269 comments on DrumBeat: August 24, 2008
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What would I recommend? I have always recommended that one get together with like minded people and form kind of a "farming community" with all the houses in one place with everyone armed to the teeth. But even if you did this, what would be your chances of being among the survivors? They would be higher no doubt, but still probably not all that great.
Bottom line Tstreet, there is simply no way of knowing how the collapse will pan out. There is no way of knowing just how fast things will collapse but I think most people are way too optimistic. Of course they are. It is simply in our nature to see the bright side of things and expect the best. I am reminded of Monty Python's "The Life of Brian". As they were all being crucified they were all singing "Always Look on the Bright Side of Life."
I agree with creating communities of small farms, and no reason not to have some defensive capability in place.. but 'Armed to the teeth' starts painting a self-fulfilling prophesy. I think what you do to start preempting the likelihood of roving bands and worse, town to town (MicroKingdom) conflicts is to establish trading ties and develop 'community to community' diplomatic tools for heading off the growth of any kind of 'Warlord Society'..
If any part of Life of Brian comes to mind here for me, it would be the People's front of Judea battling in the imperial halls against the Judean People's Front for the honor of, what, kidnapping the Roman Legate or something?, while the Roman Guards stood on the side of the hall and watched them decimate each other. Feudal Futility..
'For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin - give the audience a grin
Enjoy it - it's your last chance anyhow.' -Eric Idle
(ps, while 'blind optimism' was the joke, it wasn't the entire message of the song, was it?)
Bob
The average global income is about $900 US a year. A guesstimate would be that the average income of a person reading your post is approx $60000 US per year (only 67X greater than the global average). You talk about the effects of oil depletion on the average person, but there aren't very many average humans (measuring in income or wealth) reading you or Greer. Rising energy and food costs cannibalize from the bottom up, which is why the elite are unconcerned generally.
your point is valid but the level of income needed in america to be a 'normal citizen' is way higher than in other poorer countries so the ratio is far lower than 67X
True, but "we" aren't mostly average humans (in terms of income or wealth). Anyone on this site that has even $200000 US (after liquidating all assets) could put it in a few Cayman banks-this would throw off at least $10000 a year in income-which would be more than enough to live in a lot of these poorer countries. Supposedly $48000 US per year puts one at the top 1% level in terms of annual income-my point is that we are living on an extremely poor planet and most of us are closer to the top of the pyramid than the bottom.
A friend once said that that there are two kinds of revolutionaries: Marxist and Gandhian.
What Darwinian is suggesting sounds Gandhian - if we take away the weapons, which, after all, define the Marxist revolutions. Again, the people with the average global income can not afford weapons, unless we are talking about sticks and stones.
Astroboy, I am not a revolutionary. I am proposing no revolutionary action whatsoever, Marxist or Gandhian. If I thought there were some revolutionary action that would fix things then I would be the world's strongest revolutionary. But the world is deep into overshoot, and no revolutionary action whatsoever will fix that. Sadly, nature will just have to take its course.
Even your $900 average is skewed. Most people on the planet daily experience energy and food shortages. Peak Oil nor Climate Change won't change this dynamic much; exacerbate it, yes; but change the basic dynamic, no. The people to be most effected will be those with the most prosthetic devices enabling them to enjoy the last months of the "Age of Exuberence." They/we have a very steep and tall cliff to topple over, while most of the planet's people are already at the cliff's bottom. As for the elite being "unconcerned generally," that is probably true due to ignorance, but their position depends totally on the ability of the lower classes to support them. Peak Oil and Climate Change will withdraw this support, and many current millionaires will be no better off than those already at the cliff's bottom. So, in the longterm, the elite are just as vulnerable as everyone else--especially WRT Climate Change as many have assetes that will be erased by sea level rise.
Optimism was possible during the Great Depression because it was a crisis existing during very visible abundance of food and energy, AND the federal government wasn't yet owned by Big War, and was thus far more responsive to the crisis. I do not beleive the same will be said of the current crisis, which has yet to be recognized as one by most people. For one, future availability of energy is already seen as iffy, and rising costs for food amid rising unemployment and declining expectations along with the recent examples of toxic food reaching the market show food security to be iffy, too. So the specter of Shortage is already present in people's minds. Current polls showing less than 10% approval for Congress and somewhat equal disdain for BushCo reveal that most of the citizenry understand, albeit at a superficial level, the federal government is no longer responsible or responsive. So it seems appropriate to loom for the coming signs of the Great Despair.
+1 greenie for your sentiment.
At the beginning of the Great Depression (so-called), the U.S. was at the pinnacle of its potential, and that power would be realized over the next three decades.
Now it looks more like the 4th century than 20th century
The foederati was the Roman idea of subsidizing those barbarian tribes Rome needed to defend the empire. In short it was a nice way of saying that the Romans were no longer willing to fight in their own armies so they were looking for others to work at the jobs the Romans wouldn’t take. We call it the hiring of mercenaries.
This policy had put a huge number of people on the Roman payroll notably the Attacotti, Franks, Vandals, Alans and the Visigoths (western Goths).
http://www.lewrockwell.com/case/case16.html
It is hard for old guys to be anything other than sad at the opportunities squandered. It is harder yet to generate enough energy to get out and protest this nonsense any more -- the criminals have beaten us down for good.
The Alans are now the Ossetians that do not want to be part of Georgia.
Alan
Does "Ossetia" mean "fromBigEasy" in some Eastern European language? ;-)
whose payroll are they on now? Not the Romans', it would seem.
