I read so much out of my field that I'm not sure what my field is!

Are you a social scientist? There is only so much I can fit into 30 minutes. I never said our brains were 'either or' only that different systems were built on top of others -clearly there is interplay. I would recommend this piece on habituation and addiction a version of which is pending peer review in Journal of Behavioral Ecology, coauthored with some of the referenced authors.

I have had a very difficult time communicating these ideas to social scientists. I understand the problem with 'just-so' stories, but the science of mirror-neurons being the origin of culture, relative fitness being drivers of competition, and conspicuous consumption being driver of our behaviour are not my original ideas. I've just ordered a new book by Geoffrey Miller, "Faking fitness: The evolutionary origins of consumer behavior". The brain sciences (NOT social psychology) are all over these concepts - they just don't understand thermodynamics and oil depletion yet. My girlfriend suggested instead of speaking about neuroscience at an oil conference that maybe you should speak about oil at a neuroscience conference...;-)

So forgetting everything you said and I said, do you think telling people the 'general' facts about peak oil is enough to effect change?

Nate, think yourself lucky you didn't choose to make a speciality of studying human behaviour (as I did myself) else you'd have had to confront this sort of ideological trash-throwing at the heart of your life-trajectory rather than on the periphery. Regarding there not being a gene for selfishness, it should be evident to the neutral observer that we have innate tendencies towards both selfishness and helpfulness, which conflict, and the resolution of that conflict has to be constantly reworked (as is the subject of so many literary works etc).

So forgetting everything you said and I said, do you think telling people the 'general' facts about peak oil is enough to effect change?

Both of us know that telling people the facts will change almost nobody. However, this phenomenon (people refusing to believe the evidence in front of them) has nothing to do with the subject matter and nothing to do with humans' supposed inability to plan for the future. Let me quote from a paper by Herbert Lin (1983). This is a college physics student describing his/her process of learning physics:

...the things I see in physics are completely different than what I would normally expect them to be... Even though I've seen it in lab, I say "OK, I'm just going to pretend it's true," and I work the problems like that...

Tell me, what does physics have to do with planning for the future? Do you see my point? Our tendency to ignore the evidence spans all human endeavor when that evidence requires us to change our belief systems. Obviously I'd put Thomas Kuhn at this point on my recommended reading list. And most importantly, belief systems are socially constructed and mediated, not "cognitive" in the "in the brain" sense of cognition. They are "in the world" cognition if you like. That is why I would argue that communicating peak oil successfully is a framing issue (see Deborah Tannen, and more recently, George Lakoff for further reading on the topic of frames).

So forgetting everything you said and I said, do you think telling people the 'general' facts about peak oil is enough to effect change?

How we (actually how "they") Model our Models

Nate,
It's not simply about discounting the future,
it's also about discounting models of the far off future.

To give you an example, if a climatologist told us that based on his models, a hurricane is coming tomorrow, we would tend to give that warning serious weight.

On the other hand, if a climatologist told us that based on his models, a hurricane is coming two weeks from now on Thursday at 5:00 PM, we would tend to give that far into the future warning very little weight because we know out of experience that models of the far off future tend to be wrong.

The same cognitive phenomenon applies to Hubbert's curves except that "we" on the TOD board do not view a Hubbert's model the same as does a member of the general population. To "them" it's just another easily discountable model of the far off future. To us, it is a well studied and thus very close to the heart model of what scientifically must unfold even if the timing is a bit off.

So the cognition problem is not just that of discounting the future.
It's also about discounting models of the future.

dtbks: - I agree with you on this. In my experience the greatest intellectual defect of the human race is inability to unthink an already existing viewpoint. But bear in mind that some people are a bit better at it than others. Individual differences are substantial and important.

But in confidence-shattering times of crisis, when belief systems start to break down, more people at last (too late) can do this unthinking. And yet still many will just not make it and die of brain-strain.

Hi Folks,

Ah excellent - Kuhn at last! There is also another less heard about chap called Jaques Ellul, (The Technological Society. Trans. John Wilkinson. New York: Knopf, 1964. etc) who wrote about humankind's fascination with technology - ways of doing as ways of being - I paraphrase him here, but I think you get the point. Also Zigmunt Bauman's 'Modernity and the Holocaust' also points out the dangers inherent in the ability of technology to distance humans from the reality/consequences of their actions. This ties in with Milgrams 'Perils of obedience' experiment. I agree that cognition comes into the equation, if only to become cognizant of how embedded in 'some-thing' or 'some-reality' one already is...

Also the focus on the brain is a very western bias (from Descartes et al), whereas eastern philosophy put the centre of cognition as the heart, and more recent scientific research has begun to give credence to this: "In essence, it appeared that the heart was affecting intelligence and awareness."(From: http://www.heartmath.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28&It...)

Lastly, the new science of epigenetics may well put paid to a lot of Darwinian determinism, (that is the concept of the chemical environment surrounding genes changing both the genome and its function as opposed to purely selection of inherited/mutated traits/characteristics) (see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/ghostgenes.shtml & http://www.nature.com/nature/supplements/insights/epigenetics/index.html)

L,
Sid.

I read so much out of my field that I'm not sure what my field is!

We need many many more people who do exactly that! BTW, Nate, have you ever heard of Lambros Malafouris? I think if he is anywhere close to being right we may find the consequences of Peak Oil to be many orders of magnitude more viscerally debilitating than any of us would care to imagine.
Somewhat akin to losing many of our extended senses while at the same time having our artificial limbs torn from their stumps. Not to mention that since it was futile to resist and we were assimilated into the borg we are now on the verge of all being tossed out of the garden of eden to fend for ourselves by the sweat of our brows. Not a happy thought for most people. So I think I can understand while so many people want to continue to try to find solutions for maintaining BAU at any cost.

http://revminds.seedmagazine.com/revminds/member/lambros_malafouris/

The mainstream approach to cognition holds that it happens in the mind and that material culture is nothing more than an outgrowth of our mental capacities. Archaeologist Lambros Malafouris is challenging this deep-seated idea with a radical new notion: the hypothesis of extended mind, which posits that material culture is not a reflection of the human mind but an actual part of it. Take, for instance, a blind man's stick. "Where does the blind man end and the rest of the world begin?" he says. "You might see the stick as something external, but it plays a very important role in the perceptual system of this person. It extends the boundaries of this human—the stick becomes an integral part of the cognitive architecture."

If material culture is an extension of human cognition, our engagement with it has actively shaped the evolution of human intelligence, Malafouris argues. For example, ancient clay tablets that allowed people to actually write down records were not mere objects, he says. Instead, they became integral adjuncts of the human memory system. The invention of such a technology "changes the structure of the human mind," says Malafouris, a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge.