 | Geopolitical Disruptions #1: Theory of Disruptions to Oil & Resource Supply | The Oil Drum | High-Tech Hitchhiking |  |
146 comments on DrumBeat: August 15, 2008
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146 comments on DrumBeat: August 15, 2008
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This from Bloomberg last week
Thanks
Doesn't make much sense to me.
FF
Unless you assume current reported crude production is somewhat detached from reality...
Reported August production should be interesting. Looking as if it's going to be way down but no real figures yet.
So down, because demand is 'soft' as OPEC puts it?
Interesting.
What was masking this all along for first half of '08? The China pre-Olympics demand (as claimed by OPEC)?
No one in China can buy until the gov't works out either a price rise or a continuation of the tax rebates. Nobody knows what to expect, so everybody's sitting on their hands. And here we're taking inventories in crude and products down to the absolute possible bottom before anyone will do any buying. I imagine buying will be at an absolute minimum until the elections.
Signs that we're very close to or at the bottom: Even the people in here are thinking about unloading oil investments, all the media headlines are about the end of the commodity bubble, and all the vehicles in the poker room parking lots are SUVs again.
the vehicles in the poker room parking lots are SUVs again
A CRITICAL leading indicator !
Best Hopes for Price Elasticity of Demand,
Alan
Moe,
I really appreciate your insights on the market. I've read many-many posts of yours, so this time I'll keep it very simple by asking:
Do you think there is a floor to WTI spot in the ***PRESENT*** geopolitical and economic situation - and if so what's that level?
***PRESENT*** i.e.: coming recesseion in Europe, financial troubles everywhere, relatively strong dollar, relatively weak Chiniese demand and the BTC closed *** PRESENT***
(My reading of the situation very briefly: 107-108 floor now, prices in trading range between 110-130 until mid September, price spike in October and WTI spot at USD 150 in late November)
What's yours?
ROFL!
I do remember posting during oil's rise early this year that I didn't think $3.50/gal was high enough to cause lifestyle changes. I posted later that $4.00/gal looked like it was. Around here we're back in the $3.70 range, and I don't think that's high enough. Here's hoping gasoline moves back up to $4.00+.
BTW, it seemed to me oil had a nice close today. It looked like it had been trying to set up $113 as a floor. All week it has bouncing back up every time it dipped below $113. Today it as low as 111-and-change and stayed below 113 almost all day, until a rise late in trading pushed it back over 113 (~$113.50 at the moment).
In norway the price of gas is more than twice as high and they have high taxes on cars. I think some people prefer using the bus or a smaller car but some are still driving large cars.