughter have corroborated these biases, and I've noticed long-term that restaurants, clubs, and theaters in the "questionable" areas generally fail quickly after opening (except donut and sandwich shops that are open only during the daytime hours). My observation is that guys go spend money where unescorted girls can be found, and such girls are found only where they feel "safe".
Heck, there were places in SF, Atlanta, NO, and DC where I didn't really feel safe walking alone, and there are few who'd want to carry me off for unspeakable deeds! Mostly I was fine on the trains/trams, but there were a couple of times when crazy people made me uncomfortable. My favorite was the guy who was muttering "Shall I kill them? Should I kill them?........No....No...Should I?.......No...NO...." Then he jumped up, screamed at the top of his lungs, and jumped off the streetcar while it was moving at a decent clip, only to get back on his feet and take off running.
I don't think any of my daughters would be comfortable riding that line after something like that.
I realize I'm not a typical urban commuter, but I suspect my biases are not unusual at all.
Your thoughts?
Statistically, transit is uniformly the safest part of a city. But Suburbanites seem to demand armed security form the "Other".
TriRail is the South Florida commuter rail line (Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale & Miami) and I was shocked to see the conductors packing pistols. Miami has a gadgetbahn (MetroMover) going from one office building to another downtown and the "armed presence" at every station was oppressive and unpleasant to me.
Pre-Katrina New Orleans streetcars ran 24 hours/day and I "too often" caught the 3 AM or so streetcar and enjoyed being part of the party at the streetcar stop opposite Bourbon Street waiting for the every 30 minutes streetcar. Relatively few women party alone, but many get off work late at night and take the streetcar home (and a few come to work at 2 or 3 AM).
New Orleans has long been tolerant of the mentally ill (we get the Tourette Syndrome conference every other year because we are the most Tourette friendly city) and I really do not have a problem with them (more likely to reach out and help if I see a good opportunity).
I was once, and only once, robbed at gunpoint, by two clean cut early 20s white guys. One in an Izod and the other in a buttondown shirt. That experience has certainly made me quite leary of Suburbanites !
You never know when they will pull a gun on you !
Best Hopes for Less Fear of Strangers#,
Alan
# Clean cut middle class guys excepted :-P
I've never claimed to like strangers (or non-strangers, mostly!), but to be fair my most personable wife does, and she is far more concerned about such environments than I.
Funny you should say that about armed suburbanites. I was just thinking, "Hmm...maybe it wouldn't be so bad if I were armed?"
Once long ago though, I was part of a rails-to-trails movement, and faced many completely irrational fears from rural farmers, so I can your side too. "Dope dealers from the city will push drugs to our kids". "Crime at night" etc. Of course, most recreational cyclists are affluent 20 or 30-somethings, most drug-dealers aren't going to ride 40 miles to sell some dope, and most rural kids are much more likely to see meth or pot locally than city dealers. The biggest risk for rural communities would be selling out of flapjacks and juice at noon on Saturday when the weekend riders wanted to take a break.
So I realize my possible irrationalities, but it'll take some time for my biases to relax. I spent almost a decade living downtown, and I gotta say suburbia is MUCH better living here than downtown (midtown is OK though). Maybe that will change too, someday?
To quote former local reporter Hoda Kotb, interviewed by her former station when she got the "extra hour" NBC Today Show gig,
"There is New Orleans, then San Francisco and then New York City. The rest of America is just McDonalds".
I walked to a superb, but little known, restaurant in a 1750s building (the former Jesuit hospital outside town) Le Citron Bistro for lunch today with friends. The waiter has a PhD in Social Work and does this for extra money (and social interaction) (He is also gay, wears a yarmulke and keeps kosher). The chef works for the City of New Orleans emergency management (former Military Intelligence) and comes out and chats after the last dish is served. Olympics and Georgia were the topics today, but also a bit of everything. The chef had some good insights on Georgia.
Warm, intelligent and entertaining conversation between strangers & friends (although I am no longer a stranger to the staff but my friends were) coupled with great food (I got the BEST fried green tomatoes I have every had as an appetizer. A good dark rue Shrimp & Sausage okra Gumbo) and a truly unique atmosphere.
I have a hard time imaging a better (and longer) Sunday lunch. What does Suburbia have to offer that compares ?
