Very good post. BTW, what does the RRC show for the recent decline in Barnett Shale production?

FYI--Texas has shown an increase in annual natural gas production, because of the Barnett Shale, but we are still one-third below our 1972 peak rate, and it took four times as many wells in 2007 as 1972 to bring production up to two-thirds of our peak rate. This is the nationwide problem that we are facing, as we replace large conventional wells with generally lower volume unconventional wells, generally with a faster decline rate.

westexas,

Thanks for the compliment.

I included the production figures for the Barnett Shale in the table, far right column.

Since the Barnett Shale and other resource plays have received so much media attention recently, I thought there might be interest in those.

Sorry, I missed it on the first pass. Wow--from a peak rate of 3.0 BCF per day to 2.2 in less than a year, even as the number of producing wells increased. This is an annualized decline rate of 47% per year.

When I started reading your post DS I figured perhaps the Earth is consuming oil faster than it produces it? You know, abiotic oil in reverse.

Seriously, that's worthy of a keypost in of itself. That decline in the Barnett Shale is staggering, if this is going on perhaps top down machinations are in play somehow. Caruso is stepping down next month, wonder if he has a skeleton in the closet or whistle to blow here?

This is a piece from Matt Simmons calling into question EIA data: Matthew Simmons on Inventories « Crude Oil, which is excerpted from his PDF Anothern Nail in the Coffin of the Case Against Peak Oil. In case you haven't read these.

There has never been a government audit to see how many stock data reporters actually take a physical measurement. There is no penalty (or reward) for efficiently completing what one could argue is the world’s most important glimpse into our country’s fuel supply.

Regarding the IEA, Birol has stated in interviews that government intervention will in all likelihood be necessary to cope with supply falling short of demand. SailDog will perhaps expand on that.

When I started reading your post DS I figured perhaps the Earth is consuming oil faster than it produces it? You know, abiotic oil in reverse.

GREAT OBSERVATION!!!!
ROFLMAO

Yes, and this gets reflected in the financials of those operators that are heavily committed to the exploitation of these shale plays.

Take Chesapeake Energy, for instance. Direct from its own financial statements, look what is happening to costs:

                                          Investment in
Quarter          Oper. Costs           Property & Equipment
                 (per MCF)         (per MCF produced during qtr)
Q2-2003           $2.27                     $58.86
Q2-2004            2.60                      63.54
Q2-2005            3.11                     120.80 
Q2-2006            3.90                     116.52
Q2-2007            4.50                     154.00
Q2-2008            4.73                     142.71

In the last five years, production costs per MCF have increased by 208% while the amount of investment required to produce an equivalent amount of gas is up even more, by 242%. Gas prices, however, have increased only 142%, from $5.64 in Q2-2003 to the current $8.11.

If some pretty hefty increases in the price of natural gas are not in the offing, I would question the continued economic viability of these resource plays.

this is precisely what one would predict in a declining net energy environment. On top of this, there are going to be water (and other environmental) restrictions on some of these unconventional plays, raising costs even more. Even though a discounted cash flow would suggest that Haynesville gas can be produced at $1-2 per mcf - they still need very large upfront capital costs AND permissioning from local authorities (water, etc.)

All this recent news suggests to me new higher floors on the energy commodities, but not necessarily commensurate increases in the energy stocks.

I need to dig up the rig counts again from rigzone. But we have most of our rigs drilling for NG in the shale plays. Given the decline of the Barrnet Shale and the fact that the more of this we bring online the more we have to drill it will be impossible to keep up and the tighter the rig market gets the higher the cost of drilling.

In short these guys are looking at a exponential increase in cost going forward to even keep production levels the same. Throw in a dash of EROI and ...

Next of course we will continue to have production declines in traditional plays.

My opinion is that in time the shale plays will behave pretty much like the tar sands they will be a produced at a fraction of the overall reserve levels. We can and will continue to produce them for value add production like Ammonia synthesis for a long time.

This and the TOD post are really interesting.

Can somebody answer the obvious question?

Assuming declining production, increasing costs, then what sense does it make to inflate production figures too high?

Shouldn't the supposed production glut bring seller prices down, cutting into already diminishing producer margins?

