Maybe, but I bet Georgia is feeling pretty ****ing stupid right now for sending 2000 of their soldiers to help W out on his adventure...

Antidoomer,

Half of Ukraine is waiting for Russia to claim it. The crimea and Donbass want to unite with Russia but Russia is lukewarm to this because of the cost of rebuilding their economies. They have been struggling to rebuild their economy and are finally over the hump.They don't have the money to invest in this project. However I could see the crimea joining Russia soon as it is very strategic for harboring the Black sea fleet.

Why would Russia ever militarily attack a NATO member when it could just withhold or raise the price of natural gas?

Are ya nuts?

It's true the US never explicitly provided a security guarantee to Georgia. All it did was hold up Georgia as a model for the rest of New Europe (to use Cheney's notorious phrase) to emulate, provide military advisors, and talk extensively (if vaguely) about the benefits that New Europe could realize by cozying up to the US. Do you think it's an accident that Georgia had the 2nd largest contingent in the Coalition of the Willing? Personally I'm pretty sure they expected some kind of quid pro quo for that.

And the quid pro quo was that the US would insulate them from Russian pressure. Instead what they got was TV images of the president of the United States covorting at the Olympics while Gori burned. Fact is the whole episode has sent an unmistakeable message not only to Georgia but the other former Soviet republics about what American support is really worth when push comes to shove.

Bottom line: not a hell of a lot.

Antidoomer, you're joking right? A full scale NATO vs. Russia war?

Do you really think NATO countries would risk a war with Russia over those ex-Russian satelite countries? I don't think so. They're just not worth it.

Antidoomer,

here is some polling information regarding the situation.

"If a referendum on unification of the former Soviet republics into a new alliance would be held today, would you vote in favour of the alliance or against it?"

Rus UKR BEL
In favour 51 45 36
Against 22 25 32
other/not sure 27 30 32

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/14064

My own Note: 45% percent of Ukrainian people want Unification with Russia. However this encompasses all Ukraine. The percent among the Eastern part would problably approach 80-90%. Firther more this poll was taken in wake of gas pricing disputes with both Ukraine and Belarus.

"However in spite of most citizens regretting the Soviet Union dissolution the quantity of those who is ready today to vote for a unification of former union republics into a new union during a hypothetical referendum are less than those who “regret”. At that if in Russia almost a half of population (51%) voted for a new union, in Ukraine a little bit less (45%), in Belarus unification spirit is significantly weaker, here only a third of population (36%) would support unification. In Armenia 49% would vote for unification, 41% would vote against it (more than in other countries)."

Dan

Antidoomer:

Some info On Ukraine's NATO "aspirations" as the MSM likes to call it:

In regards to Ukraine joining NATO:
The poll revealed that 54.9% of respondents would vote against joining the military alliance if a referendum were to be held tomorrow, and that 22.3% would back joining NATO.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080506/106712138.html

Why our are the leaders of Ukraine and the USA trying to drag Ukraine into NATO against the will of their people? Is this how democratic countries behave.

Dan

I wouldn't speculate too much in that direction.

It could have very well been a provocation to push Russia into this war, which could be used as a wildcard against it at later stage. But the reaction of the West made me think it's not that, not this time... they were cautious in their reactions at first, and tried to exploit the alleged Russian overreaction at much later stage.

Personally I am attributing this simply to the opportunistic craziness of Saakashvily. That guy is a psycho, you can not just offer cease fire during the day and shell a city full of civilians in the night. I have nothing against Georgians, they are people as everyone else, but they are simply out of luck with their leaders - and they have a long history of that.

Reading this info sheet about Russia's natgas exports and other related data helps one appreciate the strength of the Russain energy position and the weakness of its adversaries.

"... Russia still holds all the energy cards". More than true.

One-tenth of America’s electricity comes from fuel made from Russian nuclear warheads. The Megatons to Megawatts program converts highly-enriched uranium in Russian weapons into low-enriched uranium that is used in US civilian nuclear power reactors.

Russia has shown reluctance to part with it and if a worldwide energy crisis is triggered expect the worst from them regarding honoring and extending uranium supply contracts.

UlfHeiden,

From Intel:

"We at Intel have a saying: Give the urgent projects to the Americans, big projects to the Indians, and the impossible ones to the Russians. The Russians can do anything, "says Steve Chase, the head of Intel's branch in Russia.

To further support your argument at this very moment the following large companies are expanding their operations in Russia. GM,Ford,Caterpillar,Bosch,Siemens,Pepsi,Coke,Intel,Mitsubishi,Hochtief,bombardier, Volvo, Magna - Actually I think every major corporation is.

