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321 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

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mcgowanmc on August 30, 2008 - 9:32am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

It's time to leave New Orleans.

Go to I 20 to guarantee electricity.

Some history:

Storm FELIX: Observed by N #0
Storm #06 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #06: 09
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 02, 2007 23:07 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 13 40 ' N 72 43 ' W (13.67 N 72.72 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2601 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 163 Knots (187.45 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 12 Nautical Miles (13.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 45
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 152 Knots (174.8 MPH) From 142
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 12 Nautical Miles (13.8 Miles) From Center At Bearing 056
Minimum Pressure: 936 Millibars (27.639 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 25 C (77 F) / 2745 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 26 C (78.8 F) / 2806 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 4 C (39.2 F) / NA C (NA F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 152 KT NE Quadrant at 2252Z
2: Maximum SFC WND 163 FROM SFMR NE QUAD
3: EXTREME TURB NE EYEWALL

This pass was shortly followed by..

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX

From Sep 2, 2007. The key was 936 MB.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_1/00/i...

GFDL plot resolution: 26N 87 W has Gustav at 936 MB

If Gustav stalls/explodes North of Houma, gasoline will be $5
in a week.

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westexas on August 30, 2008 - 9:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jeff Masters' advice from yesterday:

With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest.

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mcgowanmc on August 30, 2008 - 10:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A BTW-

If I remember correctly, the first thing Wal Mart in NW AR ran out of in the week after Katrina
was water, limes, tortillas, sugar.

And Shell stations were the first to have plastic bags over the
pump handles.

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DIYer on August 30, 2008 - 9:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Good t'hear y'all were prepared in the tequila department! :)

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steve from Virginia on August 30, 2008 - 9:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I may buy a bicycle ...

August 28 – Dow Jones (Brian Baskin): “Tropical Storm Gustav will have more and bigger offshore energy targets to hit than the 2005 hurricanes did, should the storm stick to its projected path through the central Gulf of Mexico. In 2005, only two platforms produced more than 100,000 barrels a day; this summer, six are producing at that level or are preparing to do so. Since 2005, oil and gas production has increasingly shifted to deeper water off the coast of Louisiana, with a handful of giant platforms generating volumes once produced by dozens of small, shallow-water facilities… ‘There are a lot of things in the industry that have improved since the ‘04 and ‘05 seasons, but at the end of the day, it’s going to be a question of how destructive storms are and how powerful they are when they go through the Gulf,’ said David Dismukes, associate executive director of the Center for Energy Studies at Louisiana State University."

Deeper water means greater wind intensity.

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321 comments on Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

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