I think the motivation for this gaming of the system is political. In other words, the EIA, IEA and other energy reporting agencies controlled by the West are trying to create a favorable (but false) impression of the world energy/finance picture during the last few months before the US presidential election. Energy producers and refiners sympathetic to Western businesses know that this strategy will cost them money in the short term, but they are looking forward to the long-term "benefit" of helping to elect a president favorable to their interests.

This is why the price of oil in the US has fallen, and why the price of gasoline continues to fall, even though there is abundant evidence that we are draining down our petroleum inventories. But I don't think the game can last much longer. We certainly won't make it to November without a major price spike, in my opinion.

Same opinion here we will not make it to Nov 26 without a price spike so this big game is not directly about the election since it ends before the election. Therefore the only other big thing TM is and attack on Iran.
This would make Mcain very electable as even the dumbest American realizes that we probably just started WW III.

Also my Obama/Hillary prediction was a complete flop.

But besides this we are seeing right now whats probably the last big push to keep the economy going and it has the form of a very short term boost that will not last. I'm convinced it has a reason and that it won't end without some sort of return on investment and I'm also convinced it can't extend past the election.

Also my Obama/Hillary prediction was a complete flop.

At least one element of "big money" still seems to think it might happen

Hillary Clinton’s rich friend Lady de Rothschild ambushes Barack Obama

Rothschild has not yet made up her mind. “I haven’t ruled out voting for McCain,” she said. “I like him a lot.” She is waiting to see who Obama picks as his running mate and has her heart set on Clinton.

The Rothschilds have agents in both the McCain and Obama camps. They know how to hedge their bets and play both sides. It amazes me that the inbred bas!@#$s are so adept at covering their bases. It could be Hillary.. it would be the smart choice.. BUT Obama basically gave her a public smack down because of her last minute efforts to secure the vice presidential nomination.

My opinion (and as a UK citizen I have no say): Without Hilary, Obama loses. With Hilary he might win. Obama has been deliberately pushed too far too fast. If he's stupid enough to believe it's all about him then so be it. Let's see what happens. I'm not counting Hilary out yet...

Btw, I'm not a particular Hilary fan but Stewart/Colbert 2008 isn't an option :)

Sadly I have to root for Mcain to win. Simply because I believe if it looks like Obama is going to win regardless of the ticket Bush will attack Iran. But even with this Mcain would need to be showing a massive lead to prevent and attack before the elections. I think if the US is in a war situation post and Iranian attack Mcain will win but that does not do us any good.

The best short term outcome is for Bush not to attack and Mcain to enter office since it could then take 1-2 years to set up for and attack on Iran. However I question if the Israelis will hold out that long.

Barring this and Obama win and and attack after the election.

The outcome I of course hope for is and Obama win and no attack.

Personally as far as the Middle East is concerned and its oil I could care less if it get involved in a major war or if Iran gets nuclear weapons etc. We need to look past our oil dependencies and I'm convinced we can put in electric rail at a reasonable rate with basically no ME oil. It may be very tough but it can be done.
Given that our other option is a US/Israeli initiated war I don't see a winner.

The sooner the US turns inward and focuses on its own problems at home the better off every one will be in a bigger sense.

For Iran I really don't see a bright future regardless of the outcomes I think that their exports will continue to dwindle no way they can put in Nuclear Power fast enough to solve their energy problems. Internally the country is in really bad shape.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=175358

http://www.iranfocus.com/en/special-wire/iran-inflation-rate-rising-ten-...

They have 26% inflation rate.

The point is that even if things are left alone Iran is heading for disaster at the moment.

Someone on CNN this morning predicted that McCain would pick T. Boone Pickens as his VP.

Now that might be interesting...

If he picks TBP that would be political suicide. From what I understand TBP doesn't particularly like McCain which is why he isn't swiftboating Obama this time around.

I'm not sure an Obama/Hillary ticket benefits anyone. Including Hillary.

Hillary has high negatives of her own; I think she could lose Obama as many voters as she brings him if she's the VP. Or more. Obama would have to deal with not only Hillary, but Bill, who was far more upset about Hillary losing than Hillary was.

And Hillary is probably better off not being on the ticket. If they lose, or if Obama's first term is a disaster, she's damaged goods if she's VP. If she's not, and Obama goes down in flames, she'll be the "I told you so" candidate - the one the Democrats will be wishing they'd picked.

Its a tough call and to be brutally honest Obama will be a potential target of the lunatic fringe in the US.
Especially if the economy really heads down towards a president.

Hillary as VP stands better odds then normal of becoming president. Knowing what I know about Hillary I'm sure she has considered this.

If she is VP should could easily take and outspoken stance if Obama seems to be foundering and be isolated.
So she could easily play the I told you so ticket as a VP.

Its a tough call but whats important about this election is in my opinion not who the winner is because honestly the problems are overwhelming only a broad scale change can handle what seems to be coming. The right answer or path will if we decide to take it will be taken with our without the presidents help.

Barring this it does not matter really I think who is in office.

The only thing I really give a rip about is getting Bush out of office without and attack on Iran.

Just recently I reach the point that I don't give a rip about the geopolitics of the end of the oil age
all I care about is if the powers that be can be held off long enough for people to realize the real problem is oil and if people can finally start rejecting oil and all its geopolitical woes.

However I'm becoming increasingly concerned that this won't happen and that geopolitical maneuvering will lead to significant reductions in the oil supply and people won't even realize that under this depletion was the real cause.

The problem is that the depletion problem has to become blatantly obvious before we will see support for moving off of oil. Look at our site we routinely get people who review the facts but still feel like some technological solution will save the day. The world has to go through this and it may well take years before they admit that no we don't have enough oil and we need substitutes. All of this has to happen in a incredibly tense geopolitical situation without above ground factors causing major problems.

I don't have a lot of hope but I sure will breath easier once Bush is out of office regardless of who wins that a step in the right direction.

Just recently I reach the point that I don't give a rip about the geopolitics of the end of the oil age all I care about is if the powers that be can be held off long enough for people to realize the real problem is oil and if people can finally start rejecting oil and all its geopolitical woes.

So you don't care about the geopolitics of end of oil age as long as people reject those geopolitics? Works for me, too.

It strikes me that ultimately Bush - or anyone that replaces him - will want to start a world war as a way to stay on top of the heap during the necessary powerdown. A limited world war of course. Start might not be the right word; it has already started.

Obama or Hillary would do the same as Bush or McCain. It's in the national interest for the political class they represent and it's not like any of them are defrocked liberation theologians.

An attack on Iran would do exactly as you describe. Mask the depletion under a long standing war and boost the military-industrial complex at the same time - supporting the existing political class. The downslide will - for those of us in US - look like it's the fault of bad operators around the world. Us against them forever. I don't know if Russia, Chindia and other global players are going along or not; in this game of musical chairs everyone will be cut out sooner or later.

Emmanuel Goldstein

Hillary will never be President. If she couldn't stand up against a black man from a half Muslim family... she will always be too weak to be president. No matter how much support she had, her real problem was how little support she had. She might get the "I told you so" candidate title, but I doubt she will make it beyond Senator. People have rejected what another Clinton presidency represents... and Obama is the name of that rejection.

I was sure that Obama would be the next president since at least last December, but he's made some critical mistakes which is basically all that can keep him out of office. He already lost the support of Israel and Big Oil. The other factor that hasn't been explored much is race. In past elections people have said they would vote for a black candidate, but in the privacy of the voter booth they didn't do it. We'll see in a few months how much of his support remains...

I doubt he'll pick Hillary, but it would be his best bet.



The US economy is going to need a mighty big push if it is to keep going:

For the first time since the Revolutionary War, ... America has had to turn to foreigners for financing, because US households have been saving nothing. The numbers are hard to believe. The national debt has increased 50% in eight years, with almost $1-trillion of this increase due to the war — an amount likely to more than double within 10 years. Who would have believed that one administration could do so much damage so quickly? America, and the world, will be paying to repair it for decades to come.



http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/08/americas-war-to...

After LBJ and Bush, Texas doesn't have such a hot track record when it comes to presidents.

You have summed up my suspicions about what is happening pretty well. Obama was talking about windfall profit taxes, while McCain was coddling the oil industry. McCain has two very powerful segments of support which are Big Oil and Israel.