The Soviet Union left Russia with a few good things(Not many).
1. The best science and engineering education system in the world
2. good mass transit.

From Global Insight:

Remarkably, today's Russia may have the right combination of talent, expertise and cost to be the location of choice for development of financial technology, specifically for complex software engineering and R&D projects. For one, Russia keeps producing: More than 2 million people work in more than 4,500 R&D centers throughout Russia, with at least 1 million being researchers and scientists. This is far more than in any other country. A vast majority of Russian software engineers and computer programmers holds MS or PhD degrees in mathematics or physics. With a significant R&D heritage, one of the world's best educational systems and a tremendous pool of software engineers, Russia has become a key location for R&D work for many leading American and European companies. This list includes Bechtel, Boeing, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Motorola, and Sun Microsystems, among others.

Russians are known for their unconventional approach and complex problem-solving capabilities. "We at Intel have a saying: Give the urgent projects to the Americans, big projects to the Indians, and the impossible ones to the Russians. The Russians can do anything, "says Steve Chase, the head of Intel's branch in Russia. While India and China lead the way in number, overall size and revenue volume of outsourcing vendors, Russian IT companies are often built on the "boutique" vs. "wholesale" approach, focusing on solving advanced R&D problems. Thus, most large projects demanding standardized solutions are often outsourced to India, and specialized R&D tasks go to Eastern Europe.

Ossian revenge? Very good point.

And after what has happened (whatever the physical evidence might eventually show, it is clear the Ostians already believe Georgia's attack was an attempt at ethnic cleansing)--and considering the Caucasian propensity for vengeance and feuding--this seems more than likely.

I would agree that the Georgian pipeline--and all future projects--are dead.

Which is why, as I posted below, Turkey suddenly seems to be looking to Russia, not Georgia, for future energy projects.

It is hard to believe the US thought its Georgian war through. Maybe the White House thinks it worth it to elect McCain, but the strategic cost is . . . just . . amazing.

dparkins,
Ever wonder how ethnic Russians in Tbilisi feel?

http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1071955.html

Forty-three-year-old Ilya serves as an acolyte at the Russian Orthodox Church named after Aleksandr Nevsky in Tbilisi. He arrived in Georgia from his native Volgograd seven years ago.

Ilya says he's praying the confrontation between Russia and Georgia does not end up affecting ordinary people like himself living in Georgia. Already, hundreds of Georgians have been expelled from Russia for alleged illegal immigration. Russia has imposed a series of measures against Georgians living in Russia, despite Tbilisi's release of four Russian soldiers accused of spying.

Ilya says the deterioration in relations between Georgia and Russia has not yet been reflected in his life. "I am from a simple, working, peasant family," he says. "I got married in 1991. Fate brought me here in 1998 together with my child, and I stayed. For me, personally, nothing has changed. Nothing at all. I continue to receive warmth and love, the lack of which I have never experienced from the Georgian people."

Family Quarrel

In the church where Ilya serves, all services are performed in the Russian language. The parish is comprised predominantly of ethnic Russians.

Sixty-one-year-old Sergei Davidov goes to the church almost every day. Davidov is unemployed. The church serves more than just his spiritual needs. Davidov always carries a bowl to church to collect soup, which the church provides for the poor, free of charge.

Davidov finds it difficult to speak about the strained relations between Georgia and Russia. "The Soviet Union is long gone, but we still consider ourselves as members of the same family," he says. "Seeing the family members quarrel naturally makes me worried. I am not experiencing any physical pressure, of course. But morally, I am very down, for we have a very bad, confrontational situation."

Deep Roots

Some 119 Georgians accused of illegal immigration were deported from Russia on October 10, the second group of Georgians to be expelled in less than a week.

Despite these tensions, School No. 72 in the capital, which provides instruction in Russian, has also remained insulated from the dispute.

Ludmila Likonzeva is the school's vice principal. Born in St. Petersburg, Likonzeva has been living in Georgia since 1968. She says the Russian government's policies bear no resemblance to the attitudes shared by the Russian people.

"We are very hurt to see all this," she says. "We keep receiving phone calls from our native towns. People call and ask us not to believe what we're hearing. We are by your side, they say. We love Georgia and Georgians. They are worried. We married Russians. This is our motherland. Our children and grandchildren are here, and we are not going anywhere. We praise our state and provide the youngsters with strength and love, so that out friendship is strong and eternal."

Rejecting Xenophobia

Anatoly, a pupil at School No. 72, says his parents are not planning to leave Georgia. "The school is very nice. I like it here a lot," he says. "I have nice classmates -- Georgians, Russians, Armenians. My sister used to also study here. Now she is a student at an institute."