Best Hopes for Truly Enjoying Life,
Alan
I'm sure that these kinds of places exist in other rural states, but in many places in Arkansas there are little diners in the middle of practically nowhere that cater to the local folk, travelers, and bikers. Some really good home-cooked style food can be found in these joints, in some of the most unexpected places. I was riding my motorcycle and came across this place in a town I can't even remember that was by the Mulberry River somewhere near Ozone, AR. The town had to have a mere 300-400 residents, but there was this gas station with a diner and mercantile store inside. The food was great (greasy spoon type) and lots of locals and bikers there.
These kinds of places have had more business lately as the locals decide to go there instead of driving further in to town when they don't want to cook, and I've noticed more people doing motorcycle riding for mini vacations instead of going somewhere in a car/RV/flying. It makes for friendly people, great food, and a good relaxing time. :)
is there a better name
It seems to me a variation on absolute and marginal returns. Gail can name it better. Roads, once built, incur huge costs to add beyond the original capacity. That might well put them into the realm of diminishing absolute returns, not only diminishing marginal returns. Rail would suffer the same problem - as the Lexington subway - but most rail of that sort is far enough under capacity to still be in the area of increasing marginal returns. There's a chapter about this in Tainter.
I suspect this issue of diminishing absolute returns underlies much of the turmoil in our economic world. Anytime we come up with a "solution" that makes matters worse, that suggests to me a case of diminishing absolute returns. Not enough oil? Drill more. Not enough fish? More boats. Not enough firewood? More loggers.
At first as a resource is exploited, returns are good. Sometimes ramping up increases efficiencies and returns are even better. Absolute and marginal returns increase. At a certain point the effort matches the return. Then it gets harder and marginal returns fall. Then absolute returns fall and it is no longer worth catching any sturgeon. Costs go through the roof. Very much related to EROI too.
cfm in Gray, ME
Your premise, which seems sound, would indicate that for many energy technologies there will be a utilization curve with an inflection point at which marginal returns become negative, a point of maximum effective utilization, and perhaps another point at which the technology fails. For oil, there was a point at which EROEI started to decrease (likely there was short curve when it actually increased, as drilling technology matured), the familiar peak oil production point, and a point at which EROEI becomes less than 1.
This would imply that society needs to be mindful of the inflection point and peak point and start transitioning to another technology that still has positive-growth of ROEI. Wind and solar would seem to be candidates, as they have yet to really reach their economies of scale, but NG and coal are probably not, as they're already well into the EROEI decline phase. Nuke is probably past its inflection point too, with some externalities being included.
The problem is that these second-derivative points are not very momentous to a casual observer, though the first-derivative peaks will be. Once we pass the inflection point everybody subtly notices that they're pedaling faster to keep up, but it's not yet clear that they're getting behind until the peak happens.
One of the problems at least in the US is that energy has got mixed up with political ideology. Want to consume more fossil fuel at a faster rate, thats a conservative stand. Want to consume less, and build up renewable alternatives, thats a staple of the left. Once an issue is seen as potentially giving an advantage to one side or another in a bitter culture war, the ability to do rational analysis goes out the window. What you instead get are politically determined positions backed up by rationalizations.
I think you are right...I suspect the same phenomena affects Climate Change.
Good points.
However, I think the next generation of USA nukes will have higher EROEI than the existing nukes.
Better thermodynamics is part of it, efficiencies of scale and standardization another (almost every nuke site had a unique design before today). And MANY nukes were abandoned partially complete (and a few shut down early in their lives). All wasted energy and effort with zero to show for a 20% or 74% completed nuke that is scrapped. And scrapping after a dozen years of generation is not good either.
Best Hopes for Better Built Nukes, built at economic rates,
Alan
Rail does not generate energy per se, but the EROEI of rail improvements is outstanding. The useful lives of rail improvements are often quite long. The tunnels blasted and dug out by Chinese laborers for the first Trans-Continental railroad are still largely in use. I took the 1897 subway to ASPO-Boston. Perhaps half of the original investment is still in use.
The new 58 km TransAlp twin tunnels that Switzerland is drilling to create a flat straight path between Zurich and Milan under the Alps (two shorter tunnels of 10 & 20 km also needed) will certainly take a lot of energy to build, but how long will they last ? The infrastructure (signals, rail bed, power supply, etc.) are designed for 100 years before major maintenance. The tunnel bore may get Roman aqueduct lifespans.
Long-term investments pay-off a lot better when cheap replacements (fueled by cheap money and cheap energy) cannot be had, and ongoing investment is small.