As for price spike, I won't guess about the timing of the next big spike... but I think we will hit $200. Unless it turns out that KSA is being honest and everybody here has been making flawed models. Call me a cynic.. :)

Excellent question, SamuM, one for which I have no good answer.

Some, but certainly not all, of the oil and gas producers engage in hedging to soften the effects of the market vagaries. If one goes to Chesapeake's 10Q (Quarterly report) for Q2-2008, for instance, one can find a listing of various kinds of swaps, derivatives, hedges, call options and collars the company has (pp 43-44).

But not all oil and gas producers use these derivative instruments, nor do those companies who do have instruments to protect 100% of their production. So I would say almost all companies have at least some exposure to the market.

Curious...
Chesapeake to spin off midstream natural gas unit

HOUSTON, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is planning to spin off its natural gas gathering unit but the company would not say what form the business will eventually take.

In June, the Oklahoma City-based company said it had temporarily delayed plans to raise capital through the sale of a minority interest in its gas gathering or midstream business, a move that had been expected to bring in $1 billion.

The firm on Monday declined to reveal its plans for the as yet unnamed business, offering only that the spinoff was meant to extract value from its assets.

BTW, one point to check on is if the EIA is counting total gas, i.e., gas wells + casinghead gas. However, as you noted, the figures were in agreement in prior periods.

In this regard the EIA is a little vague as to its sampling methodology:

Two volumes are requested from respondents:

(1) “gross withdrawals (wet),” which is full-bore well stream gas minus lease condensate, oil, and water; and

(2) “natural gas lease production,” (sometimes referred to as “sales production” or “gas available for sales,”) which indicates the net amount of produced gas that leaves the lease to go to natural gas processing plants or directly to end-users.

The Texas Reailroad Commission, however, does make the distinction and casinghead gas production constitutes only about 2 BCFPD of total natural gas production, so leaving that out wouldn't be enough to explain the difference.

That is very helpful, because another idea of where the nat gas could come from was blowing off gas caps.

RE: Downsouth's Texas gas production table.

Please forgive my ignorance, but this table, (as is the case with a number of tables, graphs, etc.) does not "fit" in the window that I can see. That is, the right hand portion does not show up, so that I cannot see, in this case, the Barnett shale information.

Does anyone know what I can do to see it all? I am running Windows Vista, and enlarging, etc. does not work.

Jbunt, if you were running XT then you would click on "Start", then "control panel", then "appearance and themes". There set screen resolution to 1280 - 960. That would do it.

However I don't guess that works with Vista. But Vista MUST have a way to change the screen resolution. Try googling "Vista changing screen resolution". That should tell you how to do it.

In MS Explorer, which I'm using, one can go to "view" and reduce the text size from "largest" or "larger" to "medium" -- then the whole chart can be viewed.

Or just type ctrl + (control key and + sign) to Zoom in or ctrl - to Zoom out.

In Explorer? I don't think so. That does work in Firefox, though.

Cheers

In addition to Darwinian's suggestion to up the screen resolution, (apologies if this is obvious) but please also click the Full-screen icon at the top right of the browser screen (between the X to close and _ minimize)if you haven't already done so. This gives the browser more space to display the charts/text.

The reason I mention this is because it is unlikely if you are running Vista on a new machine that you would be at a screen resolution too low to display the above table correctly in full screen mode (I reckon you'd need to be at 800*600 which you wouldn't normally expect a Vista machine to be running at). If you are using full screen mode then follow Darwinian's suggestion or get someone who can help to do it.

If it's not a new machine and you have updated an old machine with Vista it can happen that Windows defaults the resolution to a lower value depending on drivers and questions during setup but you should still be able to change it.

It's also , of course possible, that someone has intentionally adjusted your resolution and/or font (text) size to make it easier to read.

Oh, finally - nearly forgot -if you have a sidebar open (left of browser window) then close it. Hope this makes sense.

Many thanks guys - sorry that it was embarrasingly so simple.

DownSouth - In your first post, you said that you included the East Newark field from the Barnett Shale. When I went to the site, the Texas RR commission listed 13 fields that had Barnett Shale, including the East Newark. Did you add them all up??