64 comments on Supply and Demand on a Full Planet - ASPO VI Speech by Nate Hagens
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64 comments on Supply and Demand on a Full Planet - ASPO VI Speech by Nate Hagens
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Sorry Nate, you seem like a really a good guy, so I'm really sorry to say this, but your view of cognition is so biased by western economic philosophy it is quite frustrating to listen to you.
There are so many objections I have, I can't even begin to address them. Here are just a few points.
1) There are other "big picture" views of cognition in which emotional parts of the brain regulate the "cognitive" parts of the brain in a more symbiotic relationship rather than the "either, or" scenario you present.
2) Normally functioning humans are quite capable of regulating (for example) their food intake. Breakdowns in that regulatory process are a) NOT the norm (morbidly obese Americans are still a minority) b) often traceable to other emotional issues.
3) You sneak in many evolutionary "just so" stories. One struck me for the pure inconsistency of your arguments: You said: Homo sapiens sapiens evolved in a time of scarcity (I'm roughly paraphrasing you here) and then proceed to basically say that we're unable to plan for the future. Well, how did our ancestors survive? In my evolutionary "just so" story, they survived by planning for the future in times of scarcity. Just because Americans are unable to plan for the future does not mean that humans as a whole are unable to plan for the future. Consider the possibility that this phenomenon is driven by social cognition, rather than anything inherent in the human brain.
4) Reasoning biases are NOT proof of anything. a) Reasoning biases are not robust and highly representation dependent. IIRC there was a study recently published (I'm talking last 20 years) in which people were asked to make probability judgments based on provided percentages (in one condition) and based on set representations e.g., one in ten people blah blah blah (in the other condition). Subjects in the "set" condition did just fine. Reasoning biases are just as likely a subset of a much broader phenomenon related to specificity effects and corresponding "failure to transfer," which have absolutely nothing to do with our reptilian brain and have everything to do with cognitive efficiency, nothing more.
5) There is no conclusive evidence of "selfishness" or a "selfish gene" that drives the bizarre, twisted logic of economics, and from which most of your reasoning about cognition seems to derive.
I could go on and on. Please, read outside of your field a little.
I suspect that it might take more than "a little reading" to catch up on all that is known or that is reliably conjectured about human cognition. And it seems if we want to explain how people respond (or not) to PO we would have to invoke the behaviors of social groups and the influence of culture, politics, and emotion rather than about how brains work. How brains work is important to understanding individuals, but the problem with our inability to do anything about PO is primarily cultural and social in origin. And groups of people behave very differently than individuals, as evidenced by:
I, too, have trouble thinking about the modern "morality" of business and its apologist, economics.
At any rate, I would guess that some of the conclusions that can be made about "our inability to plan" may involve stories about our culture more than about our fundamental properties as humans. But perhaps the actual origin of the behavior doesn't matter after all, because the culture I'm living in really doesn't seem at all interested in planning for the future. Unless something changes really soon, the reason for our not changing until it's too late is going to be of no practical interest.
Science Ed Guy,
With due respect, I submit that this argument is wrong headed.
The human brain is composed of many cognating centers rather than just one. To think of it as a massively parallel computing machine would be wrong because the brain is not "intelligently designed". However, modeling the brain as a MIMD machine might be a good first, although crude step.
The different parts of the brain argue with each other just like people in our society argue and have conflicts. Have you ever been of two minds about a certain topic? If yes, how could that be? Don't argue with yourself too much about it.
The human brain has emotion driven centers (i.e. the limbic layer) and this is why "emotional" arguments work in our society. You cannot separate how the individual brain works from how and why our societies function as they do.
The battle outside starts with the battle within.
____________________________
We are not who we think we are. That's just a false although convenient model.
I read so much out of my field that I'm not sure what my field is!
Are you a social scientist? There is only so much I can fit into 30 minutes. I never said our brains were 'either or' only that different systems were built on top of others -clearly there is interplay. I would recommend this piece on habituation and addiction a version of which is pending peer review in Journal of Behavioral Ecology, coauthored with some of the referenced authors.
I have had a very difficult time communicating these ideas to social scientists. I understand the problem with 'just-so' stories, but the science of mirror-neurons being the origin of culture, relative fitness being drivers of competition, and conspicuous consumption being driver of our behaviour are not my original ideas. I've just ordered a new book by Geoffrey Miller, "Faking fitness: The evolutionary origins of consumer behavior". The brain sciences (NOT social psychology) are all over these concepts - they just don't understand thermodynamics and oil depletion yet. My girlfriend suggested instead of speaking about neuroscience at an oil conference that maybe you should speak about oil at a neuroscience conference...;-)
So forgetting everything you said and I said, do you think telling people the 'general' facts about peak oil is enough to effect change?
Nate, think yourself lucky you didn't choose to make a speciality of studying human behaviour (as I did myself) else you'd have had to confront this sort of ideological trash-throwing at the heart of your life-trajectory rather than on the periphery. Regarding there not being a gene for selfishness, it should be evident to the neutral observer that we have innate tendencies towards both selfishness and helpfulness, which conflict, and the resolution of that conflict has to be constantly reworked (as is the subject of so many literary works etc).
