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136 comments on Hurricane Gustav and Energy Infrastructure - Early Open Thread

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westexas on August 27, 2008 - 11:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The long term problem facing the Gulf Coast is the rapid decline in oil shipments from the proximal producers--Venezuela & Mexico (VenMex)--which will force the refiners to rely on much longer supply lines, from Africa and the Middle East, subject to the overall world supply/demand situation.

I had expected that we would hear calls for a release of oil from the SPR by the end of the summer, specifically because of crude supply problems on the Gulf Coast--my premise being that refiners would have problems fully offsetting the decline from VenMex. It looks like I was wrong, and to give credit where credit is due, I suspect that the primary reason that we have not heard calls for SPR releases (specifically tied to the Gulf Coast) is because of declining demand (which is Datamunger's point).

However, in May, 2007 VenMex accounted for more than 25% of US net petroleum imports, and as of May, 2008 their combined petroleum shipments to the US were dropping at an annual rate of 27%/year. Venezuela is currently on track to approach zero net oil exports around 2027. Mexico will probably approach zero net oil exports in the 2010 to 2012 time frame.

Regarding the hurricane, it looks like our key problem is going to be gasoline supplies. Using a Minimum Operating Level (MOL) of 170 mb, we have about 63 hours of supply in excess of MOL.

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mcgowanmc on August 27, 2008 - 11:54am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The US barely survived Katrina.

If Gustav hits at the same force/location

The US becomes a different place.

One example:

Will the the CSX railroad be rebuilt across the Rigolets.

And will it be rebuilt along I-10 in MS like
CSX wanted after Katrina.

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theantidoomer on August 27, 2008 - 12:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The US barely survived Katrina.

What on earth are you blathering about now? Show me any proof whatsoever that we "barely" survived as a country.

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mcgowanmc on August 27, 2008 - 1:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Blathering"?

Ihold with all statements I've made that the US never recovered from Katrina.

Name one thing in the US that's improved since Katrina?

Of course you think that the Financials have absolutely nothing
to do with Katrina at all.

That housing peaked in 05? Nothing whatsoever.

Come on back. Love talking to people channeling Cheney.

How do you think that bush got that 71% disapproval rating?

;}

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Nate Hagens on August 27, 2008 - 1:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Name one thing in the US that's improved since Katrina

Population and GDP.

Though I will grant that from a wide angle lens, neither of these necessarily represents an 'improvement'.

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mcgowanmc on August 27, 2008 - 2:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Population and GDP?

So as the pop grows we're better off with fewer resources available?

And GDP? Don't even get me started.

You wreck your car and the GDP improves.

GDP is so wrong a measurement scale I'm surprised you even brought it up.

"But, even so, there’s one thing I know, and that I knew even at the end of the day on Monday, August 29th, 2005, when I was one of the small group of people in the country who was aware the coast was buried under water, even as newscasters crowed (premptively as it turned out) that NOLA had dodged the bullet: the Mississippi Gulf Coast is never going to become a Homestead and Naranja Lakes, with grass slowly overtaking empty slabs. The surge and wind hadn’t even finished dying away when people started picking up the pieces, and they haven’t stopped."

http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_part10.asp

This guy and me were on the same page that day.

I knew what a CAT 5 storm was capable of.

My school, built to withstand Katrina was under 4 floors of water
(28').

Do yourself a favor and read the series this guy put together.
To see how unprepared NOLA now is.

And the Superdome/Convention Center are off limits for
storm shelter.

I wonder how many NO natives are aware of that?

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Stephen Hubbard on August 27, 2008 - 2:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think an interesting alternative to the GDP as a measure of U.S. economic health is

Infrastructure Quality/National Debt or

Infrastructure Spending/Annual Budget

Low spending and/or large debt, then we're not doing so well, which is the current situation.

In 2005, ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) gave the U.S. infrastructure an average grade of D, and said that we would need to spend at $1.6 trillion dollars, which I'm sure is now too low. Check out the link below. Its not a pretty picture.

National Infrastructure Report Card
http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=103

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westexas on August 27, 2008 - 3:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I had dinner with a couple of civil engineers recently. They said that we should expect to see more and more bridges falling down.

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Leanan on August 27, 2008 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I concur. Even without peak oil. With peak oil, it's going to be worse.

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GregTX on August 27, 2008 - 3:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

yikes!!

do they know where?

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Geckolizard on August 27, 2008 - 4:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In a Post-PO world, do we even need bridges...? At least for cars...?

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neon9 on August 28, 2008 - 9:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well without as many cars and trucks on them (esp. trucks) they should last longer...

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136 comments on Hurricane Gustav and Energy Infrastructure - Early Open Thread

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