307 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #4
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307 comments on Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #4
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GAIA Host Collective
Are ya nuts?
It's true the US never explicitly provided a security guarantee to Georgia. All it did was hold up Georgia as a model for the rest of New Europe (to use Cheney's notorious phrase) to emulate, provide military advisors, and talk extensively (if vaguely) about the benefits that New Europe could realize by cozying up to the US. Do you think it's an accident that Georgia had the 2nd largest contingent in the Coalition of the Willing? Personally I'm pretty sure they expected some kind of quid pro quo for that.
And the quid pro quo was that the US would insulate them from Russian pressure. Instead what they got was TV images of the president of the United States covorting at the Olympics while Gori burned. Fact is the whole episode has sent an unmistakeable message not only to Georgia but the other former Soviet republics about what American support is really worth when push comes to shove.
Bottom line: not a hell of a lot.
You could almost wonder what the prize here is. Clearly the BTC is undamaged and is likely to continue that way. And what do the US corporations and banks really care about whether Georgia is unified or not? However this appears to have been the catalyst that brought about the signing of the missile shield agreement with Poland. In a short time, with missiles in place, the US will have "nuclear primacy", and Russia will have no choice but to follow US corporate and banking dictates delivered by whichever president has been installed in the oval office to cater to their needs.
Most US corporations are very weak; many are going bankrupt or are seeking additional capital which dilutes equity, while others having ofshored their operations aren't really US corporations any more. The Doha trade round failed, which means the uS corporate agenda failed. The banks are in even dire straits; many financial corporations are bankrupt, trillions of dollars in caital valuation no longer exisis, and the whole of the US financial system hangs by a very thin thread of foreign investment.
In other words, the powers you say are going to dictate orders to Russia are very close to not having a pot to piss in.
Exactly right.
The events of the past 10 days have provided ample proof, if any was needed, that Russia is an ascendant power.
And the US? After 5 years of war and occupation?
Would it not seem to be prudent to Russian generals to now probe and test US force projection capabilities?
A proxy war would useful- if only both sides had reliable clients.
Absent that, the tension builds.
I thought history was over and the world was flat and now that Russia has McDonalds we needn't concern ourselves with them...remember that?
Maybe Georgia didn't have a McDonalds.
while some businesses are failing and will fail, there seems to be no real threat to the central bank, yet. Nor have the oil majors seen a decline in profits, yet. And while I agree with you that it is coming, it could be a few years off still. And yes these are the guys that are calling the shots. Cheney brought them all into a room for secret meetings in 2000, and I imagine the recent follies are the outcome of their meetings: WTC 1,2, and 7, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and of course the continual boxing in of Russia. Anyway who do you think guides foreign policy and for what ends? It ain't you or me, except in some bazaare trickle down rational. If the world were fair Russia with all its energy would be a rising star. I think the missile shield has less to do with Iran and more to do with Russia. Do you think otherwise? If the Internaltional corporations and banks aren't calling the shots, do you think Bush and Cheney have acted independantly for the common good?
Lexington:
You are correct in your astute analysis. However Gori did not fair as badly as MSM would have you believe:
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29033 (Link with video)
Gori was the staging grounds for the attack on South Ossetia therefore it recieved an inordinate amount of attention in the ensuing counter-attack.
Dan
Lexington,
another disturbing aspect is the pre-text under which the USA began militarizing Georgia:
There is, however, one small kernel of truth in what is otherwise a rather self-serving argument: In 2002, when the U.S. began providing military assistance and training to Georgia, both the Washington and Tblisi claimed there was evidence of Al Qaeda hiding out in Georgia's Pankisi region (similarly, there were articles, like this one in Time, titled "Inside Al-Qaeda's Georgia Refuge"). Those early claims appear to have evaporated, however. In 2006, the Dallas Morning News ran an article repeating what many have come to believe in the years since: there never really was credible evidence of Al Qaeda in Georgia. The article quote a Tbilisi-based analyst saying: "I personally would not link al-Qaeda with Pankisi in any way whatsoever."
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/05/russia-tallies.html
Dan