I've noticed that there are many examples of old, durable, but inefficient designs being replaced by new, throwaway, but more efficient models. A new high-eff washing machine will pay for it's replacement in five years in energy savings alone versus the 20-year old model its replacing, but you'll need a replacement in about five years.
There has to be a changing factor in time-value-of-money calculations from peak energy that will push us back toward long-term investments and durability. In the case of the washing machine above, obviously what is needed is an energy-efficient machine that will also last 20 years like the older models did. As energy and money both get more expensive, durability of all products will need to increase.
I've often wondered if designers in the past really built stuff to last rather than that it was just more economic to build simple, low-precision designs that have the side-effect of being more durable. I remember seeing on TV a couple of years ago a documentary that said that, during the introduction of railroads to America the American trains used steam boilers based on the designs from the initial British designs rather than the latest, more efficient designs being used in Britain. The reason wasn't backwardness in the Americans but that given the lesser quality of American iron smelting compared to British iron smelting at that time the simpler designs were more reliable and cost effective to produce. The point is that clever designs adapt themselves to the available manufacturing capability. For example, I wonder if design for repairability will become more important than brute force durability?
Well, certainly the design you get reflects the design goals you state. Engineers can be terribly clever at optimizing a design, though there of course reality limits.
I have long noted that most designs optimize first-cost rather than lifecycle-cost, and that hurts us terribly long-term (especially in a downturn where you may lack the resources you had at the outset). For example, houses are built to maximize square footage per dollar first and then aesthetics. Energy economy takes a distant back seat. Orientation of the houses is based on development layouts that maximize the number of salable lots. Time and again it has been proven that properly-oriented, efficiency-maximizing houses cost hardly any more to build, save on energy forever, and are more pleasant to live in, yet the design goals don't change (to be honest, for some energy efficient houses beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but that perception too will change when the time comes!).
With sophisticated engineering, we should be able to improve efficiency, durability, and maintainability without much initial cost, though it will cost a little. Note that Honda and Toyota achieved this versus GM, Ford, and even Nissan, who all had varying cost and feature advantages but are now losing out to efficiency and reliability. I do think modern cars are currently less maintainable than older cars, and that is a problem that could still be addressed.
I think that in the past people were generally not as wealthy and thus expected things to be built to last or at least be able to be repaired easily rather than replacing them. Once people could afford to replace things then companies were only too happy to help them out by promoting more rapid replacement of models.
See the story of stuff, a 20 minute video.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/
Now there seems to be very little consideration of repairability and durability over a long term. Many parts are plastic and these often break after a couple of years and spare parts cannot be bought. I find it difficult to believe that this is not intentional. I think we need to make all consumer goods have a 20 year life span and built to be easily repaired not thrown away. As a good start all Miele washing machines, tumble dryers and washer dryers are designed and tested for 20 years average use.
Along similar lines energy efficiency of domestic appliances is not a major concern since people mainly just look at the up-front price and appearance. I am pressing for an "efficiency tax" on electrical devices over their working life that is equal to the cost of offsetting the electricity (CO2) down to the level of the best performing devices. This will encourage people to buy A class devices.
Nukes would have miserable EROEI if the energy required to babysit the waste for millennia is factored in.
Solar energy doesn't make liquid fuels (nuclear reactors don't either) but solar energy doesn't generate ultrahazardous materials that pose proliferation threats, require police state surveillance and poison your great-great-great-great-great grandchildren.
If nuclear energy is an "answer," then the question is wrong.
Don't have the link, but there was a recent story about the cost of dealing with waste or decomissioning... forget which... had gone up to 98 billion or something....
Ah... here it is. How does this change the kw/h?
Cheers
Assuming 100 plants generating a gigawatt each over twenty years, roughly $0.005 additional per kilowatt-hour. Here in the North East, I am sure we will see several times this electrical rate increase this winter, as people substitute cheaper electricity for expensive fuel oil to heat their homes.
Hoping for minimal blackouts and brownouts, and staying warm this winter,
Everett
Why? Sealing it in dry storage casks doesn't take much energy, even if you have to reseal them every couple of centuries. In a couple of centuries I'd expect we'd start using the stuff for fuel (and fission platinum group metals like rhodium) again anyways, so it sort of takes care of itself. The fretting about waste is a nonsequiter popular in the press, but theres precious little evidence that its an actual problem.
My favorite solution that I've heard is to bury nuclear waste under the billions of tonnes of chemical waste no one cares about.
No, theres no toxic materials involved in solar energy production at all. And mercury eventually becomes less toxic after time to I imagine.