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240 comments on DrumBeat: August 21, 2008

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mcgowanmc on August 21, 2008 - 10:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But that was, what, two weeks ago?

Do these people have to actually register the decrease on some
meter before they realize that no oil is moving thru Georgia?

I don't think so.

Not with the number of times I've seen trades of buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Which in the case of Georgia the past two weeks would be "sell the rumor, buy the fact".

But you're right.

Zero oil is moving thru Georgia now.

when it used to be 1 mbpd.

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PaulusP on August 21, 2008 - 10:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The capacity of the BTC pipeline is 1 mbpd, but at the time it went off-line it was pumping 800 kbpd.

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mcgowanmc on August 21, 2008 - 11:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But that's just the BTC.

Oil was also moving by rail thru Batumi and the Baku Supska pipeline.

1.2 mbpd was the figure I think.

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Euan Mearns on August 21, 2008 - 3:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The BTC will reopen next week.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKLK16589820080820?sp=true

The utter drivel written in the MSM is exemplified by this:

Its closure had supported world oil prices, which fell initially on news that it was reopening.

I think we are witnessing a technical rebound from an oversold position - volatility on an exponentially rising uptrend.

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 21, 2008 - 3:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The BTC will reopen next week

If the Russians want it to.

Qatar and Iran talked about reducing world oil exports to support prices. The Russians did something about it !

The geo-political-economic calculus on this one is "above my pay grade".

Alan

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Euan Mearns on August 21, 2008 - 4:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan, the BTC was shut by Kurdish separatists in Turkey blowing it up. It has now been repaired and is undergoing pressure testing.

I am prepared to listen to conspiracy theories about the Russians being involved in the Turkey attack (Turkey is a member of NATO and the OECD) - but do you have any evidence?

I would also entertain the idea that Russia may be eyeing Caspian oil.

One European perspective might be that Russia is a much more reliable supplier of oil and gas than is the USA.

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 21, 2008 - 5:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The Kurds blew up/shut down the pipeline two days before their invasion of Georgia.

The Kurds had never attacked the pipeline before (in general, infrastructure attacks are not, AFAIK, part of their standard operating procedure).

A Russian operative with some money and promises could have motivated the Kurds, and probably did IMHO (circumstantial evidence only).

The money from oil exports is the KEY to the Russian economy. Lower prices are NOT good ! Russia has a major infrastructure program that will cost many billions, and they simply need high oil prices.

Alan

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BlueTwilight on August 22, 2008 - 1:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Inspectors in Turkey are reporting that the BTC pipeline was not bombed.

BP Says Unclear When BTC Pipeline Will Be Repaired, Bloomberg, Aug. 15, 2008

The Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, said it bombed the link as part of its campaign for autonomy in southeast Turkey. Inspections of fire damage at BTC show no sign the fire was caused by a bomb...

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 22, 2008 - 8:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I case you have not noticed, Russia has extraordinary leverage over BP (I was about to write that they have "their nuts in a vise").

"Truth is the first casualty of war".

Alan

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totoneila on August 22, 2008 - 8:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hello TODers,

I hate to say it, but reality seems to be taking more plot twists and turns than a Tom Clancy novel:

All kinds of conflicting reports on GoogleNews relating to whether a Russia-Syria alliance means the basing of an Iskandar missle system on Syrian soil. Purely for defensive purposes; same as the Patriot ABM Battery in Poland. Additionally:

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/21/europe/EU-NATO-Black-Sea.php
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BRUSSELS, Belgium: NATO warships entered the Black Sea on Thursday for what the alliance said were long-planned exercises and routine visits to ports in Romania and Bulgaria.
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http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/2940/53/
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The Russian aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” is ready to head from Murmansk towards the Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open for a Russian base in the area. The “Admiral Kuznetsov”, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission will also include the missile cruiser “Moskva” and several submarines, Newsru.com reports.
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240 comments on DrumBeat: August 21, 2008

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