Anatoly's parents, who are both ethnic Russians, run a shop in Tbilisi. Georgia's tax police, in contrast to Russia, have not started inspecting shops and restaurants on account of the owners' ethnicity.

Education Minister Kakha Lomaia says the Georgian government has no plans to follow the Russian leadership's example. "Our response is [from] a democratic, tolerant, open, pluralistic society," he says. "Our response is [based on] the values we share. First and foremost, it is to defend human rights. Georgia has always been far from xenophobia and discrimination, and this will surely remain unchanged."

No Politics In The Kitchen

Despite Russia's ban on Georgian wine and mineral water, Russian alcohol and food appear to have retained their popularity among Georgians. Matrioshka, a Russian restaurant in the center of Tbilisi, offers fine Russian cuisine.

Nikolai, who works at the restaurant, says that, despite the worsening political situation, the number of Russian food aficionados has not dwindled in Tbilisi.

Natia sips a cold Russian beer while she waits for her delivery of hot pilmenis. Is she considering a change in her culinary preferences because of the political tensions between Russia and Georgia? "No, there is absolutely no chance politics can interfere with the kitchen," she says.

This is how it is in a FREE country like Georgia.

Enjoy your dark dreams of Greater Russia!
(It's a great country with amazing people).

God save the Czar(Vladimir Putin)!!!
http://www.hymn.ru/index-en.html

I don't exert the effort to give Majorian negative clicks, but considering the quality of his comments in several areas, and particularly the tone in which they are delivered, I can't be surprised at the downgrades. I don't think it's due to 'unpopular conclusions' much at all.

Check engine, you really need a complete overhaul.

A map of the Democratic Republic of Georgia 1918-1920 (pre-Stalin) shows both Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be within the national borders as they do today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Republic_of_Georgia
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/41/DRGMap.png

Under the Soviet Union, it probably didn't matter much either way, but with the disintegration of the USSR, those peoples refused to be part of "Georgia" and fought to keep their autonomy.

You really have no idea what you are talking about.
These folks are a bunch of hillbillies.

For example just before the 1991 breakup there were far more Georgians in Abkhazia than Abkhazians. Today the country is run by an ex-bank guard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia

South Ossetia was the center of an international counterfeiting ring in 2006. The country is run by a former wrestler who doesn't believe in democracy, rather 'caucasian values'.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia

Crimean Tatars at press conference declare Crimea is rightfully theirs and demand to return to their homeland.

Circassians in a joint statement issued from Ankara demand compensation for ethnoc cleansing at hands of Russians in 1800s.

I could go on with 40 more similar claims from peoples driven from the Caucasus, Southern Ukraine, and Southwestern Russia over the last 200 years. The historical evidence is that ethno-national groups move or are pushed from locale to locale over time. The European nation-state idea with fixed national borders is an historical annomally and has caused a lot of harm. It will likely erode and then cease to exist as climate change prompts vast movements in populations toward the end of this century and the next. Borders between peoples are an artifact of competition. But if large numbers of humans are going to survive in the longrun, they must learn to cooperate, which will destroy borders.

El: Shalom and thank you for mentioning the truth so
many fear to declare.I was wondering when or if the 800 lb gorrilla would get mentioned.
Heres Israel meddling in an area it has no business in
and while they dont have enough on their plate at home? Oy Gevelt!
The MSM ignores the Israeli factor like leprosy.
The people on this thread are amazing at their knowledge and reasoning.

Said by enemy of state:
The fault is not just with our leaders, but is shared by the people who fall for the same emotional/political manipulation nearly every time.

The same thing can be said for the Russian people believing the Russian propaganda. The vast majority of the Russian people do not learn anything more than what the Putin controlled Russian media tell them. At various sites I have read many emotional posts from Russians finding great justification for Russia's actions based on the allegation of genocide against Saakashvili. I strongly suspect these allegations could only be "proven" in a Russian court like the one Mikhail Khodorkovsky found himself occupying.

U.S. leaders and principal presidential candidates are not acting like testosterone crazed teenagers. They are acting like loud-mouthed cowards yelling and trembling in the distance as they watch a friend mauled by a hungry bear.

At this point in time, it is important to give the Russian people the message, that we would never try to do that (cleanse/kill).

I am not sure who exactly is included in your definition of "we", but the preponderance of evidence suggests that the US government is more than happy to cleanse (see NATO-occupied Kosovo, which has been cleansed of 98% of its pre-war Serbian, Goran and Gypsy population) and kill (see hundreds of thousands of people killed in Iraq) to reach its political goals. The Russian people would be wise to take note of that.