The Oil Drum | Georgia Conflict

227 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #2

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shargash on August 11, 2008 - 10:48am

Georgia has asked for a cease-fire

Georgia declared a unilateral cease fire a couple days ago, then attacked 12 hours later, after the South Ossetians agreed to the case fire. The only reason Georgia is calling for one now is because they're losing. I don't look for the Russians to pay it any heed whatsoever.

The big question is whether Saakashvili is another US proxy who over-estimated US support (q.v. Saddam Hussein), or whether the US put him up to the attack to distract the Russians prior to some sort of operation against Iran. If it is the latter, it would keep the Bush administrations perfect record of being behind every war of this millenium.

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mcgowanmc on August 11, 2008 - 11:01am

"The big question is whether Saakashvili is another US proxy who over-estimated US support (q.v. Saddam Hussein), or whether the US put him up to the attack to distract the Russians prior to some sort of operation against Iran."

"But Russians view the international war that broke up Yugoslavia as a practice run for breaking up the Russian Caucasus, first by arming the Chechen secessionist Dzhokar Dudayev; then by financing anti-Russian terrorism in the Russian provinces of Chechnya and Ingushetia; and now by the Georgian military thrust against South Ossetia.

Since the US and the European Union have so recently compelled Serbia to accept the Albanian takeover of Serbia's Kosovo province, the overwhelming Russian view is that this will not be allowed to happen again. "Ossetia is not Kosovo" is a widespread refrain in Moscow today.

"If [former Yugoslav president] Slobodan Milosevic should be put on trial, the opinion here is - so too should Saakashvili," says a leading Moscow analyst. "

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH12Ag02.html

The US/NATO/Israel must do something soon.

Israel gets 20% of it's oil from the BTC and Azerbaijan.

And now zero oil is flowing thru Georgia.

Russia will squeeze Georgia to continue this until it
get s control of the BTC.

Those with the power to destroy have the ultimate power.

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shargash on August 11, 2008 - 11:24am

Funny, but I would put S. Ossetia on the other side of the Kosovo analogy. Like Kosovo, it wants autonomy from its ethnically distinct parent (Georgia). It was specifically the example of Kosovo that encouraged the S. Ossetians to break away in the first place. But with typical two-faced US policy, splitting Kosovo off from Serbia was good (because we don't like Serbia), but splitting off S. Ossetia from Georgia is bad (because we like Georgia).

I've read that something like 90% of the South Ossetians hold Russian passports. They'd be much happier being part of Russia than Georgia. Saakashvili attacked 12 hours after suckering the South Ossetians into a cease fire, and the attack killed a bunch of Russian troops.

Given the treacherous attack, the sentiments of South Ossetia, and the way the US has been trying to use Georgia against Russia, I wouldn't expect the Russians to stop until they've secured S.O. and given the Georgian's a thorough drubbing, and they may require Saakashvili's removal before they'll stop.

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karlof1 on August 11, 2008 - 6:48pm

Just a note about the Atimes citation, the Chechens and Dudayev armed themselves from USSR armories and declared independence long before any US or UK diplomat could find Chechnya on a map or undertsand its importance enough to provide it support. That the BTC was taken out by the PKK days before the attack, also raises questions about PKK-Russian ties.

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1929crash on August 11, 2008 - 12:33pm

I think you may be right about this being a cover for a possible strike against Iran

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souperman2 on August 11, 2008 - 12:46pm

"SPECIAL REPORT: Kuwait Readying for War in Gulf?"

http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/08/11/special_report_kuwait_re...

"The small oil-rich emirate of Kuwait – situated between Iraq, Iran and an un-enviable geographic hard place on the northern end of the Persian Gulf – has reportedly activated its "Emergency War Plan" as a massive U.S. and European armada is reported heading for the region."

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iandoug on August 12, 2008 - 5:51am

I read the comments in this thread with amazement... I guess not being in the US, I was spared the US version of events in the MSM.

However the alternative press paints a different picture... the Georgia event needs to be seen as the start of the Iranian campaign proper (or, WW III as some say).

Some URLs for your reading pleasure:

08/08/08 The Beginning of the Summer Olympics and the Third World War
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/080808-beginning-of-summer-oly...

Massive US Naval Armada Heads For Iran
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/massive-us-naval-armada-heads-...

Global Research
http://www.globalresearch.ca/

in particular:

Bush's War in Georgia; Will it be the Flyswatter or the Blunderbuss?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9791

Putin would not be wagging his finger in Bush's face before leaving the Olympics if this was a Russian-planned event.

His problem now is how to save the situation while dealing with the planned attack on Iran without ending up looking like Hitler II in western eyes. I've been watching Putin for a long time ... initially I didn't trust him, but over the years I've come to see just how smart he really is... and able and willing to do what is necessary for his country.

Remember there is a much bigger money/power game going on behind the scenes, we just get to see some occasional moves but are ignorant of the rest.

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