<Should EROEI be the most important criterion our society uses to decide how it meets its energy needs? The Oil Drum DrumBeat: August 21, 2008>

156 comments on Oil Demand Destruction & Brittle Systems

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jeffvail on August 20, 2008 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I was thinking of "break" and "shatter" on a civilizational level, but I think you raise an important point that applies across scale--the ability to reconstitute (break) vs. irreparability (shatter). Ultimately, it may be an accumulation (or coincidence) of multiple systems shattering that leads to civilizational failure in the energy arena.

While, generally, the electric grid may be easier to restart than the gas grid (and other examples), there are important exceptions to this as well. Hydropower, especially in some regions, represent a critical "black start" capability because they require no (or very little) electricity supplied to them in order to start generating. This is not the case with most other generation options to one degree or another, nuclear being the worst after a prolonged shutdown. Under certain types of grid failure, black start capability is a real problem...

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garyp on August 20, 2008 - 3:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks.

The concept comes out of thoughts on terrorism and black swans, but it applies to the systems of a post peak world - which is something I've been considering.

Of course we could suffer through the slow collapse of those systems we've built up in the peak peak world. However the reality is the transition into the world we here tend to expect is likely to happen through one or more of these shatter events. Sudden catastrophic failure, rather than slow decline - on a civilisation level.

Oil, I feel, is not likely to be at the centre. Rather something that oil maintains that shatters is likely to be highlighted as the cause. Probably electrical power in some form - so much of what we call civilisation has that at its heart.

Any thoughts on what systems can shatter would be welcomed.

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andybts on August 21, 2008 - 3:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, interesting stuff. What about road/rail/air traffic signaling? Could the mass failure of this be catastrophic to our just-in-time delivery systems, or would it be manageable?

I think the theft of electrical cable for sale as scrap seems like one of the scariest tendencies. This is happening increasingly now.

Another worrying thing is that I've heard reports of people following oil/diesel delivery trucks in order to identify where there are storage tanks that are worth stealing from, and are inadequetly protected. Many of the targets are small farms, who then often then need to pay for the clearup costs (where oil has leaked), as well as the repairs to the tanks, and the oil itself.

I'm only familiar with the UK environment by the way.

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156 comments on Oil Demand Destruction & Brittle Systems

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