Both of us know that telling people the facts will change almost nobody. However, this phenomenon (people refusing to believe the evidence in front of them) has nothing to do with the subject matter and nothing to do with humans' supposed inability to plan for the future. Let me quote from a paper by Herbert Lin (1983). This is a college physics student describing his/her process of learning physics:
Tell me, what does physics have to do with planning for the future? Do you see my point? Our tendency to ignore the evidence spans all human endeavor when that evidence requires us to change our belief systems. Obviously I'd put Thomas Kuhn at this point on my recommended reading list. And most importantly, belief systems are socially constructed and mediated, not "cognitive" in the "in the brain" sense of cognition. They are "in the world" cognition if you like. That is why I would argue that communicating peak oil successfully is a framing issue (see Deborah Tannen, and more recently, George Lakoff for further reading on the topic of frames).
How we (actually how "they") Model our Models
Nate,
It's not simply about discounting the future,
it's also about discounting models of the far off future.
To give you an example, if a climatologist told us that based on his models, a hurricane is coming tomorrow, we would tend to give that warning serious weight.
On the other hand, if a climatologist told us that based on his models, a hurricane is coming two weeks from now on Thursday at 5:00 PM, we would tend to give that far into the future warning very little weight because we know out of experience that models of the far off future tend to be wrong.
The same cognitive phenomenon applies to Hubbert's curves except that "we" on the TOD board do not view a Hubbert's model the same as does a member of the general population. To "them" it's just another easily discountable model of the far off future. To us, it is a well studied and thus very close to the heart model of what scientifically must unfold even if the timing is a bit off.
So the cognition problem is not just that of discounting the future.
It's also about discounting models of the future.
dtbks: - I agree with you on this. In my experience the greatest intellectual defect of the human race is inability to unthink an already existing viewpoint. But bear in mind that some people are a bit better at it than others. Individual differences are substantial and important.
But in confidence-shattering times of crisis, when belief systems start to break down, more people at last (too late) can do this unthinking. And yet still many will just not make it and die of brain-strain.
Hi Folks,
Ah excellent - Kuhn at last! There is also another less heard about chap called Jaques Ellul, (The Technological Society. Trans. John Wilkinson. New York: Knopf, 1964. etc) who wrote about humankind's fascination with technology - ways of doing as ways of being - I paraphrase him here, but I think you get the point. Also Zigmunt Bauman's 'Modernity and the Holocaust' also points out the dangers inherent in the ability of technology to distance humans from the reality/consequences of their actions. This ties in with Milgrams 'Perils of obedience' experiment. I agree that cognition comes into the equation, if only to become cognizant of how embedded in 'some-thing' or 'some-reality' one already is...
Also the focus on the brain is a very western bias (from Descartes et al), whereas eastern philosophy put the centre of cognition as the heart, and more recent scientific research has begun to give credence to this: "In essence, it appeared that the heart was affecting intelligence and awareness."(From: http://www.heartmath.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28&It...)
Lastly, the new science of epigenetics may well put paid to a lot of Darwinian determinism, (that is the concept of the chemical environment surrounding genes changing both the genome and its function as opposed to purely selection of inherited/mutated traits/characteristics) (see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/ghostgenes.shtml & http://www.nature.com/nature/supplements/insights/epigenetics/index.html)
L,
Sid.
We need many many more people who do exactly that! BTW, Nate, have you ever heard of Lambros Malafouris? I think if he is anywhere close to being right we may find the consequences of Peak Oil to be many orders of magnitude more viscerally debilitating than any of us would care to imagine.
Somewhat akin to losing many of our extended senses while at the same time having our artificial limbs torn from their stumps. Not to mention that since it was futile to resist and we were assimilated into the borg we are now on the verge of all being tossed out of the garden of eden to fend for ourselves by the sweat of our brows. Not a happy thought for most people. So I think I can understand while so many people want to continue to try to find solutions for maintaining BAU at any cost.
http://revminds.seedmagazine.com/revminds/member/lambros_malafouris/
Wow. What an absolutely horrid criticism. Worry not, Nate and let this one slide off your back.
dtbks is talking about "cognition" as the squishy unmeasurable consciousness/meme of the day...it's anti-empirical and especially anti-psych. In short, it's constructivist crap.
Say what you mean, sir and stop hiding behind pretense--what you mean to say is that psychology and evolutionary biology, and science writ large, is a dysfunctional base of knowledge that does not deserve to be listened to.
From the dripping condescention of your post, "dtbks", it seems you consider yourself wise indeed in these matters. One is at something of a loss, then, at the light weight of your comments themselves.
Evidently.
Many of which are flat-out delusional. Which is your favorite? You don't seem to have clarified it other than to note that it's symbiotic, and that's not exactly a deep insight, particularly in the way you offer it. Of course the functions of the brain have evolved to be symbiotic, and Nate did not - to my ear - imply otherwise.
On the other hand, a huge percentage of your ostensibly well-regulated eaters believes their personalities will go on living when their body dies. Food regulation and metabolism has all sorts of feedbacks and is perhaps not the best example, (though I'd say it's a good one: morbid obesity is not the only consequence of gluttony). But abstract concepts dancing about in the neocortex are a different story.
When summarizing the entire mental evolution and energy situation of the human race in a half-hour, one may be forgiven for a few "just so"s. So what? I don't see that you have shown any inconsistency in Nate's arguments here, could you point it out? Indeed, your argument seems to be an "appeal to authority" where you're the authority. The point that Americans may be worse at planning than some other cultures is a reasonable one, but I don't see that Nate has argued otherwise.
Say, could you possibly be more sloppy, less rigorous and use more opaque jargon? Something was published in the last 20 years IYRC "blah blah blah"... Clearly you have read something at some point, IYRC, but it isn't coming across in your comments.
Dude, for my money, you have.
Y'know, you have a long way to go in a followup post to establish that you're not high on crack, much less to begin to refute what Nate has outlined. Maybe a keypost?