Putin's
OK, smart ass, following your "logic" the Kosovo Albanians are on NATO's payroll. NATO even held joint military exercises with the KLA in northern Albania before the 1999 attack on Serbia. So much for all of your "humanitarianism" and professed belief in the "freedom of choice" and "democracy".
Never,I am at 53,and getting sorta old.I see the opportunities lost+,be I see many on the horizon,that,If the knowledge is not lost,may work society in ways we can only dream
I think the next great step will be biological,as that science can in many ways be done with smaller energy inputs than others I am aware of...and yes I remember the threads discussing this.
We may have a dark age ahead of us as a result of overshoot,but when we humans get our act together I still have faith we will reach the stars....ad astra
Hold that thought!
It will take huge effort to clean out the criminal element that runs our world. Of course, it can be done if people will only wake up. What will it take to throw off the blinders? Not force of reason, that is for sure. And efforts for reform are so often co-opted by the criminals and turned to their advantage.
One way I shut people up about my heritage, and that of everyone else, is to say I'm a German, that is a Spaniard, a region settled by/given to the Visigoths, that leads into a discussion/admission that we are all mutts, ethnicly, and then occasionally I end the conversation by bringing up the African Eve hypothesis that forces us all to admit we are black African at our core. This really twists some folks's knickers as they have no rebuttal.
My kin were citus and vineyard ranchers in Southern California before, during, and after the Depression; and I've collected interesting stories from them, although I wish I'd asked more questions before most of them passed away. I made the period a special point of study as I pursued my History degree, because you cannot understand why/where we are today without understanding that period, which for me also includes WW2.
Although I won't concede victory to "the criminals," I do admit they currently have the upper hand, but I do see their demise. Because they want all for themselves and refuse to be cooperative, they will eventually die off and become relics. The depletion rate of fossil fuels even provides a timeline. The coming paradigm change means evolve/adapt to the new circumstances and norms needed to accomodate them or die. A primary factor will be the change from competition to cooperation, a cultural aspect that the US and most OECD countries are illequiped to handle. One of the most famous songs from the Depression Era is Billy Holiday's God Bless the Child, but few today recognize its great satirical aspect. I find comfort in taking the long view and can imagine a great deal of positive change 5 generations (100 years) from now. In the meantime, I'll go fishing and grow my garden, while enjoying one of the best palces to be for the coming change--Oregon.
Although I'm better prepared than most people, my goal has been to buy time. As someone noted down thread, stuff is going to break and wear out. My preparations are a window of opportunity that permits me to make rational choices (I hope) as things devolve.
One point I have made before is to forget about "self-sufficiency" and, instead, focus upon "self-reliance." Sure, things like alternative energy systems may be important but, equally important, will be useful skill sets.
Todd
Great insights Todd.
Todd-- what do you include in the list of useful skills?
Gardening
Farming
Animal husbandry
Fiber production
Bee keeping
Food preservation
View,
I'd certainly include all of those and add a lot more. Some may seem out of place if things collapse but I believe will be useful non-the-less:
Engine mechanics (If push comes to shove I'll convert some of our stuff to wood gas)
Carpentry
Masonry
Plumbing
Electrical (AC/DC)
Hunting/gathering including fishing and trapping
Butchering
Welding/blacksmithing
Roofing
Tanning/sewing/weaving
Timber felling
Alternative medicine/EMT training
That's enough for now and far more than anyone can be fully proficient in. My point is that many of these skills (and the ones you listed) are "normal" for country people like myself. The only option in many cases is to muddle through. While a person may not have journeyman skill levels, they will not usually make serious mistakes.
And, of course, many of these have sub-specialties such as food preservation - hot water bath canning, pressure canning, dehydration, smoking, potting, juicing, etc.
Todd
This is a long list of skills for one person to be proficient at! I, for one, will be conducting a scavenger hunt for new friends with these skills. Bartering is really an underrated system ;) In all seriousness though, are we not talking about an eventual return to villages where you have a blacksmith, a butcher, a baker, and a candlestick maker (trying not to lose my seriousness!)
God forbid we have lives without one stop shopping...
"Things are always the best they possibly could be in this best of all possible worlds".
Prof. Pangloss, from Voltaire's "Candide, or Optimism"
There was a certain logic to Dr. Pangloss' optimism:
"They can't get any worse, and they won't get any better, clearly, it's the best of all possible worlds."
The only problem with that sort of "optimism" is that things most assuredly will get a lot worse.
In the immortal words of Molly Ivins:
"Texas liberals are different from other liberals...Texas liberals know it can get worse"
Except, that line of thinking lets far too many people in positions of power and responsibility get off the hook far too easy. The truth of the matter is that very different decisions could have been made by various key people at various points in the past, and those decisions could have resulted in a scenario that would look far less dire and stark than the one we are facing. Voltaire's whole point was that the world truly made life far more miserable for more people than things had to be, due to many people behaving badly when they could have behaved better. Realism might require recognizing that people do act that way, and thus thus the world is that way, but it need not require believing that people had no choice, and thus no responsibility, for their actions.
Well yes, Voltaire was all about satire.
And people do have choices, and choices have consequences. However, at a certain level, the consequences for criminal action are remunerative to the criminals, and the mass of people seem to accept that as "God's will" or some such. What is that all about?
Voltaire described it and satirized it -- I don't think he had any better idea than I do how to break out of it.
For years now I've made it known to my family and friends that I wish this song to be played at my eulogy.