Dan, I'm intrigued by the notion that "some areas are moving towards solving peak oil and others are already fairly well buttressed against the effects."

Could you (or anyone) specify what areas you have in mind, and what evidence of resilience.

I'd have thought that Pakistan, Haitii, Indonesia and much of Africa (etc?) are already very much suffering the effects. Just because they are poor countries doesn't mean they are not dependent on globalised high-tech and aid from G7 countries.

Memmel: "Peak everything". No. just looking at merely my piano, peak ivory, peak ebony, and peak soundboard pine were all long ago, not to mention peak craftsmanship. Quality buckskin for the keys action has also become scarce. Probably other woods such as pear too. Whale-oil? Furniture used to be rountinely made from solid oak and elm (the latter now extinct in uk). Hopefully peak japanese knotweed but I wouldnt count on it.

Re predictions of civil war - I think many people here continue to severely underestimate just how low-technologically-crippled everyone has become. In aftermath of any breakdown of globalisation, people will be desperately struggling to merely survive (ie find food) to such an extent that they'll have no time or energy for warmongering even on a local scale.

There'll be a huge die-off from starvation/stress/disease. And soon the population will be so much lower that the survivors will have more need to cooperate than conflict.

PS to memm- you do post some(times) interesting ideas but if you could make your posts a bit briefer they might fit better in the limited reading time of myself and many others! (Though I appreciate this can be difficult.)