 | 10 Fundamental Principles of Net Energy Analysis | The Oil Drum: Net Energy | The IEA WEO 2008 from the Perspective of Biophysical Economics |  |
125 comments on Charlie Hall: How much oil and gas will increased drilling provide? Geology's Answer: Not Much.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
125 comments on Charlie Hall: How much oil and gas will increased drilling provide? Geology's Answer: Not Much.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
User login
Contact
- theoildrumeroi at gmail dot com
Personnel
Archives
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
You should use "search the oil drum with google" by entering key words. Having done this you had found the following links:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/8/222920/5485
www.theoildrum.com/node/3673
www.theoildrum.com/node/2693
www.theoildrum.com/tag/unconventional_natural_gas
www.theoildrum.com/node/3726
www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/11/12/0150/4833
etc. etc...
Those links are all old, and don't address the recent phenomenon that SeanTOD is talking about. The referenced report from the EIA is dated June 11, 2008.
Euro,
It's funny you should suggest doing a Google search. I read TOD almost every day as well as keep up on the energy markets via the financial news. What I've been hearing from companies in the US nat gas business does not match what I've read here over the years. The North American Nat Gas companies are talking about tremendous expansion in supply due to new drilling techniques.
Here? We get posts titled like this one where nat gas is lumped in with oil.
So I did a Google search on "natural gas statistics" and got the EIA page. A link on that page asked "Is natural gas supply increasing?"
The answer is yes. For North America anyway. You should check with Putin.
I would think this would be big news here.
The problem is the speed of decline of the new well technology. We are going to get a huge boost in production from Haynesville Shale - perhaps 1.5-2 TCF per year by 2012 which is almost 10% of our production. But the horizontal wells expected to be drilled decline 60%+ in the first year. If we keep stacking old wells and new production from unconventional gas plays we still have the same treadmill phenomenon witnessed on conventional gas plays - the shale plays only extend the start of overall decline. At the same time, these new bursts of production give the market false senses of lower long term prices, which make it likely incorrect longer term policy choices are made. Already natural gas use in electricity production is up 33% in past 4 years. I wonder how much of this is due to refinery needs....anyone with that stat please enlighten...
Sean TOD,
You should start a thread "Peak OIl in 2008 does NOT mean Peak Gas in 2008".
Many of the usual suspects on TOD don't grock this.
If we use the analog of the lag between peak U.S. oil and gas production (1971 to 2015?), we won't hit worldwide peak gas production until 2050 or so.